没有合适的资源?快使用搜索试试~ 我知道了~
首页电子商务驱动:中国快递业巨头崛起
电子商务驱动:中国快递业巨头崛起
需积分: 0 0 下载量 148 浏览量
更新于2024-06-22
收藏 4.18MB PDF 举报
“汇丰银行发布的一份研究报告,涵盖了对中国快递物流行业的深度分析,特别是电子商务对行业巨头崛起的影响。报告指出,中国快递业在过去的十年间实现了显著增长,业务量增长了32倍,收入增长了13倍。预计未来三年,全球最大的快递市场——中国市场将以年复合增长率24%的速度持续扩张。” 这篇报告详细阐述了中国快递行业的繁荣景象,其增长动力主要来源于电子商务的蓬勃发展以及“新零售”市场的兴起。随着电商平台的普及和消费者购买习惯的改变,快递需求急剧增加,推动了行业规模的快速扩大。预计这个万亿人民币级别的市场将孕育出多家市值超过1000亿人民币的行业巨头。 报告对顺丰控股、申通快递、圆通速递和韵达控股四家主要的快递公司进行了覆盖分析,并给出了投资评级。其中,顺丰控股、申通快递和圆通速递被给予“买入”评级,而韵达控股则被评定为“持有”评级。报告特别提到了申通快递和圆通速递作为优选的投资对象,可能因其在行业整合、成本控制和运营效率提升方面的优势。 此外,报告还讨论了市场集中度提高、成本下降和效率提升如何促进行业巨头的形成。随着市场竞争加剧,规模效应变得至关重要,大型快递企业能够通过规模经济实现更低的成本和更高的服务效率,从而巩固市场地位。报告中的分析师David Wu对此进行了深入研究,他指出这些趋势对于投资者理解和把握中国快递物流行业的发展方向具有重要意义。 这份报告为投资者提供了深入了解中国快递物流行业的窗口,揭示了电子商务对其深远影响,以及如何塑造行业的未来格局。同时,通过对行业内重点企业的评级,为投资者提供了投资决策的参考依据。随着行业的持续增长,相关公司的市场表现值得密切关注。
资源详情
资源推荐
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88100049/bgf.jpg)
EQUITIES
● TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS
12 February 2019
14
Over the past decade, package volumes in the US and Japan have grown by between -2% and
10%, while that in China, it has marked up a CAGR of 42%. While this very high level of growth
should decelerate, we still expect it to record a CAGR of 20-25% over the next three to five years.
Exhibit 14. Package volume in China has grown much faster than that in the US and Japan
Source: UPS, Fedex, USPS, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, State Post Bureau, HSBC Qianhai Securities
By weight and size, packages delivered in China tend to be smaller and lighter. The average
weight (mainly e-commerce packages) delivered by Tongda companies, which have a market
share totaling more than 70%, is 1-1.5kg, which means only the base rate is charged for most
packages. By comparison, the average weight of packages delivered by Deppon and UCE
Express is around 8.5kg. The two companies, together with JD.com, make up less than 15% of
market share. Thus, we think the average weight of packages delivered in China is about 2.3kg,
which is lighter than the more than 3kg in the US. In China, package volume and market
penetration are rising as prices fall. We expect light packages of less than 1kg and heavier ones
ranging from 3 to 60kg to grow faster than the industry average.
Exhibit 15. Average weight of packages in
the US is higher than that in China (kg)
Exhibit 16. Average weight of air packages
in the US and China in 2017 (kg)
Source: UPS, Fedex, USPS, State Post Bureau, HSBC Qianhai Securities
Source: Fedex, Company data, HSBC Qianhai Securities
Increasing categories and geographical coverage drive growth of GDP package rate and
total package volume
We believe the metric known as the GDP package rate (package volume per USD10,000 of
GDP adjusted by purchasing power parity) is better than the other main metric, per capita
package volume, for making comparisons. This is because the express delivery markets in the
US and Japan are mainly driven by business demand.
