"麦格理全球基础设施行业Q1投资收益指南：全球基础设施投资趋势与收益策略"。

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Macquarie's Global Infrastructure Industry Q1 Investment Income Guide provides in-depth analysis and recommendations for investors seeking opportunities in the infrastructure sector. The report highlights the key sectors within the industry, including utilities, telecom, transportation infrastructure, real estate, and REITs. Macquarie's fundamental views on these sectors offer valuable insights for investors looking to capitalize on yield investing. Utilities sector offers stable returns and consistent dividends, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors. Telecom sector, on the other hand, presents growth opportunities with the increasing demand for connectivity and communication services. Transportation infrastructure sector is poised for growth with the development of transportation networks globally. Real estate and REITs offer diversification and income stability through rental income and property appreciation. The report includes yield summary charts, showcasing the highest dividend yields and fastest dividend growth within the infrastructure industry. Macquarie's Alpha Model provides a quantitative approach to identifying investment opportunities based on various factors like earnings growth, valuation, and dividend yield. The Energy Infrastructure sector is also a focus in the report, highlighting the potential for growth and income generation in this area. Investors can refer to page 97 of the report for important disclosures and analyst certification, or visit Macquarie's website for further information. With a comprehensive overview of the global infrastructure industry and strategic investment recommendations, Macquarie's Q1 Investment Income Guide is a valuable resource for investors seeking to optimize their portfolio with high-yielding opportunities in the infrastructure sector.

Macquarie Research Global Infrastructure

25 January 2019 16

We continue to like power-heavy EXC and PEG, given ongoing positive earnings revisions due to

higher utility capex and proposed regulatory changes in the Midwestern power market (PJM).

Yieldcos – CWEN still top pick, but plenty of value in the space despite PCG overhang

It’s been a rough 12 months for US yieldcos. First, FERC’s decision on recovery of income taxes

by cost-of-service pipelines ended growth prospects for numerous MLPs, the only peers of US

yieldcos. Then Ontario’s new Premier decided to cancel hundreds of wind/solar projects under

development. In November, Northern California wildfires further weakened PCG’s financial

standing - the utility is an offtaker of numerous renewable and gas PPAs, including those owned by

CWEN/AY/NEP. Over the last couple of days, S&P and Moody’s downgraded PCG to junk and

until yesterday, PCG was planning to seek bankruptcy protection against up ~US$30bn in

contingent wildfire-related liabilities related to fires from October 2017 and November 2018. As

mentioned above, yesterday the utility was cleared of any wrongdoing related to the largest of the

October 2017 fires (Tubbs) and we won’t know the cause of the November 2018 fire for at least 12

months if not longer. PCG’s bankruptcy would allow the utility to reopen or reject some of its power

purchase agreements, including those for assets held by yieldcos.

We are optimistic about PCG’s eventual financial recovery, but in the meantime CWEN, with 23%

of CAFD linked to PCG PPAs, needs to slow down its growth. GIP, CWEN’s sponsor, should

support the yieldco, but issuing converts won’t work, at least for now. CWEN remains our only

Outperform for yieldcos though we recognize the company may need to talk about the dividend

increase announced on the 3Q18 call.

We liked changes to NEP’s portfolio during 2018 and the inventive convertible equity portfolio

financing. We can even live with NEP’s current valuation if not for some PCG-related overhang as

~17% of NEP’s revenues comes from power purchase agreement with the utility.

We like AY’s improved financing flexibility and growth prospects thanks to Algonquin. Yet, we

should gain certainty on AY’s ‘20+ Spanish cash flows in 2H19 and the company needs to

successfully refinance its ’19 maturities against rising credit spreads and some PCG contract risk;

~16% of AY’s 2019 CAFD is linked to PPA with PCG.

We like TERP’s financial and operational efficiencies, not to mention no financing needs in 2019 or

any real contract exposure to PCG. The renewable tariff reset in Spain should remain an overhang

through at least the summer.

