Psycholory
in
the
Schools
1980.
/I.
340-346
A BRIEF SCREENING BATTERY FOR PREDICTING
SCHOOL ACHIEVEMENT
AT
AGES SEVEN AND NINE YEARS
ROBERT
FRIEDMAN
Southern Calfjornia Permanente Medical Group
JOHN H.
FUERTH
ALAN
8.
FORSYTHE
Panorama Clty Medical Center
This article describe8 the development, utilization, and evaluation of an early screen-
ing battery for predicting school success or failure. The battery was administered
to
the pediatric population
of
the Southern California Permanente Medical Group,
Panorama City Medical Center, at the time of the routine five-year health examina-
tion. For
41
I
children whose school performance was assessed by the teacher at age
seven years, the Caldwell Test was the best predictor, but it had significant value for
girls only
(p<O.oOOl).
In
1,251
children evaluated at age nine years, the
Beery-
Butkenica Developmental
Test
of Visual-Motor Integration (VMI) and the Caldwell
Test were the best predictors
(pS0.003).
In
600
children for whom we had teacher
ratings at ages seven and nine years, the VMI repeated at age-seven years significantly
predicted academic achievement and reading at age nine years for girls and boys
@=0.0()7).
Although combining the academic performance with
VMI
results at age
seven years yielded
89%
accuracy of prediction at age nine years, the false-positive
rate represents a serious practical problem
of
mislabeling children as school failures.
University OjCaliJornia,
Los
Angeles
Accurate prediction of school achievement and the early identification of children
who are at high risk for school failure has been a concern of educators for many years.
DeHirsch, Jansky, and Langford’s
Predicting Reading Failure
in
the 1960s stimulated
interest
in
the use of screening test batteries to predict school failure. Studies using this
approach have reported varying degrees of success (Barton, et al., 1972; Duffy, et al.,
1972; Feschback, et al., 1974; Klein, 1977; Satz
&
Friel, 1978; Weintraub, et al., 1978-
1979). Satz and Friel noted positive outcomes in a longitudinal study
of
an eight-test
battery administered at the beginning of kindergarten.
This article describes the development, utilization, and evaluation of an early
screening battery for predicting school success or failure. The battery was part
of
a large-
scale research project whose objective was to increase the effectiveness of the pediatrician
in
evaluating school readiness as a part of comprehensive pediatric health care. A com-
plete description
of
the research study is reported in a separate publication (Fuerth, et al.,
1979).
METHOD
Subjects
The battery was administered to the pediatric population
of
the Southern California
Permanente Medical Group, Panorama City Medical Center, at the time of the routine
five-year health examination. The center is part
of
the prepaid Kaiser Foundation Health
Plan serving the urban San Fernando Valley area of Los Angeles, which has
predominantly white, blue-collar
or
middle-class residents.
Instrument
Criteria
for
the test battery.
-
Reprint requests
to
Robert Friedman,
Vermont Ave.,
Los
Angeles, CA
90027.
Cost effectiveness is a critical issue in health care
Dept. of Psychiatry, Kaiser-Permanente Medical Center,
1515
N.
340