"巴黎银行深度研究：全球贸易纠纷带来的挑战与展望"

The latest research report from Paris Bank on the global macro strategy regarding trade disputes delves deep into the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China. The report, dated May 14, 2019, suggests that the possibility of a trade deal between the two economic giants has significantly diminished. The base case scenario, with a 50% probability, predicts that negotiations will continue but the current stalemate will persist until the end of the year. The report highlights that the escalation of tariffs and the accompanying uncertainty are expected to have far-reaching consequences. China's economy is likely to suffer further, while the United States may see a rise in inflation. The impact of these trade tensions is not limited to the two countries involved but will have repercussions on global trade and manufacturing. Against this backdrop, Japan is also mentioned in the report as a country that could be affected by the trade disputes. The deepening of the US-China trade conflict is expected to have ripple effects on other economies, with Japan being one of them. Overall, the report paints a bleak picture of the current trade landscape, with no immediate resolution in sight. The repercussions of the ongoing dispute are expected to be felt across different sectors and regions, underscoring the interconnectedness of the global economy. As businesses and policymakers brace themselves for the long haul, the report serves as a timely reminder of the challenges posed by trade tensions in today's interconnected world.