"2019 IMF/世界银行春季会议新兴市场宏观策略亮点"

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The document titled "JP Morgan - Emerging Markets - Macro Strategy - Highlights from the 2019 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings" provides an in-depth analysis of the key takeaways from the annual IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings. The report, compiled by J.P. Morgan Securities LLC's Global Emerging Markets Research team, offers valuable insights into the current state of the global economy, with a specific focus on emerging markets. One of the most notable observations highlighted in the report is the prevailing risk appetite for emerging markets, despite the apparent lack of compelling investment opportunities. The research team, led by Chair of Global Research Joyce Chang, cautiously expresses a bullish sentiment towards the emerging market landscape, acknowledging the presence of risk but noting the resilience and potential for growth in these markets. The report's analysis is supported by the expertise of key individuals within the J.P. Morgan team, including Luis Oganes, Jahangir Aziz, and Jonny Go. Their contact information is provided for further inquiries, reflecting the commitment to providing comprehensive and accessible research for clients and investors. Overall, the document serves as a valuable resource for anyone seeking a nuanced understanding of the current macroeconomic trends within emerging markets, as well as the broader implications of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings. The thorough analysis and insights provided by J.P. Morgan's Global Emerging Markets Research team offer a compelling perspective on the opportunities and challenges present in today's global economic landscape.

Global

Emerging Markets Research

Highlights from the 2019 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings

04 June 2019

Luis Oganes

(1-212) 834-4326

luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com

Policymakers are focused on keeping inflation contained and on the improvement in the

current account, both of which have made good progress. But investors are also focused

on how the large private sector debt stock will be dealt with and whether the Central

Bank has sufficient FX reserves to meet the needs of the economy. Concrete details of

the new economic plan outlined remain pending, keeping investors uncertain. There are

also short-term risks from the Istanbul election recount and US repercussions that could

come from the S400 missile purchases from Russia.

8. Venezuela’s interim authorities remain confident on regime change and indicated

that a future debt restructuring would seek to minimize holdouts and expedite a

return to capital markets. Authorities representing interim president Guaidó sent a

message that a restructuring would be carried out in a “friendly” way, though

acknowledging that an “important” haircut would be needed especially given the

additional decline of oil output post sanctions and blackouts. The interim government

intends to pay the Citgo-collateralized PDVSA ’20s so as not to jeopardize Citgo, and

they do not rule out that Maduro might pay the April 27 coupon (US$71mn). Investors

pressed them on whether regime change would actually happen and the prospects of

Maduro’s survival, while pointing out that the transition team has been signaling mixed

messages, taking a harsher tone toward the market in some recent statements.

9. Paradigm shifts are underway with key policy risks facing a redefinition away

from the traditional macro cyclical forces to include populism, climate change and

cybersecurity risks. “Paradigm shift” was a constant buzzword raised by speakers at

the conference with multiple paradigm shifts are underway, making it difficult to use

past cycles as a guide. The rise in populist sentiment across DM and EM countries was

highlighted by many speakers, with one speaker estimating that approximately one-third

of the world’s population or 2.4 billion people now live under a populist regime. The

majority of investors (69%) expect Trump to win a second term in 2020, while 59%

expect newly-elected Democratic members to push for more left-leaning policies that

polarizes the party. US congressional speakers made the point that the environment is

not conducive for passing economic initiatives. However, the Democratic leadership is

clearly sensitive to the emerging perception about hostility to capitalism, which could

motivate them to work with POTUS on issues such as infrastructure. The themes raised

by policymakers are similar to those that we discuss in our recent report on paradigm

shifts that will define the global economy and market dynamics for years to come: 1) the

decline in market liquidity; 2) the Fed pivot; 3) the emergence of a “great power”

competition between the US and China; and 4) de-globalization and the rise in

populism. See Paradigm Shifts: What Lies Ahead? Joyce Chang and Jan Loeys et al.,

Apr. 5, 2019.

10. Among the frontier markets, Ecuador was seen as making the most progress

compared to a year ago, while concerns are increasing about the outlook for sub-

Saharan Africa, particularly given the strong YTD performance. Ecuadorian

authorities gave a very clear and solid presentation describing the commitments and

execution strategy under the newly unveiled IMF program. Sub-Saharan Africa has

outperformed, delivering 12% returns (versus 7% returns for EMBIGD). Risks around

record issuance and debt rollover are attracting more attention in the medium term. One

presentation highlighted concerns around declining liquidity and the rising role of

benchmark-driven investment decisions. Less liquid assets are more susceptible to

outflows, evidenced by large leverage loan outflows during the December 2018 sell-off.

Dealer balance sheets have stagnated since the financial crisis and dealers’ market

making capacity has stalled.

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