Europe

The European utility index, the SX6P, closed up by 1.8% in 2018, with an improvement of the

index in the last three months of 5.3%. The utility sector has outperformed the Euro Stoxx 600

Index by 14.5% in the last three months and 13.2% in 2018, considering that the general index fell

by 14% in 2018.

There has been a material difference in performance within Europe in the last three months, but

his quarter was not driven by any particular market in Europe, with the exception of the rebound in

Italian stocks. The worst performing sub sector was the European power generators, which were

joined by some of the best performers in H1 18. Best performers in the last three months were the

European infrastructure utilities, joined by most of the Italian names. Southern Europe has seen

good performance both in Italy and in Iberia. The best performance came from Enel, up 17% and

Italgas, up 13.1%, in the last three months.

The key macro themes driving utility performance has been the lower perceived risk of rising

interest rates. This has meant regulated networks have materially outperformed power generation

expose stocks. Bond yields rose steadily from the start of 2018 and, despite the fall in yields in Q4

18, they currently are above the average of 2018. For example, the Italian bond yield is now at

2.9%, above the average of 2.68% of 2018. The regulated utilities sold off heavily from the start of

2018, but have since recovered some of their losses in Q4 18.

Following the lack of agreement on the State Budget and the government challenging fiscal deficit

caps imposed by the EU, the Italian government finally came back to its senses and presented a

State Budget within the EU deficit caps in December. Italian regulated names and municipality

owned utilities have been the best performers in the sector in the same period of time.

Europe utilities are

covered by Jose Ruiz

Macquarie Research Global Infrastructure

25 January 2019 17

Our views on European utilities are positive in general.

 We remain broadly positive on central Europe, because of the higher exposure to high carbon

prices. We see rising coal, carbon and power prices as positive for these stocks.

 We see better growth opportunities in regulated or semi-regulated names in Southern Europe at

the moment. We continue to prefer stocks like Naturgy Energy and Iberdrola, which offer

organic growth and cash return for shareholders.

The positive sentiment derived from the decline in Italian and Iberian bond yields is mixed with

major themes being the continued restructuring in the sector and rising power prices. The two

German utilities turning into four at the end of 2016 led to strong 12-month performances as

investors re-examine capital flexibility as well as improved clarity on financial performance – which

has continued as Uniper is absorbed into Fortum, and E.On bids for Innogy and swaps assets into

RWE. Additionally, rising power prices has also led to renewed optimism on generation profits.

Investor sentiment in Southern Europe is more linked to bond yields, and in this case, the decline

in the Italian bond yield has translated into a more positive investor sentiment towards Italian

utilities.

Most preferred utilities

Naturgy Energy (NTGY SM, Outperform, TP €25.5/sh, Jose Ruiz)

We believe there is value in Naturgy Energy that the market has not priced in. We believe the next

catalyst for the share price will be the execution of their share buy-back programme for €400m by

March 2019 and the cancellation of treasury shares in April’s AGM.

During 2019 Naturgy will most likely realize hidden value in its portfolio through selected asset

disposals at attractive M&A multiples. As a capital re-investment opportunity, we forecast that

Naturgy could double existing renewable capacity by 2022E (in line with its strategic plan) but triple

capacity by 2030E. We forecast that Naturgy will need another €700m in capex on top of the

current €825m growth capex in renewables within the period of the strategic plan. The main

positive is that it allows Naturgy to deliver on growth without M&A.

Naturgy Energy trades at a material discount to regulated peers. This is underlined in the discount

that is trading to fully regulated peers. Naturgy is trading at a 23-24% discount to EV/ EBITDA of

regulated peers and 30-31% discount in terms of dividend yield. We avoid P/E multiple (at a

premium) taking into account the relative under-leverage of Naturgy’s balance sheet compared to

regulated peers.

Our most recent note on Naturgy Energy can be found here (23 November 2018).

Terna (TRN IM, Outperform, TP €5.5/sh, Jose Ruiz)

Terna remains our preferred Italian utility, as we expect superior growth to offset part of the risk

from volatile bond yields in Southern Europe. Among European fully regulated utilities, we forecast

10.8% accumulated regulated asset base (RAB) growth over 2018-2021e, the fastest growing if we

exclude utilities with exposure to the US market.

