Excess probability

Excess probability is the probability of an event occurring that is above the expected or baseline probability. It is the difference between the actual probability and the expected probability of an event occurring. For example, if the expected probability of a coin landing on heads is 50%, and the actual probability is 60%, then the excess probability is 10%. Excess probability is often used in statistical analysis to determine whether an event is statistically significant or not. A high excess probability indicates that the event is unlikely to have occurred by chance alone, and may be due to some other factor or variable.