"全球食品业：我不敢相信这不是肉-巴克莱研究报告"

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Barclays Capital Inc. and its affiliates have published a report on the global food industry titled "Global Food Industry: I Can't Believe It's Not Meat". The report, spanning 92 pages, provides an in-depth analysis of the food industry, with a particular focus on alternative meat products. The report highlights the growing trend towards plant-based and lab-grown meat alternatives, showcasing their increasing popularity and market potential. It discusses the challenges and opportunities facing traditional meat producers, as well as the environmental and health benefits of shifting towards alternative protein sources. It is important to note that Barclays Capital Inc. and its affiliates may have conflicts of interest when conducting research on companies within the food industry. As such, investors are advised to consider this report as just one factor in their investment decision-making process. Overall, the report paints a comprehensive picture of the global food industry landscape, emphasizing the rise of alternative protein sources and the potential impact on traditional meat producers. Investors and industry stakeholders can use this report as a valuable resource in understanding the evolving dynamics of the global food market.

Barclays | Global Food

22 May 2019 15

meat) so as not to dissuade mainstream consumers. Importantly, as companies attempt to

move away from the association with vegetarianism, we have seen products placed in the

aisle alongside meat-based alternatives, rather than in a separate section of the store,

similar to the dynamic seen in plant based milk alternatives, which provides much greater

visibility to the mainstream consumer.

While food options have long existed to address this plant-based consumer need (in the

form of meat alternatives like the veggie burger), we have seen an increased and

accelerated effort by packaged food manufacturers to take advantage of this quickly

evolving trend. In the past, we have seen large packaged food (and Consumer Staples)

players put out subpar products in order to chase emerging trends, such as the veggie

burger, in order to “check the box,” so to speak, without any real effort or authenticity.

More recently, we have seen a much more concerted effort to provide high quality

products that are developed with a consumer focused mindset. To us, this has played a

critical part in the rise of the popularity of refrigerated/frozen meat alternative products,

and has led to more plant-based items that are increasingly similar to their meat-based

counterparts in all aspects (i.e., taste and feel) except the ingredients.

The Good Food Conference back in September hosted Dr. Nigel Hughes, Kellogg’s SVP

Global R&D, and Sergio Eleuerio, General Manager of Kraft Heinz’s (KHC, EW) Springboard

on a panel titled “How Food Companies Are Rethinking Meat for the Flexitarian Consumer”.

Most interesting to us was Nigel’s pointed comment around the shift toward plant-based

and clean protein: “This is a paradigm shift…Plant-based protein will play a much, much

larger role than it plays today”. So too would we note that Kellogg’s Principal Product

Development Scientist on their Global Innovation and Nutrition Team participated in the

conference in relation to plant-based meat. This makes it clear that packaged food

manufacturers see this as a significant emerging trend in the industry rather than a short-

lived fad and that the large, and packaged food companies that we follow are committed to

putting resources behind it. In our view, given the mainstream recognition of the larger

brands these companies own, this endorsement could prove instrumental to the future

growth and popularity of the movement.

As CAG highlighted at its Investor Day, per IRI, in the roughly $57bn U.S. frozen food

category, meat (which includes meat alternatives) represents 26% of category sales,

producing almost $15bn in annual retail sales. More specifically, frozen/refrigerated meat

alternatives, at $700mm or so in sales, represent only ~5% of meat subcategory sales. That

said, meat alternatives are growing at a significantly faster pace than the larger meat

subcategory and the overall frozen category (~+12% YoY vs. ~+1% YoY and ~+2% YoY

respectively for the 52 weeks ending 02/24/19 per IRI). In terms of market share,

MorningStar Farms (owned by Kellogg) is the largest player in the space and accounts

for more than 40% of frozen/refrigerated meat alternative sales, followed by Gardein

(owned by CAG – about 15% of category sales), with Lightlife (owned by Maple Foods),

Beyond Meat, and Boca Foods (owned by Kraft Heinz) rounding out the top five and each

representing about a little more than 5% of category sales.

