1.12 Criminal Analysis and Data Mining
Data mining is a process that uses various statistical and pattern-recognition techniques to discover
patterns and relationships in data. It does not include business intelligence tools, such as query and
reporting tools, on-line analytic processing (OLAP), or decision support systems. Those tools report on
data and answer predefined questions, whereas data mining tools focus on finding previously unknown
patterns and relationships among variables—in this case, for detecting and preventing criminal activity.
While some will argue that forensics only applies to sciences used in court for convictions, the
objective of recognizing threats and crime is also extremely important.
Unlike criminology, which re-enacts a crime in order to solve it, criminal analysis uses historical
observations to come up with solutions. In criminal analysis, statistical examinations are performed on
the frequency of specific crimes in order to evaluate the security of property and persons. Criminal
analysis involves very careful evaluation of the location, time, and type of crime that has been
committed at a building, neighborhood, beat, city, county, etc. Crime statistics, risks and probabilities
are very much what criminal analysis is all about. Data mining, as with criminal analysis, has the same
overall goal: the detection and prevention of crimes. The following scenario provides a good example
of how criminal analysis works: A security professional in a large office building maintains information
about all the criminal activity that has taken place on his property over three years, including the
following incidents:
One of the most important tasks of criminal analysis is to breakdown the pattern of crimes to evaluate
when, where, and why they are occurring. In the case of this particular building, for example, the
objective is to reduce crime by improving security. This type of analysis, however, is not as much
offender-specific as target-specific; in other words, it begs the question
"why is the garage a target for
such a high rate of thefts?"
By focusing on when, where, and why break-in auto thefts are taking place,
preventive security measures can be taken to deter future criminal acts. Through research and the
documentation of crimes and categorization by type of offenses, location, and time, gradual patterns
and trends will emerge, which will lead to preventive solutions. This type of criminal analysis can be
automated through the use of data mining for uncovering subtle patterns in large data sets.
Obviously, understanding the environment in which crime takes place is very important in criminal
analysis. In this example, examining where crimes are taking place is critical; locations must be broken
down by categories into main areas, such as the main entrance, side entrances, offices, common
areas, walkways to the building from the garage, walkways from the streets, and the parking garage.
In addition, the surrounding areas must be considered, such as adjoining buildings, strip malls, parks,
residential neighborhood, etc.
In order to gauge the level of crime at this particular building, a comparison of crime data statistics can
be considered by the analyst; for example, how does the rate of auto thefts for the property compare
with the rate for the same crime at the local law enforcement agency levels, at the beat, district,
precinct, city, county, metropolitan statistical area (MSA), state, and national levels. Using the FBI's
Uniform Crime Report (UCR) codification system, rate comparisons can be made by following
categories:
Murder
1.
Rape
2.
Robbery
3.
4.
5.