硬盘可靠性建模与故障预测：环境因素与产品模式的影响

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本文档探讨了硬盘驱动器（HDD）的可靠性建模与预测，重点关注磁头-盘片分离作为主要独立变量。作者通过对环境因素如温度、海拔、湿度以及硬盘工作模式的理论影响和实际经验数据的结合，提出了一种针对HDD可靠性的模型。研究采用基于磁性间隙损失理论的实验方法，以确定磁头与介质之间的分离随操作条件变化的关系。通过建立统计模型，该模型能够预测不同运行状况下的硬盘可靠性。首先，介绍部分指出了HDD可靠性预测的重要性和挑战，因为硬盘是存储设备的核心组件，其性能和稳定性对系统的整体可靠性至关重要。随着技术的发展，磁头-盘片的微小差距决定了数据读写的速度和准确性，而环境因素和使用条件的变化可能导致这一差距发生变化，从而影响硬盘的性能和寿命。文章的核心内容包括以下几个方面： 1. **理论与环境影响**：作者研究了环境因素如何影响硬盘的磁头-盘片分离，这些因素可能通过改变介质材料的热膨胀系数或机械结构的应力应变来间接影响可靠性。比如，高温可能导致材料变形，降低磁头精确度，而湿度则可能影响润滑性能。 2. **实验方法**：通过精密的实验，作者利用磁性间隙损失理论来测量磁头在不同环境条件下与盘片的距离，这一步骤对于理解磁头动作的精确性和稳定性至关重要。 3. **统计模型构建**：基于实验数据，研究人员开发了一种统计模型，考虑了环境参数和工作模式对硬盘故障率的影响。这种模型可能是基于机器学习算法，如回归分析或时间序列分析，用于预测HDD在特定条件下的故障概率。 4. **验证与应用**：模型的预测能力通过与实际的HDD产品可靠性测试数据进行对比来验证。如果模型的预测结果与实际故障发生情况吻合，那么它就有很高的实用价值，可以帮助制造商优化设计，提高产品质量，并帮助用户做出更合理的维护决策。 5. **关键词**：论文的关键词包括“Failure prediction”（故障预测）、“HDD”（硬盘驱动器）、“head-disk clearance”（磁头-盘片间隙）和“magnetic hard disk drive”（磁性硬盘驱动器），这些词汇突出了论文的核心研究领域和技术内容。这篇论文提供了一种系统的方法来理解和预测HDD的可靠性，这对优化硬盘设计、降低故障率以及提高数据存储系统的整体可靠性具有重要意义。

3676 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON MAGNETICS, VOL. 43, NO. 9, SEPTEMBER 2007

Hard Disk Drive Reliability Modeling and Failure Prediction

Brian D. Strom

, SungChang Lee

, George W. Tyndall

, and Andrei Khurshudov

Samsung Information Systems America, San Jose, CA 95134 USA

Seagate Technology, Longmont, CO 80503 USA

A reliability model for the hard disk drive (HDD) is developed, focusing on head–disk separation as the primary independent vari-

able. The model is structured to incorporate the theoretical effects of environmental factors, plus empirical dependence on the product

operating mode. An experimental method based on magnetic spacing loss theory is used to characterize the head–media separation as a

function of temperature, altitude, humidity, and HDD operating mode. A statistical model based on these empirical data is developed to

predict HDD reliability for various operating conditions. The predictions of the model are veriﬁed experimentally through comparison

with HDD product reliability test data.

Index Terms—Failure prediction, HDD, head–disk clearance, magnetic hard disk drive, reliability model.

I. I

NTRODUCTION

HE hard disk drive (HDD) is a highly complex, mass-pro-

duced, electro-mechanical device that utilizes principles of

magnetic recording for data storage. As fundamental elements

of modern computer systems and consumer electronic devices,

HDDs have managed to combine a steady increase in storage

density and capacity with a concomitant decrease in the cost per

megabyte. The HDD combines the most recent achievements in

the science and technology of magnetic recording, material sci-

ence, and digital signal processing.

The slider, read/write heads, and magnetic recording media

are the key components of the HDD and form together the

head–disk interface (HDI), illustrated in Fig. 1. These heads are

integrated into the ceramic slider, which includes an air-bearing

surface (ABS) formed in relief on its surface facing the disk

[Fig. 1(a)]. Air entrained between the ABS and disk generates

lift by virtue of the viscous properties of air being squeezed

through the gap. The ﬂow of air is guided by the ABS to control

the head–media spacing within close tolerance (

0.1 nm).

The separation distance between read/write elements and the

disk directly affects both signal strength and resolution, and

is therefore critical to the recording density of the HDD. As

magnetic recording densities increase, the magnetic spacing and

hence the head ﬂying height must decrease correspondingly.

Today, only a few nanometers separate the slider from the disk

surface moving at 30 m/s.

A. Deﬁnition of Head–Disk Clearance

We deﬁne clearance as the difference between the ﬂying

height (FH) and the glide height avalanche (GHA), which is

the level of highest detected disk asperities. The distribution of

ﬂying height in a slider population is typically normal, charac-

terized by its mean and standard deviation. In a well-designed

interface, the lowest-ﬂying slider of the total population will ﬂy

signiﬁcantly above the GHA, eliminating the possibility that

Digital Object Identiﬁer 10.1109/TMAG.2007.902969

Color versions of one or more of the ﬁgures in this paper are available online

at http://ieeexplore.ieee.org.

Fig. 1. Schematic diagrams of the head–disk interface. (a) The slider contains

the read/write heads and is positioned on the disk by its suspension. The slider

also includes the air-bearing surface (ABS) facing the disk. (b) The slider in side

view, ﬂying over a cross section of the disk surface (roughness exaggerated).

Recording transducers write to and read from the disk magnetic layer, while

carbon overcoat (COC), lubricant layers, and surface roughness limit how close

to the disk the recording elements can ﬂy.

any heads drag on the disk at high speed. Fig. 2(A) illustrates

such a condition for an exemplary product operating at room

temperature: it has mean clearance 5.3 nm and standard devia-

tion 0.8 nm, thus operating at a 6-sigma level ensuring positive

clearance.

The demand for HDD products with higher areal densities,

coupled with the cost pressures of a mass-production environ-

ment where inspection of all incoming components is not prac-

tical, can result in HDD product populations having some ﬁnite

“interference” of the FH distribution with the GHA. This inter-

ference can be exacerbated by the environmental conditions in

which the HDD is operated. In Fig. 2(B), we illustrate the case

of “minor interference” where the tail of the ﬂying height dis-

tribution overlaps the disk GHA level. Fig. 2(c) shows the case

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