We recently increased our 2019-20e EPS by 4% on average. As a consequence of this revision,

we believe Terna will move to an 8% CAGR in DPS for the period 2018-2020e (from the previous

6% CAGR for the same period) and maintain a 75% dividend payout for the period 2021-2022e.

We increased DPS by 4-6% on average and now we are above guidance and consensus forecasts

Dividend payout is the same as in previous strategic update at 71%. Among Italian regulated peers

Terna is the only utility with full visibility in cash flow generation in the next three years, given that

the gas sector will see end of the regulatory period review in Q4 19.

In terms of valuation, Terna is trading at a premium to RAB (17%), which is not reflecting the

growth potential of its RAB. RAB growth is a guarantee of cash flow growth, and we believe that

Terna can grow its DPS faster than in the previous strategic plan.

Our most recent note on Terna can be found here (18 December 2018).

Macquarie Research Global Infrastructure

25 January 2019 18

Iberdrola (IBE SM, Outperform, TP €7.6/sh, Jose Ruiz)

Iberdrola remains our key growth stock in the sector, given its >€33bn project pipeline. We see the

following catalysts for the share price to outperform in the short/medium term:

 The first catalyst relates to earnings momentum. We can say that the good earnings momentum

for power retail activities will remain in 2019 and most likely in 2020. We have talked to several

consumer associations and try to find out what I&C customers are signing today. We do not

have numbers but we have a qualitative sense of what is going on. One thing we can confirm:

there is no price war. Utilities are trying to pass-through higher cost of electricity.

 The second short-term catalyst relates to the energy transition plan in Spain as a growth

opportunity in renewables but also as a way of accelerating the closure of loss making nuclear

plants in Spain and Iberdrola reducing exposure to commodity-driven activities. We continue to

believe that Iberdrola is the candidate for re-rating, as it is still trading at integrated utility

discount. We introduced a new scenario where only three units are shut down (Iberdrola being

the biggest shareholder) and the rest becoming profitable again after removing the nuclear fuel

tax. Getting rid of this tax increases EPS 19e by 3%.

In terms of valuation, Iberdrola is trading at a 19-21% discount to EV/EBITDA of regulated peers

and 3-11% discount in terms of P/E multiple. Divided yield is in line with regulated names.

Our most recent note on Iberdrola can be found here (4 December 2018).

Southeast Asia

Malaysian Utilities. The second consecutive effective electricity tariff increase in Malaysia, has in

our view further mitigated fuel cost pass-through risks under the new government. This we believe

will continue to support a rerating of Tenaga Nasional, whose valuations remain undemanding at

13x core 19E PER and with a 4.6% dividend yield. With regulatory risks easing, we also see an

opportunity for management to begin capital management initiatives on Tenaga’s under-leveraged

balance sheet. We estimate that RM14bn (18% of market cap) of excess capital is available for

distribution, form Tenaga’s regulated business alone. FCF to equity yields meanwhile remain

above 10%.

Investor perception towards Tenaga Nasional has improved from a regulatory perspective, but

confusion around underlying post 3Q18 results and the recent tariff adjustments led us and the

street to reduce estimates by c.15%. With these adjustments largely done, we believe investors

are better placed to evaluate Tenaga going forward. Assuming the market is efficient and valuing

Tenaga’s regulated earnings (65% of 19E core profits) in line with regional peers at 18.6x, then the

non-regulated assets are currently being valued at <4x 19E PER.

