非法音乐服务推动的长尾效应：经济洞察

长尾理论

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"长尾理论在IT领域中的影响力与日俱增，尤其是在音乐行业的数字化转型中发挥着关键作用。最初由《连线》杂志在2004年的一篇文章中提出，长尾理论揭示了在非法下载服务如Napster、Grokster和 Kazaa盛行的时代，消费者对于音乐的选择远超合法数字音乐服务如iTunes和Music所能提供的。这些非法平台为用户提供了一个丰富的音乐目录，甚至在法律允许之前就满足了大众对多样化选择的需求。在长尾理论中，核心概念是市场中非主流产品或内容（即“长尾”）的总和可以与主流产品（通常占据"头"部，如热门歌曲和知名艺术家）的销售量相匹敌，或者在某些情况下，甚至超越它们。随着互联网的发展和P2P技术的普及，这种现象变得更为明显，因为用户可以轻松访问到数量庞大的非主流内容，包括独立艺术家、稀有曲目和小众文化作品。尽管法律数字音乐服务在起初面临追赶非法平台的巨大挑战，但随着时间的推移，如PRS for Music这样的组织开始认识到长尾理论的价值，致力于推动合法的音乐分发和版权管理。这不仅包括支持艺术家的创作和分发，也包括通过创新的商业模式，如音乐订阅服务和个性化推荐，来吸引那些寻求独特音乐体验的消费者。在经济洞察方面，长尾理论鼓励内容提供商和平台优化搜索算法，使用户能够更容易地发现和获取他们想要的非主流内容。同时，它强调了个性化和定制化服务的重要性，以及在数字经济时代如何通过满足多样化需求来实现商业成功。然而，这个理论也带来了一些问题，比如版权管理和公平收入分配。随着长尾内容的增加，确保创作者能从他们的作品中获得适当报酬变得更具挑战性。因此，平衡创新、用户需求和版权保护成为了一项复杂的工作。总结来说，长尾理论在IT领域中是一个重要的概念，它改变了我们理解消费者行为、内容分发和市场动态的方式。无论是音乐行业还是其他创意产业，都需要理解和适应这一理论，以便在这个日益数字化的世界中找到可持续的商业策略。"

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The long tail of P2P

Economic Insight

Prepared by Will Page,

Chief Economist PRS for Music

and Eric Garland, CEO BigChampagne

Disclaimer:

This material has been prepared by Will Page at PRS for Music

for information purposes only and should not be relied on for

any other purpose. It does not constitute the view of the

Management or the Boards of MCPS, PRS or any associated

company. It is provided for the information of the intended

recipient only and should not be reproduced or disclosed to any

other person without the consent of the PRS for Music PR

department. For further enquiries, information, and to request

permissions, please contact:

press@prsformusic.com

Issue 14

14.05.09

The theory of the Long Tail first came to light in

Wired Magazine in October 2004, as legal digital

music services like iTunes and eMusic were

taking off. However, illegal music services like

Napster, Grokster or Kazaa had been around,

providing digital music fans with a massive

choice of music catalogue long before such

choice was legally provided. As a result, the

well-known anomaly of the digital music world

was reinforced - legal services constantly play

catch-up with illegal services, and the

enforcement of copyright persistently lags

advances in technology. With these issues in

mind, and the infamous Pirate Bay still very

much in the news (and still on folks’ desktops),

what does the Long Tail distribution profile of

hits and niches look like in the world of massive

choice that is P2P? Will Page teamed up with

BigChampagne's Eric Garland to figure it all out.

The following Insight paper is a bit longer than

those previously released by PRS for Music.

As such, we thought it best to give the reader,

upfront, a sense of where we are headed. In the

first section of this Insight paper, we will be

releasing the results of a critical inquiry into the

music usage patterns within file-sharing

networks. Particularly, would a so-called long

tail or a pinhead pattern describe the relative

popularity of music files within these networks?

In the second section of this paper, we will dig

into the 'Wherefores' - particularly issues of

supply and demand - underlying the usage

pattern we found. In the final section, we will

consider long-term trends in P2P activity

alongside some new behaviours that seem to

be emerging. We will then wrap this discussion

up with a few final thoughts on the 'paradox of

choice'.

The Long Tail, a brief introduction

The original Long Tail concept, as laid out by Chris

Anderson in a famous Wired Magazine article in

October 2004, goes like this: if you offer people more

choice, and help them make that choice, they will take

that choice. It proposed that in a world of widespread

Internet access, it no longer makes sense to cater to

the public appetite for the most popular CDs, DVDs

and books. Instead, even the interests of the smallest

niche might now be served. The lower cost of reaching

customers online enables thousands of otherwise

unprofitable niches to be profitable. From an economic

perspective, this shift in costs would change the

'distribution profile' of transactions in any market to

that of "selling less of more." The tail of available niche

products would lengthen (supply-side effect) and then

fatten with sales (demand-side effect). And so the

"Long Tail" emerged.

Physical store

inventory of

52,000 tracks,

or 4,000 albums

Extra 1.5m items

in digital sales

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Joe Fleischer

and Adam Toll at BigChampagne and Gary

Eggleton, Chris Carey and Eric MacKay at

PRS for Music, all of whom made invaluable

contribution to this work. David Touve was

especially helpful in providing insights,

suggestions and editorial revisions to the

work, and for helping bring it towards a

conclusion. Finally, a special note of thanks

is due to Andrew Bud, Executive Chairman

of mBlox, who inspired much of Will's

earlier work on the log normal distribution

and continues to help the PRS for Music

make sense of the unrivalled data sets it

has access to.

About Eric Garland

Eric Garland is co-founder and Chief

Executive Officer of BigChampagne Media

Measurement, a privately-held technology

and metrics company specialising in online

media. At present, BigChampagne's available

metrics include online retailers (iTunes),

social networks (MySpace, YouTube), portals

Yahoo and AOL, Clear Channel, MTV and

through strategic partner Mediabase,

traditional broadcast. Garland is recognised

as one of the industry's leading authorities

on the intersection of popular entertainment

and technology.

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非法音乐服务推动的长尾效应：经济洞察

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