美国机器人发展路线图：制造业的未来

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"美国机器人发展路线图：从互联网到机器人，这份报告由美国多所知名大学和研究机构共同组织编写，旨在探讨机器人技术在经济中的关键作用，以及在制造业中的具体应用和发展规划。" 报告首先强调了机器人技术作为关键经济驱动力的重要性。它指出，机器人技术不仅能够提升生产效率，还能催生新的经济增长点。随着科技的进步，机器人已经渗透到各个领域，尤其是在制造业中，其战略地位日益凸显。在"Roadmap Results"部分，报告总结了主要发现，即机器人技术的快速发展将对制造业产生深远影响，包括生产自动化、定制化生产和工作环境的改变等。这些变化将进一步推动经济的创新与增长。在针对特定领域的结论中，报告提到了几个关键点。一是经济推动力，机器人技术可以降低生产成本，提高产品质量，从而增强企业的竞争力；二是增长领域，如医疗、服务、家庭自动化等，机器人技术的应用潜力巨大；三是“消费者化”趋势，随着技术的普及，机器人正在变得更加用户友好，易于被大众接受；四是制造愿景，未来的制造业将更加依赖于智能机器人，实现高度灵活和定制化的生产流程。报告的第1章详细阐述了机器人在制造业的应用路线图。执行摘要概括了该领域的主要挑战和机遇。报告介绍了机器人在制造业中的引入，强调了其在经济上的重要性，并讨论了战略意义。接着，报告详细描述了研究路线图的制定过程，展示了机器人与制造业结合的实例，明确了制造业所需的关键能力。在研究与发展方向上，报告提出了几个有前景的领域：学习与适应能力，使机器人能够不断改进其性能；模型构建、分析、模拟和控制，以优化机器人的操作；以及形式化方法，确保机器人系统的安全性和可靠性。总体而言，这份报告为美国乃至全球的机器人产业发展提供了指导，强调了技术创新对于制造业转型的关键作用，并描绘了从互联网时代向机器人时代的过渡蓝图。这份路线图对于政策制定者、科研人员以及相关产业的从业者都具有重要的参考价值。

8 A Roadmap for U.S. Robotics—From Internet to Robotics (2013)

This white paper summarizes the strategic importance of robotics and automation technologies to man-

ufacturing industries in the U.S. economy, describes applications where robotics and automation tech-

nologies will dramatically increase productivity, and outlines a visionary research and development

roadmap with key research areas for immediate investment to reach these goals.

1. Introduction

This document summarizes the activities and results of a

workshop on manufacturing and automation robotics that

was carried out under the auspices of the Robotics-VO, an or-

ganization sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

The workshop was one of five organized to update A Roadmap

for U.S. Robotics: From Internet to Robotics [NRR 09]. The objec-

tive of the workshop was an update of the roadmap consider-

ing progress over the last 4-5 years. The research agenda

proposed in this report will lead to a significant strengthening

of the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy, a well-

trained, technologically astute workforce, the creation of new

jobs, and broad-based prosperity for Americans.

The terms “robotics” and “automation” have a precise technical meaning. According to the Robotics and

Automation Society of the Institute of Electronics and Electrical Engineers, “Robotics focuses on sys-

tems incorporating sensors and actuators that operate autonomously or semi-autonomously in coopera-

tion with humans. Robotics research emphasizes intelligence and adaptability to cope with

unstructured environments. Automation research emphasizes efficiency, productivity, quality, and reli-

ability, focusing on systems that operate autonomously, often in structured environments over ex-

tended periods, and on the explicit structuring of such environments.”

The Manufacturing and Automation Robotics Workshop was held on October 2, 2012 in Washington

D.C. (http://robotics-vo.us/node/201). The goal was three-fold: First, to determine the strategic impor-

tance of robotics and automation technologies in manufacturing industries in the U.S. economy (Sec-

tion 2); second, to determine applications where robotics and automation technologies could increase

productivity (Section 3); and third, to determine research and development that needs to be done in

order to make robotics and automation technologies cost effective in these applications (Section 4). To

achieve this, whitepapers describing current uses and future needs of robotics in industry were solicited

from professionals responsible for manufacturing in their companies. A number of academics were also

invited to ensure broad coverage across research and practice.

2. Strategic Importance of Robotics in Manufacturing

2.1 Economic Impetus

The basis for the economic growth in the last century came from industrialization, the core of which was

manufacturing. The manufacturing sector represents 14% of the U.S. GDP and about 11% of the total em-

ployment [WB-11,BEA-11]. Fully 70% of the net export of the U.S. is related to manufacturing [State09],

Image courtesy of Seegrid

Chapter 1—Roadmap for Robotics in Manufacturing 9

so the sector represents an area of extreme importance to the general economic health of the country.