Barclays | Global Food

22 May 2019 16

FIGURE 7

Frozen/Refrigerated Meat Alternatives (Dollar Sales, % Chg vs YA)

Source: Barclays Research, Company Reports, IRI POS MULO+C L52W ending 02/24/19, IRI Growth Consulting

Analysis 2018

Not surprisingly, given the brand was an original pioneer in the space having launched in

the 1970s, Kellogg’s MorningStar Farms is currently the market share leader in the meat

alternatives category. In concert with the revitalization of the overall frozen category, the

brand started to show meaningful growth beginning in 2017 and consumption only

accelerated in 2018 following a brand overhaul by K that refocused its core offerings,

renovated its food and packaging, and launched new products, in addition to emphasizing

its clean label and plant protein attributes. Over the 52 weeks ending 02/24/19, the brand

has grown sales +6% YoY, per IRI. Interestingly, MorningStar Farms has committed to

converting its entire portfolio to be 100% plant-based (vegan) by 2021, with roughly 50%

of the portfolio having already been transitioned, in an effort to reduce water waste, land

usage, and carbon emissions associated with egg production. As such, the brand recently

launched a vegan cheeseburger alternative to its vegan Meat Lover burger patty. And, on its

most recent conference call earlier this month, K, in our view, was a bit hesitant to discuss

upcoming plans for the business, only saying “For competitive reasons, I wouldn’t get much

into [it]…We’ll continue to innovate and I would just say watch the space”, leading us to

believe that there’s more left in the pipeline. With K being one of the first plant based

nutrition companies, it believes it has the right to not only play, but be a larger force in this

space.

Interestingly, at its Investor Day in early April, in talking about its approach to managing the

portfolio, Conagra mentioned plant-based as a “massive” demand space for the company.

Though this extends beyond meat alternatives, as mentioned earlier, CAG laid out the case

for the increasing importance of the meat alternative subsegment of the frozen/refrigerated

packaged food category. Importantly, CAG’s recent acquisition of Pinnacle Foods has given

it a solid foothold in the space, as the Gardein brand that was previously owned by PF is

currently the second largest player in the space and is growing +14% YoY in the 52 weeks

ending 02/24/19 per IRI, faster than the overall frozen/refrigerated meat alternative

category. As such, CAG is determined to leverage this advantage and is rolling out a pretty

substantial slate of innovation through the Gardein brand. In particular, CAG plans to

introduce meat replacement breakfast bowls, burgers, wings, dinner sausages, breakfast

sausage patties, and bacon strips. So too does the company believe that it can help provide

solutions for flexitarians with its Healthy Choice brand, most notably through its Power

Bowls. Though this sentiment was not expressed explicitly, we would not be surprised if at

some point we see a meat replacement version of Power Bowls, similar to the meat

replacement breakfast bowls that are set to be launched under the Gardein brand.

MorningStar

Farms

$292 mn

+6% YoY

Gardein

$107 mn

+14% YoY

Lightlife

$50 mn

+7% YoY

Beyond Meat

$38 mn

+101% YoY

Boca

$38 mn

-9% YoY

Quorn

$31 mn

+19% YoY

All Other

$124 mn

+18% YoY

Barclays | Global Food

22 May 2019 17

Similar to Kellogg with MorningStar Farms, Kraft Heinz (KHC, EW) owns a long standing

brand in the space in Boca that it has recently worked to revitalize. Around this time last

year, KHC launched Springboard, a platform dedicated to nurturing, scaling, and

accelerating growth of disruptive brands, with the Boca brand one of the first projects to be

a part of this new accelerator platform. As such, Boca went from a brand that didn’t have

much attention paid to it before, to now having a dedicated R&D team and investment

behind it. During a presentation at Expo West, Springboard general manager Sergio

Eleuterio noted his belief that the key attributes consumers in the space are looking for are

taste, value (i.e., accessibility, convenience, and costs), and brand value. In this vein, KHC

has worked to reformulate the Boca Burger for improved taste and texture and rebranded

the product with a new packaging design. Additionally, KHC is working to expand the Boca

brand into new product categories in an effort to tap into the growing plant-based foods

movement, including rolling out what we believe at the time was the first ever vegan turkey

burger in 2018, and is also working to move its full offering suite to be increasingly vegan

friendly (with a majority of its products already vegan). That said, these efforts have yet to

show meaningful traction in the market place, with sales for the brand down -HSD to -DD

YoY at the moment. KHC believes that a plant-based movement is happening and will

expand, and it is thus gearing up to be a part of that expansion.

General Mills (GIS, EW), through its venture arm 301 Inc., was a very early investor in

Beyond Meat, but its stake has since been diluted dramatically through succeeding rounds

of financing

Outside of the U.S., both Nomad Foods (NOMD, OW), which recently launched its Birds Eye

Green Cuisine in the UK and Findus Pease in Sweden, and Hain Celestial (HAIN, EW),

through its Linda McCartney and Yves Veggies Cuisine brands, have exposure to the meat

alternatives spaces. In fact, NOMD recently commented that it believes this new category

will grow “big time.”

While these packaged food companies have been working on their alternative meat product

portfolio and have retained the top 3 market share positions in the space, players mainly

focused on alternative meat such as Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods have been able to

outperform in consumer traction, as seen in the following figure, with the exception of

Quorn, which besides having been founded over three decades ago, has relied on an

innovative product pipeline to entice consumers.