We reiterate our Outperform recommendation on Tenaga Nasional, following two consecutive

effective tariff increases by the (new) Malaysian government have reduced the fuel cost pass-

through overhang that has kept Tenaga’s valuations suppressed all these years. Clarifications on

recent profit adjustments in the new regulatory period (RP2 2018-2020) have led to earnings

reductions but with the increased clarity around earnings, we believe, the market should begin to

realise how undervalued Tenaga is. By our estimates, assuming a regional weighted average PER

of 18.6x for its regulated business (65% of 19E core profits), its non-regulated business (largely

generation assets in Malaysia with associate stakes in India, Turkey and Middle East) are being at

<4x PER. Utilising a 12.2x weighted average PER multiple of generation assets in the region,

would provide for a RM17.14 valuation vs our current PER based (15x) valuation of RM15.40.

The reduced regulatory risks also pave the way for Tenaga’s management to evaluate capital

management initiatives. By our estimates, Tenaga has excess capital of RM14bn (18% of market

cap) at its regulated business alone, while group FCF yields to equity exceed 10%.

Further curtailing regulatory risks for the next tariff adjustment for 2H19, is the fact that the

surcharge for 1H19 is only effective March to June 2019 as opposed to Jan-June 2019. This has

resulted in a higher surcharge level, which reduces the next adjustment requirement but also

sends a clear signal in our view of the government’s move away from subsidies for all.

Southeast Asia utilities

are covered by Prem

Jearajasingam

Macquarie Research Global Infrastructure

25 January 2019 19

Australia

Australian Utilities. Operating in the broader utilities space continues to get harder for

companies in the face of on-going regulatory reviews and threat of regulation; at the same time

wholesale electricity prices continue to moderate. Our preference is ORG (vs. AGL) with a smaller

baseload exposure and limited regulator risk, while it also has a stronger gas portfolio in APLNG

that is benefiting from rising gas prices. From a regulated utility perspective we prefer AST. AST

continues to be positioned to benefit from the exponential growth in renewable projects and new

opportunities within non-regulated businesses.

 Unregulated utilities. Share price performance has been mixed in the last quarter, with AGL

up ~+5%, EPW down ~-15% and ORG down ~-22%, vs XUJ AUX down 4%. ORG is our

preferred stock in the sector, with a stronger gas portfolio able to provide firming capacity to

complement the growth of renewables, while its generation portfolio has a smaller baseload vs.

AGL and therefore less exposure to declining wholesale electricity prices. ORG also benefits

from strengthening oil prices through its APLNG business. During the quarter EPW announced

the sale of its US business to focus on its Australian C&I business (refer to End of the US

Experiment).

 Regulated utilities. Regulatory risk reduced during the quarter with AER releasing their final

rate of return and tax reviews reports. The broad impact on the core return for regulated assets

was already factored into our forecasts and resulted in minor revision across the sector.Share

price performance over the quarter for AST, SKI and APA was ~-5%, +1% and ~-11.7%,

respectively vs XUJ AUX down 4%. During the quarter AST release their interim results with

revenue better than expected and cost in line, however we downgraded our rating to Neutral

(from Outperform) following the rally in AST’s stock price. We also re-initiated coverage of APA

(refer to Back to Plan A) with a Neutral rating (from Outperform) following CKI’s failed bid for the

company. APA reiterated FY19 guidance. Looking forward, the growth catalyst is the

implementation of AEMO Integrated System Plan (ISP) which identifies a significant amount of

investment in transmission requirement to meet the growing demands in renewable

development. We believe that AST is better positioned (vs. SKI) to benefit from growing

demand for transmission investment. (refer to AEMO – Integrated System Plan)

Japan

There were several media reports about solar output curtailment in summer/autumn 2018 in

Japan, and we received questions on the potential concern about the stability of the dividend of

Canadian Solar Infrastructure Fund (9284 JP, OP). But based on the comments and disclosure by

related companies, we understand the impact from the output curtailment will be quite limited.

Under current regulations, utilities companies can refuse to accept solar-generated electricity to

prevent any adverse impact on supply-demand conditions, such as during the spring and autumn

(periods of low electricity demand but high solar energy supply). The figure below outlines the

various curtailment rules currently in place depending on when project plans started. Note that this

figure is only a broad overview; details differ depending on the region.

