中国城市扩张时空分析：以济南为例

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"A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Growth: A Case Study for Jinan Municipality, China (2006年)" 这篇文章是关于中国城市化进程中的空间和时间分析，以济南为例，进行了2003年前的城市土地扩张的时间序列分析。在描述中，提到了中国正在经历快速工业化和城市化的过程，这一过程导致了农业用地和环境的损失，特别是在沿海地区。文章选取了济南作为案例，揭示了城市土地扩张的情况。研究时间跨度从1930年代到2003年，特别关注了自1978年经济改革以来的城市扩张现象。文章的部分内容提到了社会发展、经济增长、城市人口增长以及迁移政策是推动济南城市扩张的主要因素。这些因素相互交织，共同塑造了济南城市化的复杂动态。 1. 社会发展：随着科技的进步和社会制度的变迁，城市设施和基础设施的建设加快，吸引了大量人口向城市聚集，促进了城市规模的扩大。 2. 经济增长：1978年以来的改革开放使中国经济迅速崛起，产业结构调整和工业化进程加速，导致城市成为经济活动的核心，进一步推动了城市边界向外扩展。 3. 城市人口增长：城市化进程伴随着人口的快速增长，尤其是农村人口向城市的迁移。这种人口流动促使城市需要更多的住房、商业和公共服务设施，从而驱动城市土地需求增加。 4. 迁移政策：中国的户籍制度和人口迁移政策对城市化产生了深远影响。政策的调整使得更多农村人口有机会在城市定居，进一步加剧了城市土地的紧张。该论文通过空间和时间的分析方法，不仅揭示了济南城市扩张的模式和速度，还深入探讨了这些变化背后的社会经济驱动力。这为理解和预测中国其他城市的发展趋势提供了参考，并对制定可持续城市规划策略具有重要意义。同时，这也反映了中国在快速城市化进程中面临的土地利用、环境保护和城乡平衡发展等重大问题。

48 Chinese Journal of Population, Resources and Environment 2006 Vol. 4 No.4

ARTICLES

Corresponding Author: Lu Changhe(luch@igsnrr.ac.cn)

A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Growth: A Case Study for

Jinan Municipality, China

Yu Bohua

1, 2,3

, Lu Changhe

, Zheng Xinqi

1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;

2. College of Resources Science & Technolgy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;

3. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Science (GUCAS), Beijing 100039, China;

4. Shandong Normal University, Jinan, Shandong 250014, China

Abstract: China is experiencing a process of rapid industrialization

and urbanization at the cost of agricultural land and environment,

particularly in the costal areas. This study takes Jinan as a case pre-

senting a time-series analysis of urban land expansion from 313 to

2003. The results show that the urban expansion of Jinan city

mainly took place in the last 100 years, especially after the eco-

nomic reform in 1978. Social development and economic growth,

urban population growth and migration policies were factors driving

the urban land expansion. Urban sprawl resulted in a disappearance

of wetlands and a great loss of agricultural land,

and over-pumping

of ground water that led to disappearance of the city’s feature,

namely

“the city of springs”.

Key words: urban land expansion; driving forces; environmental

effects; Jinan

1 Introduction

Since the implementation of the economic reform and

open-door policy in 1978, China has been experiencing a

process of rapid industrialization and urbanization. In 2002,

the proportion of urban population in China increased from

26.4% to in 1990 to 39.0%. Meanwhile, the number of cities

accordingly increased from 467 in 1990 to 660 in 2002 (NBSC,

2003).

The rapid urbanization creates opportunities for the socio-

economic development, triggers serious environmental con-

flicts and causes loss of productive farmland that is acknowl-

edged as a threat to the food security of China. Tan et al. (2005)

reported that in the 1990s, about 74% of the new urban land

was converted from arable land in the BTH region including

Beijing and Tianjin municipality, and Hebei province, where it

experienced a rapid process of urbanization and industrializa-

tion in the 1990s. Several studies concluded that social, eco-

nomic, political and location factors were major driving forces

of the rapid urban land use growth in China. Development of

urban road infrastructure (Cheng and Masser 2003), reforms of

land market, and tax policy and its decentralization process

after the reforms play key roles in the recent quick growth of

urban areas.

As the foreland of the economic reform, the east China

has experienced rapid economic development at a great

cost of arable land. It is estimated that in the total arable

land loss in the recent past, nearly half was due to industri-

alization and urbanization (Deng and Huang, 2004). The

Pearl delta was one of the most important agricultural re-

gions of China, but it has been largely replaced by

non-agricultural land due to development of many new

cities from small towns since 1978. Yeh and Li (1999) re-

ported that the urban area in the Pearl delta expanded by

974% between 1988 and 1993, mainly because of the prop-

erty boom and speculation in the Pearl River Delta and

Hong Kong in the early 1990s. Similar phenomena can be

found in the Yangtze delta, and other costal areas like Shan-

dong province.

China is now at a stage of rapid urbanization. So, urban

studies are needed for a better understanding of urban

growth mechanism to support formulation of urban land use

planning for sustainable urban land use and arable land

protection. As the capital city of Shandong Province with a

long history of more 2000 years, Jinan is representative for

the same type of city that is not only the capital but also as

the socio-economic centre of a province. This study, taking

Jinan as a case study, is to track the urban development

dynamics to deepen the understanding of spatial-temporal

characteristic and mechanism of the urban growth. More-

over, our aim is to analyze the impacts of urban land ex-

pansion on the environment and resource, to offer policy-

makers supports in urban land use planning, and in allevi-

ating the environmental impacts.

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