中国金融科技崛起：腾讯、蚂蚁等引领行业创新

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"《高盛-中国金融科技的崛起》行业报告显示，随着科技巨头如腾讯、蚂蚁金服、京东金融和平安集团等在中国金融科技领域的蓬勃发展，这些创新者正深刻改变着中国的消费支付、借贷和投资模式。它们通过智能手机的便捷应用，提供了从快速支付到在线储蓄产品和贷款的一站式金融服务，显著满足了消费者日益增长的金融需求，传统银行业面临着前所未有的竞争压力。报告指出，由于高盛在涉及其研究报告的公司中开展业务，投资者需意识到可能存在的利益冲突，这可能会影响报告的客观性。因此，在做出投资决策时，这份报告应被视为众多因素中的一个。为了获取更全面的信息，投资者应参考附录中的披露信息，或访问高盛官方网站www.gs.com/research/hedge.html，了解关于注册分析师和美国 FINRA 认证的相关声明。值得注意的是，非美国附属公司的分析师在美国并不被注册或认定为具备研究分析师资格。作为全球领先的金融机构，高盛集团于2017年8月7日发布这份研究报告，它标志着中国金融科技行业的崭新阶段，即所谓的“中国金融科技崛起”。在该系列的第一篇中，焦点主要集中在这一新兴市场的独特机遇和技术创新如何驱动巨大的盈利潜力。这些金融科技企业不仅重塑了金融服务的面貌，也为投资者打开了一个全新的投资领域，对于关注中国经济发展和科技革新的人来说，这是一个不容忽视的重要趋势。"

August 7, 2017



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 13

The integration mind set

Did you know? In these companies’ 2016 annual reports....

 95 times: Alibaba mentioned the word ‘Ecosystem’

 35 times: Ping An mentioned the word ‘Integrated finance/financial’, ‘Ecosystem’, or ‘One-stop’

 13 times: Tencent mentioned the word ‘Ecosystem’, or ‘”Connection” strategy’, or

‘Connection/connected’*

 13 times: JD mentioned the word ‘One-stop’ or ‘Comprehensive’*

 10 times: Baidu mentioned the word ‘Ecosystem’

 22 times: ICBC mentioned the word ‘Internet’ or ‘FinTech’*

Note*: Strategy product-related context only, excluding accounting/legal/technical terms

Although the FinTech sector had seen significant growth in the past few years, the combined market share of today is

still a fraction of China’s colossal financial system, and the regulators are still generally pro-growth – but we believe the

final form of the FinTech ecosystem will likely be very different from the current form we observe today. We believe it’s

likely the government, through many forms including regulatory bodies, will continue to play a big role in the future. It

is crucial for us to watch the regulatory direction from here.

Exhibit 8: Total payment value (TPV) of third-party

payment firms is 13% of that of bank card transactions.

Third-party payment TPV as % of bank card in China

Exhibit 9: Internet lending grew exponentially since

2013, but small compared to the total social financing.

Internet lending as % of total social financing in China

Source: PBOC, WIND, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Source: PBOC, WIND, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

2013 2014 2015 2016

TPV of 3rd-party payment companies as % of bank

card transactions in China (Rmb trn)

TPV of 3rd-

party payment

companies

As % of

TPV of

bank card

2.4%

5.5%

7.4%

13.4%

CAGR =

115%

107

497

1,078

2013 2014 2015 2016

Internet lending as % of total social financing* by loan

balance outstanding (Rmb bn)

Loan balance of

internet lending

CAGR =

230%

*Total social financing excluding bonds and equities

As % of

TSF

0.03%

0.10%

0.42% 0.79%

Future of Finance: The Rise of China FinTech

August 7, 2017



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 14

Key shaping trends #2: Regulation

Regulation plays a vital role in determining the future evolution. Over the years, the

FinTech regulatory environment has shifted from the initial free hand to promote

growth, to a more balanced approach. These regulatory trends will be detailed in

each of our Rise of China FinTech reports. We expect it to continue to evolve,

especially with private capital’s uncharacteristically high participation in

infrastructure build-out, and the nascent nature of the industry.

