"中国房地产业转折点：股市估值未能反映宽松政策"

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The report titled "China Real Estate Industry: Grasping the Turning Point" by Macquarie provides an in-depth analysis of the real estate industry in China. The report highlights that valuations in the market are yet to reflect the relaxation in policies, indicating a potential opportunity for investors. It also discusses the market share of the top 50 developers, offering insights into the competitive landscape of the industry. Macquarie's research is based on data from sources such as the National Bureau of Statistics, Bloomberg, and CRIC. The report emphasizes the need for investors to consider quality stocks in the Chinese property market and presents Longfor Group Holdings as a steady investment option. The report was published on 8 January 2019 and provides valuable information for investors looking to understand the dynamics of the Chinese real estate market. It also directs readers to page 25 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or to visit the Macquarie website for further details. Overall, the report serves as a comprehensive guide for investors seeking opportunities in the Chinese real estate industry, offering data-driven insights and recommendations for potential investment strategies. It sheds light on the current state of the market and the factors influencing valuations, making it a valuable resource for anyone interested in understanding and navigating the complexities of the Chinese property sector.

Macquarie Research China property sector

8 January 2019 6

Price restrictions – the first administrative measure being relaxed

Price restrictions have been introduced widely by local governments since early 2017. A price cap is a

powerful administrative, though distortive, measure to curb property prices, in our view. Price restrictions

not only affect a property project’s ASP and profitability but also slow the pace of project launch, volume

growth and in some cases buyers’ financing. We believe the local governments aim at keeping both ASP

and sales volume stable. Developers are advised of an ASP (price cap) when they apply for a presale

permit for a project. Some developers hold back their launches when the ASP guided by the local

government is much lower than their expectation (some are even lower than the secondary housing price

or at par to the recent land price). However, execution varies across cities and even across districts in a

city. Some developers/projects in some cities/districts are able to get around the price cap by using double

contracts for a property transaction – one being the property contract with an ASP in line with the

government’s agreed price while the other is a furnishing contract making up the shortfall to the “actual”

price. In this case, a price cap does have a negative impact on buyers’ financing. Developers with

nationwide footprint or diversified portfolio should have better flexibility to adjust their launch schedule and

minimise the impact.

The short-term demand-supply dynamics are distorted by price restrictions – primary home price, in many

cases, is cheaper than secondary prices and buyers enjoy immediate paper gains after a home purchase.

Developers are able to leverage their reputable brands to attract quality buyers who are able to pay full

cash or a large down-payment. Thus, price caps often result in improper property selling activities. Many

cities consequently further regulate property sales and crack down on illegal activities. For instance, a

lottery system for property sales has been introduced in some cities and this means developers are unable

to take full advantage of their strong brands to maximise cash collection. In some cases, developers are

required to allocate a certain percentage of supply to rigid demand and they are not allowed to give priority

to preferred buyers – those who are able to pay full cash or use Housing Provident Fund. Having said that,

some leading developers are still able to lock in quality buyers with higher upfront cash payment.

We have seen different degrees of easing of price restrictions in various cities since the housing market

started cooling down. On 22 October 2018, Guangzhou removed double contract and eased price

restrictions in three outskirt districts, namely Zengcheng, Nansha and Huadu. Real transacted prices can

be and should be registered with local housing authorities. No double contracts are allowed or needed. We

believe the move reflects the Guangzhou government’s concern on the potential risk of a weakening

housing market and of social disharmony. Buyers will have less burden in the form of downpayment, with

the total lump sum home price being eligible for mortgage. More importantly, the change in policy stance

has helped a recovery of the buying sentiment.

Scrap of presale system – unlikely

Market discussion on the scrapping of the whole presale system was triggered after the Guangdong Real

Estate Association provided its feedback on China’s property presale system to the Ministry of Housing on

21 September 2018. We believe the suggestions by the Association do not necessarily imply any policy

direction/stance. The housing authorities already clarified the market misunderstanding through local

media. There were some cases in which sales of completed properties were required for land sales in

Southern China. We have seen no city-wide or nationwide implementation. In view of a cooling land

market, abolishment of the presales system is unlikely. We think it is too risky to suddenly end the presales

system. Presales play an important role in the fast asset churn model by funding the initial investment such

as land and construction capex. Presales can commence as early as 6-12 months after land purchase,

while construction takes 24-36 months to complete. If presales are abolished and only completed

properties can be sold, it would delay cash collection by 18-24 months. Property developers would have

substantial cash flow pressure. On the other hand, secondary housing prices would rise with supply

shrinking sharply. The land market may yet cool down, as developers have weak balance sheets and cash

flow for further investment. We expect this to have negative implications for the whole supply chain

(cement, steel, electrical appliances) and GDP.

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