Fig 6 Overview of curtailment rules

Curtailment limits

Conditions for curtailment

30-day rule

Up to 30 days per year

per facility

For grid access applications up to

25 Jan 2015 and prior

360-hour rule

Up to 360 hours per year

per facility

For grid access applications from

26 Jan 2015

Designated utilities rule

Unlimited

For grid access applications when FIT

applications reach certain capacity thresholds

Source: METI, Macquarie Capital (USA), January 2019

The solar projects in earlier years are subject to the so-called 30-day rule, which means utilities

companies can refuse to accept electricity from these projects for up to 30 days each year without

needing to pay any compensation to project owners. CSIF has 18 solar projects in operation, and

all 18 are subject to this 30-day rule.

Australia utilities are

covered by Ian Myles

Japanese utilities are

covered by

Hiroyuki Sakaida

Macquarie Research Global Infrastructure

25 January 2019 20

The 360-hours rule is for projects where grid access applications were filed after 26 January 2015.

Power companies can curtail renewables-generated power from these projects for up to 360 hours

a year. Under the 30-day rule, a minimum of one hour of curtailment is classified as a ‘full day’.

The 360-hour rule, however, has no such component; curtailment is purely based on total hours. In

general, output tends to be curtailed more at projects under the 360-hour rule compared to projects

operating under the 30-day rule.

The designated utilities rule allows for indefinite curtailment of renewables-generated electricity

from projects that went into operation in areas with a certain level of solar power capacity. There

are six designed utilities: Hokkaido Electric, Tohoku Electric, Hokuriku Electric, Chugoku Electric,

Shikoku Electric and Kyushu Electric.

Solar energy developer/operator Renovo (9519 JP, NR) said at its earnings call in last October,

that it had run simulations for projects subject to indefinite curtailment that suggested total

curtailment over 20 years would only see an impact of around 4-5% of total capacity.

We think the impact on CSIF would be even smaller, since its projects are all operating under the

30-day rule, which should mean fewer days of output curtailment. In the fiscal period 12/18 (six

months ending December 2018), according to CSIF disclosure, the negative impact on its revenue

from the curtailment was only 0.20%.

Philippines

Power: Turning constructive on Aboitiz Power. We recently upgraded Aboitiz Power (AP PM)

to an Outperform (TP: P38.00) on our view that valuations have become less demanding and

earnings growth is improving.

 Valuations have become attractive. After share price weakness in the past year, AP’s

valuations are now less demanding – 2019E PE of ~10x, equivalent to ~0.3SD below historical

PE mean and below PH peer average of ~16x despite faster earnings growth of 9% (vs PH peer

average of 2%; 2019E PBV of 1.9x or 0.8SD below historical PBV mean; 2018E yield of 4.4% -

above PH peer average of 3.9% and PH market’s 1.6%.

 Accelerating earnings growth mainly driven by new capacity. We expect AP to post faster

earnings growth of 9.2% in 2019E (vs flattish 2018E) mainly driven by its new power plant

projects, most notably Unit 1 (668MW) of the Dinginin coal plant (40% stake), 300MW Therma

Visayas coal plant (80% stake) and FY contribution of the 68MW Manolo Fortich hydro plant

(100%, started operations in 2H18). We expect AP’s attributable generation capacity to expand

~17% YoY in 2019E (~7% in 2020E).

 Extensive and diversified portfolio of assets. The power generation sector faces intense

competition given excess power supply in the country. While not immune to this risk, we think

AP’s diversified portfolio of assets enable it to better compete. AP is able to address 24-hour

energy demand (peaking via its oil and hydro assets, intermediate via its hydro plant, and

baseload via its coal and geothermal facilities). Company’s extensive and diversified portfolio

also give AP flexibility in terms of securing off-take contracts and pricing.

Fig 7 Earnings growth forecast for AP

Fig 8 Attributable generation capacity

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, January 2019

10%

15%

-1%

10%

-2%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E

Recurring net profit - LHS YoY growth - RHS

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E

Attributable generation capacity (MW) YoY growth

Philippine utilities are

covered by

Karisa Magpayo

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