The regulatory environment has supported innovation

, especially in 2013-2015. Due to

historical protection and strict regulation, traditional financial institutions (especially banks)

have mainly served state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and are moving slowly with a

continuing structural mismatch between supply and demand. This generates a relatively

uncompetitive environment, with consumers and small businesses’ financial needs largely

underpenetrated. Higher regulatory costs and lack of infrastructure (such as personal credit

scoring systems) also hindered banks from entering the space. As China’s economy enters

the ‘new normal’, a largely investment-and-SOE-led economy is no longer sustainable, and

consumer spending and SME growth are becoming more pivotal drivers. With that macro

backdrop, the government and regulators have explicitly expressed support for financial

innovation and internet finance since 2013, and imposed far less regulatory constraints vs

banks until recently.

Exhibit 10: The regulatory environment has in general supported innovation, but started to get more sophisticated in

risk management.

Quotes on internet finance from the Report on the Work of the Government by Premier Li Keqiang

Source: State Council of the PRC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

The tightening trend of the regulatory environment will increase regulatory costs,

although overall the regulatory environment is still supportive. Initially free from regulatory

oversights, the FinTech industry boomed and with the rapid growth came fraud and

dangerous funding models, especially in the internet lending space. As risks events started

to occur, Chinese regulators started to put more emphasis on market order, healthy

development, and risk management. In a series of announcements from Jun 2015 to Oct

...

encourage

the

healthy development

of e-commerce, industrial networks, and

Internet banking, and to guide Internet-based companies to increase their presence in the

international market...

...channel

great energy

into developing

inclusive finance

...

2015

...be

fully alert

to the

buildup of risks

, including risks related to non-performing

assets, bond defaults, shadow banking, and Internet finance....

...

encourage large and medium commercial banks

to establish inclusive finance

departments...

2017

...work to see that Internet finance

develops in line with regulations

...

...make a

major push

to develop inclusive and green finance...

2016

Future of Finance: The Rise of China FinTech

August 7, 2017



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 15

2016, the government laid out a comprehensive overarching framework, defining who and

how they will regulate each business verticals within the ‘internet finance’ industry, putting

more checks and balances on FinTech companies’ business practices, especially on

compliance, funding models, as well as consumer protection. On May 15, 2017, the central

bank introduced a new FinTech committee, who will be responsible for coordinating

between different financial regulators and industry participants. Regulators are constantly

reviewing and revising the existing rules, and in some cases creating opportunities for

incumbents. For instance, a recent CBRC regulation update suspended internet lending

companies access to the student loan market, but instead encouraged banks to provide

such services, a market that banks were previously not allowed to enter.

The unique closed-loop ecosystems of the big players also call for more sophisticated

regulatory oversight and greater efforts in ensuring transparency. Indeed, it is already

possible for the few big players to create credit within their closed ecosystem, and

completely outside of the central banks’ system. Thus, there is an increasing need for

monitoring. An important milestone will be the establishment of the centralized clearing

house for all third-party payments, Wanglian, in March 2017 – which is still in test-run stage

and expected to clear all third-party payments in the long run. This will wend the current

arrangements where most third-party players connect to each bank directly and effectively

circumvent regulator oversights on transaction natures and fund flows.

We do not believe these measures are targeted to suppress innovation, but we do believe

this would add speed bumps and induce significant business model changes for some

players. We believe that the regulatory costs for FinTech companies will increase

significantly over the next few years, thereby reducing return on capital to a more

normalized level. Part of the lower return on capital should be compensated by the

increase of the revenue pool. Scale will become more important in that context - and we

might see waves of consolidations, especially within the payment and lending space.

Exhibit 11: Regulators have laid out and keep updating their framework for regulating the “internet finance” industry

Overview of the regulations on internet finance in China

Source: PBOC, CBRC, CIRC, CSRC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

PBOC: People's Bank of China

CBRC: China Banking Regulatory Commission CIRC: China Insurance Regulatory Commission CSRC: China Securities Regulatory Commission

Guidance on promoting healthy development of Internet Finance (Jul 2015)

Definition of scope of coverage: Financial institutions and internet companies, providing capital intermediation, payment, and investment services, and

related-information intermediary services.

Government approach: Promote building of basic infrastructures by industry participants, encourage technology adoption and innovation, broaden financing

Regulation: Aug 16

Key approaches:

1. Emphasis on

platform function;

2. Requirement to use

banks as custodian of

funds;

3. Cap loan size;

4. 13 non-compliant

activities.

Regulation: Aug 15

Key approaches:

1. Brought into CSRC

supervision;

2. Define authorized

participants and

licensing criteria.

Regulation: Oct 16

Key approaches:

1. Customer protection

by centralized custody

of clients' reserve;

2. Risk management

by establishing

Wanglian, a centralized

clearing house for

third-party payment.

