2023全球经济展望：低增长趋势下的挑战与应对

In 2023, the global economy faced numerous challenges that led to a slowdown in growth. These challenges included a diminishing reopening boost, fiscal and monetary tightening, China's Covid restrictions and property slump, as well as the Russia-Ukraine war. As a result, global growth is expected to be just 1.8% in 2023. The United States showed resilience in the face of these challenges, narrowly avoiding recession. This was partly due to core PCE inflation slowing from 5% to 3% by late 2023, and a slight increase in the unemployment rate. However, Europe faced the possibility of a recession, while China experienced a bumpy reopening. In order to keep growth below potential amidst stronger real income, it is important for policymakers to remain vigilant and proactive. This may involve implementing measures to support economic recovery, such as targeted fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy. Additionally, governments may need to address structural issues in their economies to ensure long-term growth sustainability. Looking ahead, it will be crucial for countries to work together to address global challenges and promote sustainable economic growth. Collaboration on issues such as trade, climate change, and technological innovation will be key to fostering a more stable and prosperous global economy in the years to come. By taking coordinated and proactive action, policymakers can help mitigate the impact of current challenges and pave the way for a more resilient and inclusive global economy in the future.