Within manufacturing, robotics represents a $5B industry in the U.S. that is growing steadily at 8% per

year. This core robotics industry is supported by the manufacturing industry, which provides the instru-

mentation, auxiliary automation equipment, and the systems integration adding up to a $20B industry.

The U.S. manufacturing economy has changed significantly over the last 30 years. Despite signiﬁcant

losses to Canada, China, Mexico, and Japan over recent years, manufacturing still represents a major

sector of the U.S. economy. Manufacturing, which includes the production of all goods from consumer

electronics to industrial equipment, accounts for 14% of the U.S. GDP, and 10% of U.S. employment

[WB06]. U.S. manufacturing productivity exceeds that of its principal trading partners. We lead all

countries in productivity, both per hour and per employee [FAM-11]. Our per capita productivity contin-

ues to increase with more than a 100% increase over the last three decades. Indeed it is this rising pro-

ductivity that keeps U.S. manufacturing competitive in the midst of recession and recovery and in the

face of the amazing growth in China, India, and other emerging economies. Much of this productivity

increase and efficiency can be attributed to innovations in technology and the use of technology in prod-

uct design and manufacturing processes.

However, this dynamic is also changing. Ambitious foreign competitors are investing in fundamental re-

search and education that will improve their manufacturing processes. On the other hand, the fraction of

the U.S. manufacturing output that is being invested in research and development has essentially re-

mained constant over this period. The U.S. share of total research and development funding in the world

has dropped significantly to only 28%. Our foreign competitors are using the same innovations in tech-

nology with, in some cases, significantly lower labor costs to undercut U.S. dominance, so U.S. manufac-

turing industry is facing increasing pressure. Our balance of trade in manufactured goods is dropping at

an alarming $50 billion per decade. Additionally, with our aging population, the number of workers is also

decreasing rapidly and optimistic projections point to two workers per pensioner in 2050 [UN-08]. Ro-

botic workers must pick up the slack from human workers to sustain the increases in productivity that are

needed with a decrease in the number of human workers [PCMR-11]. Finally, dramatic advances in robot-

ics and automation technologies are even more critical with the next generation of high-value products

that rely on embedded computers, advanced sensors and microelectronics requiring micro- and nano-

scale assembly, for which labor-intensive manufacturing with human workers is no longer a viable option.

In contrast to the U.S., China, South Korea, Japan, and India are investing heavily in higher education

and research [NAE07]. India and China are systematically luring back their scientists and engineers

after they are trained in the U.S. According to [NAE07], they are “…in essence, sending students away to

gain skills and providing jobs to draw them back.” This contrast in investment is evident in the specific

areas related to robotics and manufacturing. Korea has been investing $100M per year for 10 years

(2002-2012) into robotics research and education as part of their 21st Century Frontier Program. The Eu-

ropean Commission has been investing $600M into robotics and cognitive systems as part of the 7th

Framework Programme. In the Horizon 2020 program, that investment will be completed by another

$900M for manufacturing and robotics. While smaller in comparison to the commitments of Korea and

the European Commission, Japan is investing $350M over the next 10 years in humanoid robotics, serv-

ice robotics, and intelligent environments. The non-defense U.S. federal investment is small by most

measures compared to these investments.

At the same time, robotics is gaining significant importance for automation and logistics. In recogni-

tion of the importance of robotics, Amazon during 2012 acquired the company Kiva Systems at a price of

10 A Roadmap for U.S. Robotics—From Internet to Robotics (2013)

$700M to have access to the best technology for warehouse automation. In addition, companies such as

Apple [New York Times, Dec. 8, 2012] and Lenovo are in-sourcing jobs as the cost of manufacturing in Asia

no longer is so much cheaper that it pays off to outsource. In addition, during 2011, Tesla Motors in Cali-

fornia opened up a factory for the manufacturing of alternative fuel cars using heavy automation to en-

able all of the manufacturing to remain the United States.

2.2 Growth Areas

The Department of Commerce and the Council on Competitiveness [CoC08, CoC10, DoC04] have ana-

lyzed a broad set of companies as to their consolidated annual growth rates. The data categorized for

major industrial sectors is shown in the table below.

Current growth areas for manufacturing include logistics, including material handling and robotics.

Given the importance of manufacturing in general, it is essential to consider how technology such as ro-

botics can be leveraged to strengthen U.S. manufacturing industry.

