赞比亚极端气候事件研究：2013年干旱的社会经济影响
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"Extreme events and impact assessment: social and economic impacts of drought in Zambia (2013年)"
这篇论文探讨了极端气候事件，特别是洪水和干旱对赞比亚社会经济活动的影响。通过对1960年至2000年间40年的完整日降雨量数据进行分析，研究方法是将这些数据分为五个类别：第一类（0-0.5mm）、第二类（0.5-5mm）、第三类（5-10mm）、第四类（10-25mm）和第五类（>25mm）。第一类代表干燥或几乎干燥的日子，而第二至第五类则表示不同程度的湿润天气，其中第五类指的是高强度降雨日。
论文的主要目的是通过数据分析揭示极端天气事件对赞比亚的社会层面和经济层面的具体影响。干旱作为一种极端气候现象，对农业、水资源供应、健康、教育以及整体经济发展都有着深远的影响。在赞比亚，农业是经济的重要支柱，干旱可能导致农作物减产，影响粮食安全，进一步加剧贫困问题。此外，水资源短缺可能影响到工业生产和居民生活，导致社会不稳定。
在社会层面，干旱可能导致大规模的人口流动，人们为了寻找食物和水而迁徙，这可能增加社区之间的冲突并增加社会服务的压力。同时，干旱也可能对儿童的教育产生负面影响，因为家庭可能会让孩子们去帮助寻找水源，而不是去上学。
在经济层面，干旱对赞比亚的经济增长有显著抑制作用。除了农业受损，干旱还可能影响电力供应，因为该国的部分电力来自水力发电，河流水量减少会降低发电能力。这将进一步影响工业生产和日常生活，增加国家的经济负担。
此外，论文可能还分析了应对干旱的政策和适应策略，包括建立早期预警系统、水资源管理改进、农业多样化和推广节水技术等。这些措施旨在提高社会对极端气候事件的抵御能力，减少其对经济的负面影响，并促进可持续发展。
这篇论文通过详实的数据和分析，为理解和应对赞比亚及其他类似地区干旱带来的社会经济挑战提供了重要的科学依据，对于制定应对气候变化的政策具有重要意义。
宝鸡文理学院学报(自然科学版)
，第
33
卷，第
1
期，第
51-60
页，
2013
年
3
月
Journal of
Baoji
University
of
Arts
and
Sciences CNatural Science) ,
Vo
l.
33
,
No.
1,
pp.
51-60
, Mar.
2013
DOI:
CNKI:61
一
1290/N.20121210.1133.002
http://www.cnki.net/kcms/detai1/6
1.
1290.N.20121210.1133.
002.
html
Extreme
events
and
impact
assessment:
social
and
economic
impacts
of
drought
in
Zambia
Sakala
Enock
1
•
Suman
J
ain
2
O. Department
of
Geography
and
Environmental
Studies.
School
of
Natura\
Sciences
,
University
of
Zambia
,
Lusaka
,
Zambia;
2.
Department
of
Mathematics
and
Statistics ,
Schoo\
of
Natural
Sciences
, University
of
Zambia
,
Lusaka
,
Zambia)
Abstract:
Objective-To
investigate
the
effects
of
extreme
events
such
as
floods
and
droughts
on
social
and
economic
activities
in
Zambia.
Methods
一
The
annual
daily
rainfall
for
stations.
whiçh
have
complete
40
years
0960
~
2000)
time
series
of
daily
rainfall.
is
assigned
to
one
of
the
five
classes:
class
1
(O~O.
5
mm).
class
2
(0.
5~5
mm).
class
3
(5~10
mm).
class
4
(1
0~25
mm)
and
class
5
(>25
mm).
Class
1
refers
to
dry
days
or
nearly
dry
days
where
as
classes
2
to
5
refer
to
wet
days.
Class
5
refers
to
high
intensity
rainfall
days.
The
daily
rainfall
for
the
three
Agro-Ecologicalzones
is
cornputed
by
averaging
the
daily
rainfall
of
all
the
meteorological
stations
falling
in
each
zone.
Simple
linear
regression
is
performed
to
establish
trends
for
the
variables
namely
(i)
annual
number
of
days
in
each
of
classes
frorn
two
to.
five.
(ij)
annual
number
of
wet
days
and
(i
i
i)
annual
rainfall
amount.
for
individual
stations
as
well
as
for
the
three
eco-climate
zones.
The
student'
s t
-tests
are
carried
out
to
determine
the
significance
of
trends.
The
level
of
significance
used
in
the
trend
analysis
is
set
to
O.
10.
Results
一
This
paper
dwells
on
the
drought
trend
in
Zambia
and
its
social
and
economic
ramifications
as
it
is
exposed
to
the
crises.
stress
and
shocks
arising
from
the
fluctuating
weather
conditions.
The
food
system
in
Zambia
which
has
developed
since
the
colonial
period
and
has
persisted
even
after
the
attain
ment
of
political
independence
in
1964
is
increasingly
becoming
vulnerable
to
environmental
shocks
be-
cause
of
the
climate
change
and
variability
as
maize
the
main
staple
food
is
more
susceptible
to
extrerne
weather
events
as
shown
in
this
analysis
of
drought
events.
Trends
for
annual
number
of
days
in
clas-
ses
three
and
four
for
all
analyzed
data
are
found
to
be
negative
indicating
that
days
with
rainfall
inten-
sity
of
5~25
mm
are
decreasing
at
each
of
analyzed
individual
station
and
also
in
the
three
agro-ecolog
ical
zones.
Annual
numbers
of
days
of
low
intensity
rainfall
(0.
5
~
10
mm)
in
zone
1
are
increasing
pointing
drier
conditions.
Annual
number
of
days
of
high
intensity
rainfall
(>25
mm)
are
increasing
in
zones
2
and
3
indicating
flooding conditions.
Conclusion-Results
have
shown
that
drought
.can
have
dramatic
deleterious
effects
on
a
country'
s
socioeconomic.
ecological
as
well
as
having
some
political
ramifications
as
it
affects
stable
flow
of
finances
to
government
projects.
For
a
small
and
intermediate
e
CLC
number:
P467
Document
code:
A
Article
ID:
1007-126
1(
2013)01-0051-10
曾
Received
date:
2012-10-18
,
Modification
date:
2012-11-25
,
Web
publication
time:
2012-12-1011:33.
Biograpy:
Sakala
Enock0967-) ,
male
,
born
in
Lusaka
,
Zambia.
Lecturer
CPhD)
,
research
interests
in
environmental
degradation
due
to
human
activites:
mining
,
agriculture
, industryetc.
Email:
Enoch2000@gmai
l.
com
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