2050年战术地面战场的信息技术展望：工作坊报告

2050

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"Visualizing the Tactical Ground Battlefield in the Year 2050" 是一份由美国陆军研究实验室（ARL）/陆军研究办公室（ARO）委托，由马里兰大学主办的研讨会的工作报告。这份报告关注的是2050年左右，信息科技对战术地面战的影响。研讨会于2015年3月10日至11日在马里兰州College Park的Marriott酒店及会议中心举行，汇聚了来自不同领域的知识领袖，讨论主题包括“未来网络战”和“信息技术与地面作战”。报告由Alexander Kott、David Alberts、Amy Zalman、Paulo Shakarian、Fernando Maymi、Cliff Wang和Gang Qu等专家撰写，并在2015年6月发布。报告中强调，其内容不应当被视为官方的美国陆军立场，除非在其他授权文档中有明确指定。引用制造商或商标并不意味着官方的背书或批准使用。该研讨会的目标是探讨21世纪中叶的战场环境，特别是如何利用可视化技术来提升地面防务的安全性和效率。这可能涉及到高级的情报收集、分析和传播，以及如何通过先进的信息技术，如人工智能、大数据分析、物联网、网络安全和增强现实等，来改变战场态势感知和决策制定。报告可能涵盖了以下几个关键知识点： 1. **信息科技的未来发展**：预测到2050年，信息科技将如何进步，包括网络、传感器、通信技术和数据处理能力的提升，这些将如何塑造战场环境。 2. **战术地面战争的变化**：随着信息科技的发展，传统的地面战争可能会发生哪些变化，例如战斗方式、指挥控制结构、士兵装备以及防御策略。 3. **网络战的重要性**：未来的战争可能会更多地依赖于网络空间的攻防，因此需要研究如何保护战场网络免受攻击，同时利用网络来获取优势。 4. **数据与决策支持**：如何利用大数据和分析工具来实时分析战场情况，为决策者提供更准确、更快速的信息支持。 5. **人工智能与自动化**：人工智能在战场中的应用，比如自主无人系统、目标识别和威胁预警，以及它们如何改变战斗任务的执行方式。 6. **士兵训练与装备**：未来的士兵可能需要具备哪些新的技能，以及如何利用新的科技装备他们，以适应这种信息化的战争环境。 7. **战场可视化**：如何通过可视化技术来提高战场理解和指挥效能，包括三维建模、虚拟现实和增强现实的应用。 8. **政策与法规**：随着技术的发展，可能需要建立新的军事政策和法规，以确保科技的合法和道德使用。这份报告对于理解未来战争形态的演变，以及军事战略和技术发展的方向具有重要意义，为军事规划者、研究人员和政策制定者提供了宝贵的洞察。

For the purposes of this workshop, the term “information technologies” was

interpreted in its broadest sense. Included in this term is the wide range of

information-related and -enabled capabilities that are involved in obtaining,

collecting, organizing, fusing, storing, and distributing relevant information as well

as the capabilities associated with command and control (C2) functions and

processes including reasoning, inference, planning, decision making, and

collaborating (between humans and between humans and “smart” and/or

autonomous systems). Finally, this term includes the capabilities that could be used

to deny, deceive, disrupt, degrade, and compromise adversary information and

information-related processes (e.g., cyber and electronic warfare).

A few disclaimers are in order here. First, not every author of the report or

participant of the workshop agrees with every (or any) opinion presented in the

workshop’s report. Second, all statements of fact or opinion presented in this report

are those of the workshop participants and do not reflect positions or views of their

employers or any organizations with which they are affiliated.

1.1 Workshop Scope and Assumptions

The scope of this workshop was limited to tactical ground warfighting circa 2050.

The battlefield was assumed to be on the order of 100 km by 100 km and include a

population center with significant numbers of civilians present. The unnamed

combatants were assumed to be technologically sophisticated. To avoid implicit

and potentially constraining assumptions about how technology would be

employed (constraining rules of engagement), participants were asked not to

assume that one of the adversaries was the United States. Besides engaging in

“conventional” warfare, the opponents could be assumed to be capable of

employing irregular warfare.

In order to avoid potential diversions, keep workshop discussions unclassified, and

make the conclusions accessible to the widest audience, the following topics were

not included in the scope of this workshop: current programs, requirements, policy,

budget, socio-cultural and geopolitical issues, weapons of mass destruction

(WMDs), inherently naval or airspace issues, and anything that was not publically

releasable.

1.2 Workshop Orientation

To assist workshop participants in their “visioneering” efforts, they were presented

with the following “time travel” scenario to consider.

“Imagine that you were asleep from 2015 until 2050. Upon awaking

you found yourself in the middle of an on-going battle. What do you

see? How different is it from what you might have seen in 2015?”

To help participants relate to a forward leap of 35 years, they were asked to think

about fellow time traveler, one who fell asleep in 1881 to awaken into the middle

of World War I in 1916 and another who fell asleep in 1907 to awaken in 1942

during World War II.

The first traveler would have awakened to a number of technological advances that

reshaped the nature of ground warfare. These included the machine gun and long-

range indirect fire artillery, the latter being the biggest killer of WW1. They would

have also seen for the first time airplanes used for reconnaissance; field phones

used for artillery spotting and control; trench formations for protection; and the

dawning of the era of tanks, which would eventually transform ground warfare.

However, at least half of what the time traveler observed would have been familiar.

Not all that was new, though, involved new equipment. Advances in concepts and

methods dramatically improve warfighting capability as well by using assets in

different ways. For example, indirect fire used the same piece of equipment that

was previously only used for direct fire.

Participants were encouraged not only to think about specific technological

developments, but also of capabilities that might be developed without regard to its

enabling technology. For example, in 1880, it would have been difficult to envision

exactly what technological advances would enable a flying apparatus, but not so

difficult to imagine such objects in action.

1.3 Participant Presentations

After the orientation session, a set of presentations were provided by participants.

The following presentations were given to stimulate discussion (see the Appendix

for the slides for a number of these presentations):

• Unleashing the Power of Networking: Critical Research (David Alberts)

• Defining the Environment for Ground War in 2050 (JC Ledé)

• Information Fusion in 2050 (Ajay Divakaran, Behjat Siddiquie)

• Some “Random” Thoughts: Information Technologies and Ground

Warfighting (Jason Li)

• Future War (Paulo Shakarian)

• A Few Thoughts (Greg Shannon)

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