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Anupam Rama
(1-212) 622-0900
anupam.rama@jpmorgan.com
Dova (DOVA, Underweight)
We are establishing a December 2020 price target of $15 for DOVA shares and
maintaining our Underweight rating. Following the label expansion of Doptelet to
include chronic immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), we are updating our model to
reflect the approval and other broad model adjustments including Doptelet pricing.
Along these lines, as announced on the ITP approval conference call, newly
announced pricing adjustment for Doptelet will take effect, which will now have a
WAC price closer to other agents in ITP. Moving forward, the Dova story has now
shifted from the CLD indication to ITP, and the launch in the ITP indication will be
closely monitored (expected mid July). In our view, Doptelet indeed is differentiated
from the currently used TPO agents, including Promacta (a blackbox warning for
hepatotoxicity and must be taken on an empty stomach) and Nplate (subcutaneous
dosing; can be burdensome to patients versus oral option for Doptelet). That said, we
maintain our view that it will take strong metrics in ITP in the early innings to gain
confidence, given the entrenchment of the existing TPO agents and the
disappointment of the CLD launch for the past 6-12 months. Of note, we do believe
that it will take time to educate physicians on key differentiation points for Doptelet,
and as a result, tangible meaningful sales pull-through near term is potentially
unlikely, in our view. Hence, we maintain our relative Underweight rating as we
await clear signals indicating a Doptelet ITP sales inflection.
Reiterating Underweight rating. Establishing December 2020 price target of
$15 (replacing our former December 2019 price target of $13) on broad model
adjustments including POS increase in ITP and market penetration in the
indication (as well as pricing adjustments in both CLD and ITP).