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亚太地区金融行业：泰国金融业"合理价格增长"投资

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JP Morgan在亚太地区金融行业中进行了关于泰国金融业的投资研究，提出了“以合理价格增长”投资的经典理念。该研究报告对泰国银行业进行了详细分析，并指出该行业具有投资潜力。报告列出了相关分析师的联系方式，并指出了重要的披露信息。总之，JP Morgan 关于泰国金融业的研究报告旨在指导投资者进行合理的投资，对亚太地区金融市场的发展具有重要意义。

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Asia Pacific

Equity Research

13 March 2019

Harsh Wardhan Modi

(65) 6882-2450

harsh.w.modi@jpmorgan.com

Figure 30: TH: BoP (% of GDP)

Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan.

Figure 31: TH: Current account (% of GDP)

Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan.

Figure 32: TH: Loan growth of commercial banks

Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan.

-8%

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Loan Growth Corporate Household

TH has persistent BoP surplus in

the last 2 decades…

…and current account surplus

Loan growth for commercial

banks has slowed to 3% vs. 9% a

year ago

Asia Pacific

Equity Research

13 March 2019

Harsh Wardhan Modi

(65) 6882-2450

harsh.w.modi@jpmorgan.com

Figure 33: TH: LDR

Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan. Note: includes loans and deposits of commercial banks only.

Figure 34: TH: Credit to deposit ratio (ex-interbank)

Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan. Note: includes credit and deposits of commercial banks, excluding interbank. Includes bills of exchange

funding

Figure 35: TH: CASA ratio

Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan. Note: for deposits of commercial banks

89%

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TH banks’ LDR has remained

relatively stable

CASA ratio for TH banks has

improved from 51% in 2013 to

63%

Asia Pacific

Equity Research

13 March 2019

Harsh Wardhan Modi

(65) 6882-2450

harsh.w.modi@jpmorgan.com

Figure 36: TH: E/A and Payout Ratio

Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan. Note: Based on JPM coverage universe.

Figure 37: Market Cap of Thai banks and financial companies (USD bn)

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.

Figure 38: Market share of loans and deposits for Big 4 Thai banks

Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan. Note: based on commercial banks.

20%

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

E/A Payout (RHS)

14.6

14.2

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8.4

3.1

3.0

2.5

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.4

0.7

KBANK SCB BBL BAY KTB Bank 1 MTC KTC TISCO Finco 1 SAWADAEONS THANI

68%

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80%

Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

Loans Deposits

Smaller financial companies and

banks provide M&A opportunity

– either consolidation or

acquisition

Asia Pacific

Equity Research

13 March 2019

Harsh Wardhan Modi

(65) 6882-2450

harsh.w.modi@jpmorgan.com

What can go right?

What could go right? Fiscal debt as % of GDP is relatively low at 42%. A policy

shift to use this leeway could be a game changer. This low debt levels has led to

quite low Thailand sovereign yields. A pick-up in trade (50% exports/GDP) can lead

to cyclical revival in capex. FRS9 is accelerating recognition, providing cyclical

clean slate for next year. A sharp increase in payout will address classic

principal/agent trade-off, and reflect in lower cost of equity. Rate transmission has

been erratic in last 5Y, which if it changes, can lead to CASA benefits flowing

through. Finally, rotation from domestic energy complex poses upside risks.

Figure

: 10yr gov’t bond yield: TH vs. US

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan

Figure

: Spread between TH & US

gov’t bond yield (bps)

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan

Fiscal room creates upside risk

Thailand’s gov’t debt to GDP is relatively low among AxJ peers at 42% of GDP.

This allows the gov’t fiscal room to boost domestic demand. In the short term, ahead

of the election this would be leveraged for fiscal transfers which would support

consumption. But longer term, focusing on infrastructure development is crucial.

Infrastructure investment has the dual benefit creating conditions for crowding in

private FAI/FDI and resulting in productivity growth. The latter is crucial to boost

potential GDP growth (3.5%) amidst an aging population.

Figure 41: Gov't debt to GDP across AxJ

Source: National Sources, BIS, J.P. Morgan.

10%

10Y TH Gov't bond (%) 10Y US Trsy (%)

-200

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Spread(TH gov't-US trsy, bps)

10%

20%

30%

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50%

60%

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80%

IN CH MA VT TH KR TW PH ID

TH debt to GDP at 41.6% is

relatively low

Asia Pacific

Equity Research

13 March 2019

Harsh Wardhan Modi

(65) 6882-2450

harsh.w.modi@jpmorgan.com

Figure 42: Gov't debt to GDP vs. GDP per capita

Source: BIS, J.P. Morgan.

Figure 43: Thailand: Population above 65 (%)

Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan

25%

35%

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65%

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1000 10000 100000

Fiscal Debt / GDP

GDP/Cap (US$, log 10 based)

11%

10%

12%

Population above 65 (%, RHS)

FAI to boost productivity growth

is important amidst ageing

population

剩余169页未读，继续阅读

JP 摩根-亚太地区-金融业-台湾金融业行业策略-4-60页.pdf

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亚太地区金融行业：泰国金融业"合理价格增长"投资

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[arthas@36228]$ trace jp.co.srm.util.SrmToolUtil * -E "{params, args}" Affect(class count: 0 , method count: 0) cost in 119 ms, listenerId: 14 Enhance error! exception: java.util.regex.PatternSyntaxException: Dangling meta character '*' near index 0

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怎么用curl -k -v -H "Content-Type: application/x-www-form-urlencoded" -u fddf1a88-26ca-4dda-b76c-b2e0c2dc90e2:-shxpC85n9gKzKN2bX3Z8qlWlbvTw6t0vhdU2_ZyK0Y -d "grant_type=client_credentials" -X POST https://login.mypurecloud.jp/oauth/token 执行后获得的token在下一个命令中使用

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