Regulation: Mar 16

Key approaches:

1. Broaden financing

channel;

2. Encourage the use

of interbank market for

liquidity;

3. Encourage asset

securitization.

Regulation: July 15

Key approaches:

1. Relax geographic

restrictions for certain

products;

2. Define applicable

products;

3. Define non-

compliant activities and

actions.

Regulation: Jul 16

Key approaches:

1. Separation of funds

with payment activities;

2. Increase scrutiny on

risk and return

disclosure.

Internet lending Crowdfunding Internet payment

Online consumer

finance

Online insurance

Online mutual fund

distribution

CBRC CSRC PBOC CBRC CIRC CSRC

Establishment of

FinTech Committee

by PBOC (May 2017) -to strengthen FinTech research planning and to act as an

overall coordinator

RegTech

: active adoption of big data, AI, cloud computing and other technology to improve cross-industry/ cross-market risk identification / prevention.

Future of Finance: The Rise of China FinTech

August 7, 2017



Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 16

Private capital now has a seat at the table, and technology is the key enabler

Although the regulatory shifts might introduce changes to some disruptors’ business

models, we note that private capital has uncharacteristically high participation in the

FinTech infrastructure ownership, and it will therefore likely have a bigger voice in

influencing future policy directions. Most of China’s existing basic infrastructures (bridges

and roads/electricity grids), regardless of industries, were built and owned by SOEs or

government agencies, and hence eventually the government. But we point out that a few

big players in the FinTech industry have not only built a sizeable user base for the next

generation of financial infrastructure, but also started to own them. Indeed, some

innovators have come a long way making themselves more indispensable with a real

technological advantage. We believe this could have implications on future industry

structure/directions, technological standards as well as customer ownerships.

One of these early examples is Wanglian, China’s newly established centralized clearing

network for all third-party payments. The largest shareholders besides the Central Bank

PBOC and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) are Ant Financial (9.61%)

and Tencent (9.61%). This is in stark contrast with China’s only card network UnionPay,

which was built and still owned by PBOC and SOE Banks, and hence eventually the

government.

Private participation in infrastructure of this scale is almost unprecedented in other

industries in China. We think this is because – in order to regulate in the digital age – the

regulators need to work closely with disruptors (who are often private companies instead

of SOEs), as that is where the technology know-how and processing power lies.

We emphasize that regulating the FinTech industry is a dynamic balancing act and we

might see regulations constantly evolving through trial and error. Owing to the nascent

nature of the business model and the public-private collaboration, it would be difficult to

surmise the policy directions. Thus, we believe it is important to track the development of

how a few early initiatives evolves (such as the payment clearing house), as it could have

deep implications for regulating the rest of the FinTech industry.

Exhibit 12: Private companies are playing a bigger role in China’s FinTech infrastructure for the first time.

Alipay and Tenpay are the largest shareholders of China’s only clearing house for all online payments, besides PBOC and SAFE.

This compares to China’s only card network, UnionPay, built and owned by PBOC and SOE banks. Data as of 2017.

Source: Company data, Sina, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

China UnionPay Wanglian (sole clearing house for all online payment)

152 45

2.93 2

25% by 6 main shareholders:

China Banknote Printing and Minting (4.86%)

China Construction Bank (4.78%) China National Clearing Center (12%)

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (3.84%) Wutongshu Investment Platform (10%)

Agricultural Bank of China (3.84%) Shanghai Clearing House (3%)

Bank of China (3.84%) Shanghai Gold Exchange (3%)

Bank of Communications (3.84%)

China Banknote Printing and Minting (3%)

National Association of Financial Market Institutional

Investors (3%)

Joint-stock commercial banks such as: 63% by 38 non-bank payment companies such as:

China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development

Bank, Postal Saving Bank of China, China CITIC Bank,

China Guangfa Bank, Everbright Bank, Ping An Bank,

Hua Xia Bank, Industrial Bank, Minsheng Bank, etc.

Alipay (9.61%)

Tenpay (9.61%)

JD Pay (4.71%)

35 other payment companies (<3% each)

Municipal commercial banks, credit cooperatives and non-

bank institutions

Payment and Clearing Association of China (3%,

representing other small & medium-sized payment

companies)

34% by 6 national institutions, including affiliates of

PBOC and State Administration of Foreign Exchange

Number of shareholders

Capital (Rmb bn)

Main shareholders

Future of Finance: The Rise of China FinTech

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