关于粮食价格预测的外文文献
时间: 2024-01-09 07:01:56 浏览: 74
Title: Forecasting grain prices: a review of recent research
Author: Miguel Carriquiry, Bruce A. Babcock, and Dermot J. Hayes
Journal: Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy
Year: 2011
Summary:
This article reviews recent research on forecasting grain prices. The authors discuss the various approaches used, including statistical models, expert opinion, and market fundamentals. They also examine the strengths and weaknesses of each approach, and provide a summary of the main findings of the research.
The authors note that statistical models have been the most commonly used approach in recent years. These models typically use historical price data and other relevant variables, such as weather conditions and supply and demand factors, to predict future prices. While statistical models can be useful in predicting short-term price changes, they may be less accurate over longer time horizons.
Expert opinion, or subjective forecasting, is another approach that has been used to predict grain prices. This involves soliciting opinions from industry experts, such as traders and analysts, and using their insights to make predictions. While expert opinion can be valuable, it may be biased or influenced by personal interests.
Finally, the authors discuss market fundamentals, which involve analyzing supply and demand factors to predict future prices. This approach is often used by industry analysts and can be helpful in identifying long-term trends. However, it may be less accurate in predicting short-term fluctuations.
Overall, the authors conclude that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to forecasting grain prices. Each approach has its strengths and weaknesses, and the choice of approach will depend on the specific situation and the goals of the forecaster. They also note that the accuracy of any forecasting model will depend on the quality of the data and the assumptions made by the model.