美股汽车行业：10年来美国汽车经销商估值低折扣高

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根据JP 摩根在2019年2月发布的《美股汽车行业报告》显示，美国汽车经销商行业存在着长达10年的低估值和过高折扣的问题。报告指出，该行业中Lithia Motors、Group 1 Automotive、Asbury Automotive、Penske Automotive、AutoNation和Sonic Automotive等公司在市值、股价和评级方面都存在一定的差异。在市值方面，Lithia Motors占据了较大的市值，达到了2,213.15亿美元，而Sonic Automotive的市值则相对较低，只有679.06亿美元。在股价方面，Lithia Motors的股价为87.97美元，而Sonic Automotive的股价仅为15.87美元。同时，报告还对各公司的评级和价格目标进行了分析。根据报告显示，Lithia Motors、Group 1 Automotive和Asbury Automotive被评为OW（跑赢市场），分别设定了112.00美元、77.00美元和82.00美元的股价目标。而Penske Automotive、AutoNation和Sonic Automotive则分别被评为N（持有）和UW（低于市场表现），其股价目标分别为51.00美元、40.00美元和14.00美元。该报告的出台引起了市场的广泛关注和讨论。美国汽车经销商行业长期以来表现出低估值和过高折扣的特点，这一现象在报告中得到了充分的验证。为了解决这一问题，汽车经销商需要采取一系列的措施来提高市值和股价。首先，汽车经销商需要加强品牌建设和产品创新，提高产品附加值，从而增加消费者对其产品的认可度和购买欲望。其次，汽车经销商需要积极开展市场营销活动，拓展销售渠道，提高产品销售量，增加市场份额。此外，汽车经销商还需要优化企业管理，降低成本，提高效率，增强盈利能力。最后，汽车经销商需要不断加强与供应商的合作，争取更多的优惠条件和资源支持，进一步提高企业的竞争实力。总的来说，美国汽车经销商行业中存在着长期低估值和过高折扣的问题，这一问题需要汽车经销商本身和相关利益相关方的共同努力来解决。希望在未来的发展中，汽车经销商们能够通过持续不断的努力和改革，实现行业的良性发展，为广大消费者提供更加优质的产品和服务。

North America

Equity Research

19 February 2019

Rajat Gupta

(1-212) 622-6382

rajat.gupta@jpmorgan.com

Automotive Industry-Specific Factors Impacting US Light Vehicle Demand

Figure

: US Auto Loan Rate vs. US LV SAAR

Average Loan Rate on 48-month Auto Loan (L-Axis); US Light Vehicle SAAR in millions (R-Axis)

Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Ward’s Automotive.

Figure

: US Auto Loan Duration vs. US LV SAAR

Average Loan Term in months (L-Axis); US Light Vehicle SAAR in millions (R-Axis)

Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Ward’s Automotive.

Figure 6: US Auto Inventories Days on Hand vs. US LV SAAR

Inventory Days on Hand at Dealers (L-Axis); US Light Vehicle SAAR in millions (R-Axis)

Source: Autodata; Ward’s Automotive.

Figure 7: US Used Vehicle Prices

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (L-Axis); US Light Vehicle SAAR in millions (R-Axis)

Source: Manheim Consulting; Ward’s Automotive.

220%

10%

12%

Auto Loan Rate (L-Axis) SAAR (R-Axis, inverted)

Auto Loan Duration (L-Axis) SAAR (R-Axis)

100

110

120

Consumer Confidence (L-Axis) SAAR (R-Axis)

100

110

120

130

140

150

Manheim (L-Axis) SAAR (R-Axis)

North America

Equity Research

19 February 2019

Rajat Gupta

(1-212) 622-6382

rajat.gupta@jpmorgan.com

Our company-specific retail new vehicle same-store unit and revenue forecasts

are shown in Table 2 and Table 3, respectively.

 Our retail same-store unit sales growth forecasts are predicated upon: (1) our

aforementioned outlook for US light vehicle SAAR to decline modestly, by -3%

y/y in 2019 and -2% y/y in 2020; and (2) incremental differences in automaker

brand and geographic exposure.

 Our retail same-store revenue growth forecasts are predicated upon: (1) our retail

same-store unit sales growth forecasts; and (2) our outlook for modestly

increasing average transaction prices (ameliorating the impact of our outlook for

a decline in unit sales from a revenue perspective), given the long-persisting trend

toward a greater mix of higher value Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs), Crossover

Utility Vehicles (CUVs), and pickup trucks, and away from lower value

passenger cars. Another factor is the recent decline in industry incentives.

Table 2: Historical & Forecast Same-store New Vehicle Retail Unit Sales Growth by Dealership Group vs. Industry Light Vehicle Sales

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E

ABG 15% 7% 6% 6% -1% -1% 2% -1% -1%

AN 19% 5% 7% 5% -5% -2% -2% -2% -2%

GPI* 17% 4% 4% 4% -7% -2% -4% -2% -2%

LAD 30% 14% 8% 7% 1% 0% -4% -3% -2%

PAG 13% 13% 6% 5% 1% -3% -4% -4% -1%

SAH 10% 2% 0% 3% -2% 0% -4% -1% -2%

Group 17% 8% 5% 5% -2% -1% -3% -2% -1%

SAAR 13% 8% 6% 6% 0% -2% 0% -3% -1%

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates; Company data.

Note: GPI data shown is for the United States only.

Table 3: Historical & Forecast Same-store New Vehicle Revenue Growth by Dealership Group

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E

ABG 16% 11% 7% 8% 1% 0% 3% 1% 0%

AN 18% 7% 8% 6% -3% -1% 0% 0% -1%

GPI* 17% 6% 6% 5% -4% 0% -3% -1% -1%

LAD 30% 16% 11% 9% 3% 1% -2% -1% -1%

PAG 13% 13% 11% 4% -1% -3% 0% -3% -1%

SAH 11% 5% 3% 5% 0% 1% -1% 1% -1%

Group 17% 10% 8% 6% -1% 0% 0% 0% -1%

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates; Company data.

Note: GPI data shown is for the United States only.

While our outlook calls for only modestly declining new vehicle unit sales and

relatively flat new vehicle revenue, we do see new vehicle gross profit declining

faster, given ongoing pressure on gross margin

New vehicle Gross Profit per Unit (“GPU”) has declined this cycle despite a

continued increase in ATPs and recently moderating incentives. Consumers are

increasingly aware of the wholesale cost of vehicles to dealers and of the prevailing

retail price given the proliferation of third-party providers distributing this

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