物联网转型：把握2021年的加速机遇

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“物联网：抓住加速机遇（2021）（90页）.pdf” 这篇报告由麦肯锡公司发布，聚焦于物联网（IoT，Internet of Things）领域的最新发展和商业机遇。作为全球知名的管理咨询公司，麦肯锡致力于协助私营、公共及社会部门的机构实现长期的成功。自成立以来，公司一直以成为客户最信赖的外部顾问为目标，通过遍布全球60多个市场的100多座城市的团队，提供跨行业和职能的专业知识。麦肯锡的物联网服务线是其业务的重要组成部分，已经帮助客户超过十年的时间，利用物联网的力量改造他们的业务。这项服务涵盖了整个技术栈的广泛专业知识，结合了公司在全球范围内公认的策略和数字转型能力。报告指出，物联网服务线为物联网用户和物联网技术供应商提供了全程支持。首先，定义总体战略，包括理解市场趋势、分析竞争对手以及评估潜在的商业模式。其次，设计和实施物联网解决方案，涉及硬件选择、软件开发、网络连接以及数据处理。此外，还包括了安全性考量，因为保护物联网系统免受攻击至关重要。在物联网的加速机遇方面，报告可能探讨了5G网络的普及如何推动更快的数据传输速度和更低的延迟，以及边缘计算如何在数据处理和分析上提供更高效能。同时，人工智能（AI）与物联网的融合可能会是报告中的关键议题，这种融合可以实现智能决策和自动化操作，提升效率和降低成本。报告可能还讨论了物联网在各个行业的应用，如工业4.0中的智能制造、智慧城市中的公共服务优化、医疗健康领域的远程监控以及零售业的个性化消费者体验。每个行业都面临着独特的挑战和机遇，例如数据安全、隐私保护、设备互操作性以及大规模部署的复杂性。在执行层面，报告可能提出了成功案例研究，分享了企业在物联网实施过程中的最佳实践和教训，以供其他组织参考和学习。此外，报告可能还强调了组织内部的变革管理和人才发展，因为物联网的成功不仅依赖于技术，也依赖于员工的技能和文化的适应。总结起来，这份长达90页的报告为读者提供了全面的物联网洞察，帮助企业领导者理解和把握这个快速发展的领域中的商机，制定有效的战略，并成功执行物联网项目。无论是对物联网的初学者还是经验丰富的从业者，都能从中获得有价值的见解和指导。

Through our research, we have

generated broad findings about the

evolution of the IoT and its impact,

based on a bottom-up approach. The

findings include perspectives on the

value-creation potential of the IoT and

the disaggregation of that value, as well

as detailed analysis on the reasons for

these changes. Among our key findings:

— The economic value that the IoT could

unlock is large and growing. By 2030,

we estimate that the IoT could enable

$5.5 trillion to $12.6 trillion in value

globally, including the value captured

by consumers and customers of IoT

products and services.

— The IoT’s potential for economic value

is concentrated in certain settings

(the types of physical environments

where the IoT is deployed) and use-

case clusters. There are 99 setting

and use-case clusters, and the top

five represent about 52 percent

of the potential economic value of

the IoT in 2020. Looking ahead to

2030, the share of these same five

combinations decreases to about 40

to 48 percent of potential economic

value as more use cases gain

traction.

— The majority of value can be created

in B2B applications. By 2030, we

estimate that B2B applications will

account for about 65 percent of the

potential of the IoT. But the value of

B2C applications is growing quickly,

spurred by faster-than-expected

adoption of IoT solutions within the

home.

— While the potential economic value

of the IoT is considerable, capturing

this value has proved challenging,

particularly in B2B settings.

Many enterprises have struggled

to successfully transition from

running pilots to capturing value at

scale. We estimated the total value

captured by 2020 ($1.6 trillion), while

considerable, to be in the lower end

of the range of the scenarios we

mapped out in 2015.

— The value-capture picture varies

across settings. In the Home setting,

adoption and impact grew faster

than expected, and given existing

trends, we anticipate adoption and

impact at Offices and Work Sites

to accelerate. Conversely, value

creation is progressing slower than

expected in Factories (which we

expect to generate the most value

of all settings), Outside, Retail

Environments, and Vehicles.

— In general, the technology needed

to implement the IoT is available and

sufficient. In addition, customers

see real value in deploying the IoT.

But in settings that have lagged

behind, organizational challenges,

technology cost, and issues with

cybersecurity, interoperability, and

installation have all too often resulted

in “pilot purgatory.” The starkest

example of this is in Factories, where

70 percent of manufacturers have

been unable to scale beyond pilots.

— Interoperability is crucial to achieving

maximum impact for the IoT. About

25 percent of the 2030 lower-

value estimate could be enabled

by interoperability, while at the

high end, up to 74 percent could be

enabled by broad interoperability.

The fundamental challenge is that

current technology stacks are

fragmented (except at the cloud

layer) and siloed, with many walled-

garden, proprietary systems. Solving

this issue is critical for the IoT to

reach its maximum potential.

— The developed world will account

for 55 percent of the total global

value potential of the IoT in 2030,

decreasing from 61 percent in 2020.

China is becoming a global IoT force,

not only as a manufacturing hub and

technology supplier but also as an

end market for value creation. By

2030, China could generate about

26 percent of the total global value

of the IoT, equal to the potential of

all emerging markets combined (and

above its share of the global economy

of about 20 percent). In the same

period, we expect the emerging

world’s share to grow from 16 percent

to 19 percent of total potential value.

