1. They originate from non-telecom players, with computing and Internet platform DNA.
2. They are monetised indirectly. Instead of software license sales, they platform vendors
profit by selling high-margin devices, in the case of Apple, or enhancing Google’s on-line
advertising business, in the case of Android.
2. They are driven by companies able to sustain investments of billions of dollars in order to
develop an OS, create engaging online services and drive an application ecosystem
connectingusers and developers.
Both Android and iOS are controlled by single companies. They have come to dominate over the many
telecoms industry attempts at creating a standardised and commoditized platform such as LiMo, JCP,
OMTP, Symbian Foundation, MeeGo and recently Tizen. The proponents of these initiatives have all
failed to fully comprehend the economics of application-led platforms, and to move fast enough (at
software speeds) to compete with Internet-borne players.
There isn’t and won’t be a single winner in the smartphone race. Both iOS and Android platforms
reached a critical mass of hundreds of millions of users. Their long-term positions are secured by
strong network effects between users and developers, making it almost impossible to displace them.
The jury is still out on whether there is a place for a third platform player, and whether Microsoft, with
the help of Nokia, will be able to wrestle the third position away from Blackberry.
The rising star of HTML5
With Apple and Google gaining power, the industry is looking for alternatives. For many, the emerging
HTML5 standard holds the promise to break the app distribution silos of iOS and Android platforms.
HTML5 is a set of draft standards that, along with the recently launched CCS3 and ever-faster, more
efficient JavaScript engines, has the potential to greatly increase the functionality of web apps, while at
the same time requiring fewer lines of code. A subset of the emerging HTML5 standard is already
supported by many browsers, including the WebKit-based browsers distributed with Apple iOS and
Google Android platforms.
Mobile operators hope that as web apps become more powerful, they will replace “native” applications
and reinstate operator portals as the distribution channels ahead of native app stores. Facebook is
eyeing HTML as a technology that can help dis-intermediate app stores as content distribution silos,
reducing the power of Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android platforms. App developers, meanwhile, look at
HTML5 as a technology that will bridge incompatible software platforms, reduce the effort needed to
go cross platform.
In reality, however, HTML5 is still far from becoming a replacement for native applications. Multiple
technical gaps still exist, such as incompatibilities between different web browsers, poor performance
on mobile devices and a lack of 3D graphics. More importantly, HTML5 lacks the properties of a
complete application platform. The HTML5 specification merely defines programming interfaces for
web run-times (i.e., “browsers”). HTML5 does not address key areas an application platform would
need to challenge iOS and Android, namely application discovery, distribution, monetisation and
retailing.