美联储卖出与否的全球股票策略
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瑞信银行发布的《全球股票策略：美联储卖出还是不卖出》报告指出，投资者在考虑美联储卖出的问题时应该注意到瑞信与被研究公司有业务来往关系可能存在利益冲突，从而影响到该报告的客观性。因此，投资者应该将该报告视为投资决策的一个因素而非唯一依据。
这份报告是由瑞信银行的全球股票策略研究分析师Andrew Garthwaite、Robert Griffiths和Nicolas Wylenzek于2019年6月24日发布的。报告涉及了美联储是否应该卖出的问题。
然而，具体内容需要根据相关报告《瑞信-全球-投资策略-全球股票策略：“美联储卖出”还是不卖出？-624-27页.pdf》中的具体论述进行详细阐述。
24 June 2019
Global Equity Strategy 6
Why, then, do we think Fed policy can be effective on this occasion?
1. The Fed is likely to cut at a point when financial conditions are already loose
Financial conditions using the Chicago Fed or St Louis Fed indicators are loose. We
believe that there is more likelihood of creating an asset bubble and having policy working
when financial conditions are loose than cutting rates too late when financial conditions
are tightened. Only on one occasion in 1995 have we seen the Fed cut rates when
financial conditions were so loose. We can see that the looseness of financial conditions
does feed through to equity market performance, as we can see below.
Figure 11: In 1995, the Fed cut rates when financial
conditions were still loose
Figure 12: Loose financial conditions help equities
performance
Source: Refinitiv, Credit Suisse
Source: Refinitiv, Credit Suisse
Credit spreads are a key part of financial conditions. In all instances, credit spreads
widened sharply ahead of rate cuts. The response of spreads after cuts has varied: in
2007, credit spreads had a very brief rally before widening sharply. In 2001, credit spreads
were well behaved, suggesting that the problem in the equity market was principally one of
overvaluation (which saw tech shares fall by nearly 80%) rather than due to a sharp
slowing of the underlying economy. Significantly, now, the corporate sector remains in a
small financial surplus, in contrast to prior recessionary periods historically when the
corporate sector has always been in a deficit prior to a recession.
Figure 13: High yield spreads before and after first
rate cuts
Figure 14: The US corporate sector is still in surplus
Source: Refinitiv, Credit Suisse
Source: Refinitiv, Credit Suisse
-1.20
-0.70
-0.20
0.30
0.80
1.30
1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
Chicago Fed financial conditions index
First rate cuts
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-14 Nov-14 Oct-15 Sep-16 Aug-17 Jul-18 Jun-19
yoy % chg in Chicago Fed monetary Conditions
yoy % chg in S&P comp perf, rhs
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
-12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12
Jul-95
Sep-98
Jan-01
Sep-07
HY spreads, relative to
the start of rate cutting
cycle (in bps)
12 months prior to rate cut
12 months after start
of rate cut
0-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
US recessions
US corporate sector net balance ( net saving - net investment)
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