用python实现蒙特卡洛预测足球比赛的代码

蒙特卡洛方法在预测足球比赛结果时通常用于模拟大量随机比赛，以得到基于概率的结果。这需要一些基本假设，比如进球的可能性、平局概率等。以下是一个简单的Python代码示例，使用了random库来模拟：

import random

# 假设参数
HOME_GOAL_PROBABILITY = 0.5
AWAY_GOAL_PROBABILITY = 0.45
DRAW_PROBABILITY = 0.05
NUM_SIMULATIONS = 10000

def simulate_game(home_team, away_team):
    home_goals = random.choices([0, 1, 2, 3], [1 - HOME_GOAL_PROBABILITY, HOME_GOAL_PROBABILITY * (1 - DRAW_PROBABILITY), HOME_GOAL_PROBABILITY * DRAW_PROBABILITY, HOME_GOAL_PROBABILITY ** 2])
    away_goals = random.choices([0, 1, 2, 3], [1 - AWAY_GOAL_PROBABILITY, AWAY_GOAL_PROBABILITY * (1 - DRAW_PROBABILITY), AWAY_GOAL_PROBABILITY * DRAW_PROBABILITY, AWAY_GOAL_PROBABILITY ** 2])

    if max(home_goals) > max(away_goals):
        return "Home team wins"
    elif max(away_goals) > max(home_goals):
        return "Away team wins"
    else:
        return "Draw"

# 模拟并计算结果
results = {result: 0 for result in ["Home team wins", "Away team wins", "Draw"]}
for _ in range(NUM_SIMULATIONS):
    results[simulate_game("Home Team", "Away Team")] += 1

# 输出预测结果的百分比
for result, percentage in results.items():
    print(f"{result}: {percentage / NUM_SIMULATIONS * 100:.2f}%")