2.3 “Consumerization” of Robotics

Many advanced technologies have demonstrated that once they are introduced into the vast consumer

market, the pace of innovation increases and the costs decrease. Notable examples include personal

computers and mobile communications. Both of these technologies were initially developed and driven

based on corporate needs and requirements. However, once they were introduced into the consumer

market, the research dollars were amplified by corporate investments. This resulted in rapid technology

development and dramatic cost reductions. This also spurred the creation of entirely new U.S. compa-

nies and industries that currently make up a large percentage of the USGDP and dominate the NASDAQ.

Fostering a consumer market for robotics and robotics related technologies would have similar impacts.

One simple example is the Microsoft Kinect interface. This interface, which was developed for the home

computer gaming market, has advanced the use of voice and gesture interactions at a price point that

makes it commercially viable for a number of commercial and business applications. An additional ben-

efit of the “consumerization” of robotics would be the acceptance and familiarity by the target workforce.

When people are accustomed to interacting with robots in their personal life, then they will have more

Sector

Average Growth

Growth

Robotics–Manufacturing, Service, and Medical 20%

0-90%

IP Companies 25%

15-32%

Entertainment/Toys 6%

4-21%

Media/Games 14%

2-48%

Home Appliances

-5-6%

Capital Equipment 9%

-2-18%

Automotive

-11-31%

Logistics

22%

6-92%

Automation

2-12%

Consolidated annual growth rates over a set of 280 U.S. companies for the period 2004-2011

Chapter 1—Roadmap for Robotics in Manufacturing 11

acceptance of working with them in their professional life and will be less likely to view robots as a

threat. For example, two-thirds of the owners of iRobot’s autonomous vacuum cleaner have named their

Roomba, and one-third admit to taking their Roomba to visit friends.

2.4 A Vision for Manufacturing

U.S. manufacturing today is where database tech-

nology was in the early 1960s, a patchwork of ad

hoc solutions that lacked the rigorous methodology

that leads to scientific innovation. In 1970, Ted

Codd, an IBM mathematician, invented relational

algebra, an elegant mathematical database model

that galvanized federally funded research and edu-

cation leading to today’s $14 billion database indus-

try. Manufacturing would benefit enormously if

analogous models could be developed. Just as the

method to add two numbers together doesn’t de-

pend on what kind of pencil you use, manufactur-

ing abstractions might be wholly independent of the product one is making or the assembly line systems

used to assemble it.

Another precedent is the Turing Machine, an elegant abstract model invented by Alan Turing in the 1930s,

which established the mathematical and scientific foundations for our now-successful high-tech indus-

tries. An analogy to the Turing Machine for design, automation, and manufacturing could produce

tremendous payoffs. Recent developments in computing and information science now make it possible

to model and reason about physical manufacturing processes, setting the stage for researchers to “put the

Turing into ManufacTuring.” The result, as with databases and computers, would be higher quality, more

reliable products, reduced costs, and faster delivery [GK07, PCMR-11, FAM-11].

More effective use of robotics, through improved robotics technologies and a well-trained workforce, will

increase U.S. jobs and global competitiveness. Traditional assembly-line workers are nearing retirement

age. American workers are currently not well trained to work with robotic technologies and the costs of

insurance and healthcare continue to rise. Even when workers are affordable, the next generation of

miniaturized, complex products with short life cycles requires assembly adaptability, precision, and relia-

bility beyond the skills of human workers. Widespread deployment of improved robotics and automation

in manufacturing will: (a) retain intellectual property and wealth that would go off-shore without it, (b)

save companies by making them more competitive, (c) provide jobs for maintaining and training robots,

(d) allow factories to employ human-robot teams that safely leverage each others’ strengths (e.g., humans

are better at dealing with unexpected events to keep production lines running, while robots have better

precision and repeatability, and can lift heavy parts), (e) reduce expensive medical problems (e.g., carpal

tunnel syndrome, back injuries, burns, and inhalation of noxious gases and vapors), and (f) reduce time

in the pipeline for finished goods, allowing systems to be more responsive to changes in retail demand.

Investments in research and education in manufacturing can revitalize American manufacturing. Invest-

ing a small portion of our national resources into a science of cost-effective, resource-efficient manufac-

turing would benefit American consumers and would support millions of workers in this vital sector of

the U.S. economy. Such investments would benefit healthcare, agriculture, and transportation, and

would strengthen our national resources in defense, energy, and security. The resulting flurry of research

activity would invigorate the quality and productivity of “Made in the U.S.A.” for the next fifty years.

Image courtesy of Mixabest via Wikimedia Commons

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