Using artificial neural network models in stock market index prediction
Erkam Guresen
a
, Gulgun Kayakutlu
a,
⇑
, Tugrul U. Daim
b
a
Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey
b
Portland State University, Portland OR, USA
article info
Keywords:
Financial time series (FTS) prediction
Recurrent neural networks (RNN)
Dynamic artificial neural networks (DAN2)
Hybrid forecasting models
abstract
Forecasting stock exchange rates is an important financial problem that is receiving increasing attention.
During the last few years, a number of neural network models and hybrid models have been proposed for
obtaining accurate prediction results, in an attempt to outperform the traditional linear and nonlinear
approaches. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of neural network models which are known to be
dynamic and effective in stock-market predictions. The models analysed are multi-layer perceptron
(MLP), dynamic artificial neural network (DAN2) and the hybrid neural networks which use generalized
autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) to extract new input variables. The comparison
for each model is done in two view points: Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Deviate
(MAD) using real exchange daily rate values of NASDAQ Stock Exchange index.
Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Forecasting simply means understanding which variables lead
to predict other variables (Mcnelis, 2005). This means a clear
understanding of the timing of lead-lag relations among many
variables, understanding the statistical significance of these lead-
lag relations and learning which variables are the more important
ones to watch as signals for predicting the market moves. Better
forecasting is the key element for better financial decision making,
in the increasing financial market volatility and internationalized
capital flows.
Accurate forecasting methods are crucial for portfolio manage-
ment by commercial and investment banks. Assessing expected re-
turns relative to risk presumes that portfolio strategists
understand the distribution of returns. Financial expert can easily
model the influence of tangible assets to the market value, but
not intangible asset like know-how and trademark. The financial
time series models expressed by financial theories have been the
basis for forecasting a series of data in the twentieth century.
Studies focusing on forecasting the stock markets have been
mostly preoccupied with forecasting volatilites. There has been
few studies bringing models from other forecasting areas such as
technology forecasting.
To model the market value, one of the best ways is the use of
expert systems with artificial neural networks (ANN), which do
not contain standard formulas and can easily adapt the changes
of the market. In literature many artificial neural network models
are evaluated against statistical models for forecasting the market
value. It is observed that in most of the cases ANN models give bet-
ter result than other methods. However, there are very few studies
comparing the ANN models do among themselves, where this
study is filling a gap.
Objective of this study is to compare performance of most re-
cent ANN models in forecasting time series used in market values.
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model
(Engle, 1982), generalized version of ARCH model Generalized
ARCH (GARCH) model (Bollerslev, 1986), Exponential GARCH
(EGARCH) model (Nelson, 1991) and Dynamic Architecture for
Artificial Neural Networks (DAN2).
Ghiassi and Saidane (2005) will be analyzed in comparison to
classical Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model. Despite the popular-
ity and implementation of the ANN models in many complex
financial markets directly, shortcomings are observed. The noise
that caused by changes in market conditions, it is hard to reflect
the market variables directly into the models without any assump-
tions (Roh, 2007). That is why the new models will also be exe-
cuted in hybrid combination with MLP. The analysed models will
be tested on NASDAQ index data for nine months and the methods
will be compared by using Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean
Absolute Deviation (MAD).
The remaining sections of this paper are organized as follows:
Section 2 gives the background of the related studies; Section 3
introduces the models used in this study and Section 4 provides re-
sults of each model using daily exchange rates of NASDAQ index.
Final section gives the conclusion and recommendations for future
researches.
This study will not only make contribution to the ANN research
but also to the business implementations of market value
calculation.
0957-4174/$ - see front matter Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2011.02.068
⇑
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: gkayakutlu@gmail.com (G. Kayakutlu).
Expert Systems with Applications 38 (2011) 10389–10397
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Expert Systems with Applications
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/eswa