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Japan China USA
1.3
8.5
2.3
3.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Tongda Deppon China Average USA Average
1.5
0.7
4.8
SF YUNDA Fedex
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88100049/bg10.jpg)
15
EQUITIES
● TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS
12 February 2019
Exhibit 17. GDP package rate and online
shopping penetration
Exhibit 18. Per capita package volume
(2017)
Source: State Post Bureau, World Bank, Euromonitor, HSBC Qianhai Securities
Source: State Post Bureau, World Bank, HSBC Qianhai Securities
As Exhibit 14 shows, China has a much higher GDP package rate than the US and Japan. This
is because China’s express delivery market is driven by e-commerce packages: a 1 ppt rise in
online retail penetration implies a 1-1.5ppt increase in the GDP package rate. Currently, online
retail penetration in China is about 20%.
We believe business volume in China’s express delivery market will grow at 27%/23%/21% y-o-y in
2018e/19e/20e, respectively, driven by:
More shippable products: Since there is still huge room for growth in sectors such as food,
fresh produce and domestic furniture and that penetration in the online retail sector is likely to
climb.
Geographical coverage: The per capita package volume in central and western China is only
1/8 to 1/5 that of eastern China, implying great upside potential. Penetration of online retail in
the lower-tier cities is increasing rapidly and is likely to drive growth.
Exhibit 19. Great potential for express
delivery penetration in central and western
China
Exhibit 20. Enormous potential for express
delivery penetration in certain categories
of e-commerce business
Source: State Post Bureau, HSBC Qianhai Securities
Source: chyxx.com, HSBC Qianhai Securities
Economies of scale and the trend towards small packages have lowered overall unit
prices, which in turn drive growth in demand
The overall unit price in China’s express delivery industry fell 56% in the past 10 years to
RMB11.9 in 2018. There are mainly three reasons for this:
Economies of scale help lower unit transport and delivery cost every year, leading to a
decline in ASP. Cross-city packages have the largest scale, and revenue per ticket for cross-
city delivery has dropped by more than 60% over the past decade.
Packages are increasingly lighter in weight and smaller in size, and ASP (measured by
weight) is also falling.
19
8
8
19%
8%
12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
5
10
15
20
China Japan USA
Num. of Packages per 10 thouand GDP (Left Axis)
Online Sales Penetrance(Right Axis)
43
32
29
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
USA Japan China
56.7
10.7
7.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
East Central West
No. of packages per capita in China(2017)
38%
31%
21%
8%
4%
2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
3C Clothes Personal care Family care Package food Fresh food
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88100049/bg11.jpg)
EQUITIES
● TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS
12 February 2019
16
E-commerce package delivery services available on the market are very similar, leading to
intense price competition for market share.
Exhibit 21. ASP of express delivery has
been falling (RMB)
Exhibit 22. Decline in ASP of express
delivery has been narrowing down
Source: State Post Bureau, HSBC Qianhai Securities
Source: State Post Bureau, HSBC Qianhai Securities
The price for express delivery service has been dropping and the service itself has been
improving, making online shopping more cost-effective. This also boosts e-commerce
penetration, allowing the e-commerce and express delivery industry to contribute to each
other’s success.
China: business packages to grow by 15% in the medium term, led
by two key players
Business packages dominate the US express delivery market; growth is in line with GDP
We categorise time-sensitive air freight packages and packages delivered to business address
by ground transportation within three days as business packages. The express delivery industry
in the US started out with B2B business packages market. In 2017, business packages in the
US totalled 5.9bn, accounting for 42% of all packages delivered. Half of the packages UPS
delivers are business packages, while we estimate around 70% of the revenue of Fedex, the
leader in air freight, comes from business packages.
Exhibit 23. Breakdown of business packages (million pieces) in the US
Source: UPS, Fedex, USPS, HSBC Qianhai Securities
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total
intra-city
cross-city
-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total ASP Y-O-Y
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
4%
5%
5%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
USPS Fedex UPS Others Business express Y-O-Y(right axis)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88100049/bg12.jpg)
17
EQUITIES
● TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS
12 February 2019
Since the financial crisis in 2008, the volume of business packages in the US has been growing
by 2-4% a year, and the coefficient of elasticity to GDP is around 1.6x. The business package
market in the US is already quite mature.