In addition to researching the potential

of the IoT to create value, we have

examined why the technology has

gained ground in some settings and

lagged behind in others.

From a tailwind perspective, the verdict

is clear. Customers see real value in

deploying the IoT. Compared with 2015,

the technology and networks needed

to implement the IoT are available and

9The Internet of Things: Catching up to an accelerating opportunity

sufficient. In general, technology is not

the constraining factor.

However, there are still significant

headwinds to overcome. Change

management remains a big issue: too

many companies and governments treat

the IoT as a technology project rather than

as an operating-model transformation.

In addition, privacy, cybersecurity,

installation, talent, and interoperability

continue to challenge organizations.

Economic value potential

of IoT

In disaggregating the potential value

of IoT by setting, we found that the

Factories setting accounts for the

largest amount of potential economic

value from IoT in 2030, about 26 percent.

The Human Health setting is second,

representing about 10 to 14 percent of

estimated economic value in 2030 (see

Exhibit 1).

We disaggregated the potential

economic value of the IoT primarily by

setting. Another approach we took is

looking at value by use-case cluster,

Exhibit 1

Web <2021>

Exhibit <1> of <18>

The Factories setting, which includes all standardized production

environments, accounts for the most potential economic value from IoT.

Estimated economic value, 2030, $ billions

Setting

TotalTop use cases

Factories

Human Health

Grand total 5,500–12,600

Operations management:

Manufacturing, 460–1,290

Farm yield management, 250–520

Predictive maintenance:

Manufacturing, 260–460

Monitoring and treating

illness, 240–1,200

Improving wellness, 310–560

550–1,760

Work Sites

Operations management:

Construction, 70–540

Operations management: Oil and

gas, 80–300

Improved equipment maintenance:

Construction, 20–220

400–1,730

City

Centralized and adaptive trac

control, 100–390

Autonomous vehicles, 240–300

Congestion lanes, 70–150

970–1,700

Oces

Human productivity: HR redesign, 110–260

Human productivity: Augmented reality, 30–100

Human productivity: Activity monitoring, 60–80

Retail Environments

Self-checkout: Billing and

material handling, 280–340

Real-time personalized promotions, 60–190

Self-checkout: Payments, 140–180

650–1,150

Outside

Autonomous vehicles: Cars, 140–250

Operations management in defense, 60–190

Ship navigation, 80–160

400–930

Home

Chore automation, 290–580

Energy management: Home, 130–230

Safety and security, 20

440–830

Vehicles

Insurance: Personal transportation, 130–140

Passenger vehicles and trucks: After-sales

service improvements (eg, condition-based

maintenance), 90–140

Shipping: After-sales service improvements

(eg, condition-based maintenance), 40–70

430–620

240–500

1,430–3,320

Setting

TotalTop use cases

Note: Figures may not sum, because of rounding.

The Factories setting, which includes all standardized production

environments, accounts for the most potential economic value from IoT.

10 The Internet of Things: Catching up to an accelerating opportunity

Exhibit 2

Web <2021>

Exhibit <2> of <18>

Among use-case clusters, operations optimization is estimated to provide

the most economic value by 2030.

Disaggregation of economic value by use-case cluster,

maximum estimated economic value, 2030, %

Note: Figures may not sum to 100%, because of rounding.

112223412151541

CAGR 2020–30,

Operations optimization

Human productivity

Health

Condition-based maintenance

Sales enablement

Energy management

Autonomous vehicles

Environment management

Safety and security

Product development

Inventory management

Among use-case clusters, operations optimization is estimated to provide the

most economic value by 2030.

which allows us to observe the effects

of use cases that are similar in nature

but arise in different settings, such

as condition-based maintenance and

human-productivity improvement

(Exhibit2).

Using this approach, our research

indicates that the operations-

optimization and human-productivity

clusters could account for about

56percent of the economic value in

2030; health and condition-based

maintenance are estimated at about

15 and 12 percent, respectively. Of the

clusters, environment management and

autonomous vehicles are concentrated

in a small number of settings (Cities,

for example). Other clusters cut across

many more settings.

The operations-optimization cluster

appears in five settings—the most of

any cluster—but is most prominent in

Factories (37 percent of the operations-

optimization cluster). In addition to being

the largest use-case cluster, operations

optimization will grow the most in

absolute terms. It accounts for 41 percent

of the 2030 potential economic value.

In relative terms, vehicle autonomy

(particularly advanced driver-assistance

systems, or ADAS) is the fastest-

growing cluster. Its expected growth is

37 percent a year in the high scenario,

from $0.01 trillion in 2020 to $0.3

trillion in 2030. In 202025, value is

expected to be driven by increased

safety as a result of increased adoption

of ADAS Level 2 and Level 2+ features.

In the second half of the decade, if

technology development is successful

and regulations permit, we could see a

ramp-up of autonomous robo-taxis and

robo-shuttles, leading to much higher

potential for economic value creation.

Economic value concentration

by settings and use cases

While we assessed more than 120 use

cases across nine settings and 11 use-

case clusters, our findings show high

concentrations of economic value.

What appears to be a fragmented

value-creation landscape is actually

quite the opposite. Just five of the 99

combinations of setting and use-case

clusters account for about 50 percent

of the highest scenario for potential

economic value by 2030 (Exhibit 3):

— Factories setting and operations-

optimization cluster

— Human Health setting and

health cluster

11The Internet of Things: Catching up to an accelerating opportunity

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