FIGURE 8

Quorn outperforms peers in Twitter mentions, followed by Impossible Foods and Beyond

Source: Twitter, Barclays Research. (For further reference see Method: Twitter Sentiment, published March 21, 2019.)

345

1042

1561

4356

8360

11736

85641

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Lightlife BOCA Foods Gardein Morningstar

Farms

Beyond

Foods

Impossible

Foods

Quorn

Tweet Count

Trailing 12 Months

Barclays | Global Food

22 May 2019 18

Interestingly, so far, most of the foray into the meat alternative space by the packaged

food companies under our coverage have been in the frozen part of the store. And while

the frozen segment of the category has seen strong growth, we believe that the chilled

segment has become increasingly popular with the rise of Beyond Meat and Impossible

Foods.

European Packaged Food – Warren Ackerman

The meat substitutes market in Western Europe (WE) is about the same size as that of the

U.S., but at a country level the U.S. is far ahead, i.e., 3x that of the UK (€1.2bn vs. €0.4bn).

This is not surprising given the size of the total meat/seafood market in the U.S., which is

10x larger than the UK.

However, looking at the share of meat substitutes of the total market, it is the other way

around – penetration in the UK at 12% is 3x that in the U.S. (4%). Other major European

markets like Germany and Italy are similar as well, in that the markets are smaller (€150-

200mn) but penetration is higher, i.e., in the 9-12% range, as shown in the figure below

(right axis).

FIGURE 9

The U.S. meat substitute market is far ahead of Europe and is 3x larger than no.2 UK

Source: Barclays Research, Euromonitor

Growth in the WE market has remained stable at around c.10% over the last three years, but

interestingly the share of private label is also on the rise, implying that PL is outperforming

growth in branded meat substitutes. We think this is more prevalent in the UK where Nestle

withdrew its Garden Gourmet line of plant-based products from retailers earlier in April after

an initial trial, which we discuss later in the report.

1,196

396

200

167

126

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2018 Meat Substitute Sales (€m) % share of Total Meat/Seafood (RHS)

Besides the frozen segment,

the chilled segment provides in

our view ample growth

opportunities.

In terms of market penetration,

alternative meat is more

developed in Europe vs. the

U.S.

Barclays | Global Food

22 May 2019 19

FIGURE 10

Meat substitutes are growing c.10% in Western Europe but PL is gaining share

Source: Barclays Research, Euromonitor

However, given that the major European food producers i.e. Nestle, Unilever, etc. are just

starting to invest in the plant-based meat segment, we are positive about growth prospects,

in general, as investment in innovations and expansion of distribution of newly acquired

brands should drive penetration and volume growth in the near term. We discuss these in

more detail below.

Unilever (ULVR.L, UW) – The Vegetarian Butcher

Unilever has had a vegan range of products since 2016 in ice cream, spreads, and others,

but it was only at the end of 2018 that the company entered the plant-based meat category

in a significant way. It acquired The Vegetarian Butcher (TVB), a Dutch company founded in

2007 that makes meat replacement foods (burgers, sausages, etc.), sold in 17 countries

mostly in Western Europe, and across 4,000 outlets.

UNA first started working with the company in 2016, when a range of products were jointly

developed and marketed under the Unox brand. As with most of UNA’s recent small scale

acquisitions, the revenue upside for UNA is in leveraging wider international distribution

network which spans 190 countries to launch the brand in geographical whitespaces.

Equally, it is also quite likely that UNA develops new plant-based product ranges in ready

meals. What is important to note is that TVB has more than 10 years of history in

developing vegan meat alternatives, which should allow UNA to more aggressively push

into the category without having to experiment with too many internal projects that would

involve significant R&D and marketing investment.

The acquisition also gives Unilever an edge in the foodservice channel where it operates via

Unilever Food Solutions (UFS). The company says that classically trained chefs continue to

focus on meat preparation despite increasing demand for plant-based options, which is an

opportunity for the company to help develop plant-based options in their menus.

Nestle (NESN.S, OW) – Garden Gourmet

Nestlé’s plant-based revenues currently stand at a “few hundred million” CHF, and Laurent

Freixe, CEO of Zone Americas, expects group plant-based revenues to reach more than

CHF1bn within a decade

. While Nestle already has plant-based offerings in ready meals,

Corinne Gretler, Bloomberg (December 27, 2018) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-28/nestle-

plans-vegan-push-with-no-meat-burger-purple-walnut-milk

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

14.0%

15.0%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Western Europe (€1.2bn in 2018) Private label Share (RHS)

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