Exhibit 24. Business packages account for
42% of total packages delivered in the US
Exhibit 25. Business packages account for
c70% of Fedex’s total revenue
Source: UPS, Fedex, USPS, HSBC Qianhai Securities
Source: Fedex, HSBC Qianhai Securities
In China, the volume of business packages is low but we expect it to grow 15% a year
over the long term
S.F. Holding’s on-time express delivery service (including next-day, next-morning and same-day
delivery) and EMS’s Speed Post are the two major products in the business package market in
China. We estimate that there were 3.24bn business packages delivered in 2017, bringing in
revenue of RMB83.3bn. The volume is only half of the number in the US. In addition, revenue
from business packages only accounted for 22% of the total revenue. This shows that the
business is still at the expansion stage and there is great potential ahead.
Exhibit 26. Business package volume in
China is half of that in the US
Exhibit 27. Low revenue contribution by
business package delivery in China
Source: State Post Bureau, UPS, Fedex, USPS, HSBC Qianhai Securities estimates
Source: State Post Bureau, HSBC Qianhai Securities estimates
The GDP package rate in China for business package is well below that in the US. However, it
is growing 8-9% y-o-y along with 6-7% GDP growth. We expect both volume of and revenue
generated by business packages to grow by a CAGR of about 15% in the next 5-10 years. We
believe the total volume and GDP package rate of business packages will more than double in
the long run.
48%
48%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
56%
58%
52%
52%
50%
49%
48%
47%
46%
44%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
E-commerce and economic express Business express
E-
commer
ce and
economi
c express
34%
Domestic Exp.
32%
Domestic
Ground
19%
International
Priority
15%
Business
express
66%
2.0
2.3
2.4
2.8
3.2
64
66
75
83
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Volume(bn pieces) Revenue(right axis,RMBbn)
62%
71%
76%
78%
38%
29%
24%
22%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017
Business express
E-commerce and economic express
Revenue Y-O-Y(right axis)
剩余87页未读,继续阅读
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/download_wenku/file_type_ask_c1.png)
![](https://profile-avatar.csdnimg.cn/default.jpg!1)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/wenkucmsfe/public/img/user-vip.1c89f3c5.png)
qq_41146932
- 粉丝: 10
- 资源: 6307
上传资源 快速赚钱
我的内容管理 收起
我的资源 快来上传第一个资源
我的收益
登录查看自己的收益我的积分 登录查看自己的积分
我的C币 登录后查看C币余额
我的收藏
我的下载
下载帮助
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/wenkucmsfe/public/img/voice.245cc511.png)
会员权益专享
最新资源
- 电力电子与电力传动专业《电子技术基础》期末考试试题
- 电力电子技术期末考试题:电力客户与服务管理专业
- 电力系统自动化《电力电子技术》期末考卷习题精选
- 电力系统自动化专业《电力电子技术》期末考试试题
- 电子信息专业《电子技术》期末考试试题解析
- 电子与信息技术专业《电子技术》期末考试试题概览
- 电子信息工程《电子技术》期末考卷习题集
- 电子信息工程专业《电子技术》期末考试试题解析
- 电子信息工程《电工与电子技术》期末考试试题解析
- 电子信息工程专业《电子技术基础》期末考试计算题解析
- 电子技术期末考试题试卷(试卷B)——电子技术应用专业
- 电子科技专业《电力电子技术》期末考试填空题精选
- 2020-21秋《电力电子技术》电机电器智能化期末试题解析
- 电气工程及其自动化专业《电子技术》期末考试题(卷六)
- 电气工程专业《电子技术基础》期末考试试题解析
- 电气自动化专业《电子技术》期末考试试题解析
资源上传下载、课程学习等过程中有任何疑问或建议,欢迎提出宝贵意见哦~我们会及时处理!
点击此处反馈
![](https://img-home.csdnimg.cn/images/20220527035711.png)
![](https://img-home.csdnimg.cn/images/20220527035711.png)
![](https://img-home.csdnimg.cn/images/20220527035111.png)
安全验证
文档复制为VIP权益,开通VIP直接复制
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/wenkucmsfe/public/img/green-success.6a4acb44.png)