挪威降水气候：COST733模型下大气环流类型分析与验证

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本研究论文深入探讨了挪威降水分布中的大气环流类型分类，具体基于欧盟Cost733项目（COST733CAT）的数据集。Cost733评估是通过对挪威气象状况的客观分析来进行的，主要采用了T模态倾斜旋转主分量等先进的统计方法来识别和描述不同气候类型的降水特征。论文的核心目标是对COST733CAT中的73种大气环流类型分类进行气候学上的验证，以检验其在解释挪威降水模式方面的有效性。作者Ole Einar Tveito来自挪威气象研究所，他针对挪威各地四个具有代表性的降水站，对这些站点上每种环流类型的降水频率进行了详尽的统计分析。统计内容包括了降水发生的概率以及用于描述各类型降水分布的统计参数，如均值、方差等，这些都是评估环流类型分类性能的关键指标。研究的重点放在了那些具有9种类型的大气环流分类上，目的是确定它们在不同降水区域内的表现，比如雨量多少、降水模式的季节性变化等。通过比较实际观测数据与预测模型的吻合度，作者旨在评估这些环流类型分类在预报挪威降水方面是否准确可靠。这篇论文提供了一个重要的气候学验证框架，不仅对于理解挪威的降水模式有深远影响，也为其他地区类似气候类型分析提供了参考依据。它强调了通过科学的统计方法和技术在理解和预测气候变化过程中的重要性，尤其是在天气类型和降水分布的预测中。同时，它也揭示了Cost733评估在大气环流研究领域的应用潜力和价值。

An assessment of circulation type classiﬁcations for precipitation distribution

in Norway

Ole Einar Tveito

Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 43 Blindern, NO-0313 Oslo, Norway

article info

Article history:

Received 3 March 2009

Received in revised form 14 March 2010

Accepted 24 March 2010

Available online 24 April 2010

Keywords:

Weather types

Precipitation

Frequency analysis

Norway

abstract

This paper presents a climatological validation of atmospheric circulation type catalogues included in the

COST 733 dataset (COST733CAT). The circulation type classiﬁcations ability to describe patterns of the

Norwegian precipitation climate is analysed. For all 73 classiﬁcations included in the COST733CAT sev-

eral statistical measures are calculated for each individual circulation type. These statistics include both

frequencies of precipitation occurrence and statistical moments used to ﬁt

-distributions for each circu-

lation type at precipitation stations. In this paper results from four stations in different precipitation

regions and classiﬁcations with 9 types are emphasized. The circulation types employed represent

the COST 733 domain 02 (57–72°N, 6°W–25°E).

Precipitation occurrence frequency statistics and probability density functions are used to analyse if the

types within the circulation type classiﬁcations can describe different precipitation conditions. Simple

measures are developed in order to compare classiﬁcations. The similarity of probability density func-

tions of type speciﬁc precipitation within classiﬁcations are analysed applying Kolmogorov–Smirnov

tests. The type-speciﬁc distribution functions are also compared with the probability function of all pre-

cipitation events. The results reveal that some classiﬁcations, particularly those associated with the neu-

ral network methods does not discriminate precipitation distributions very well. On the other side many

classiﬁcations performs well and get high scores. Evaluating all 73 catalogues the results indicate best

results for classiﬁcations with 27–30 types.

1. Introduction

The atmospheric circulation has a major inﬂuence on regional

and local climate variations. It is well known that the climate de-

pends upon the prevailing winds, e.g. will climatic elements re-

spond differently to advection from a maritime environment

than airﬂow from a continental area. The inﬂuence of atmospheric

circulation can be found on several scales, both temporal and spa-

tial. The variations are most obvious when considering a synoptic

scale. For example will westerly air-ﬂows most likely give precip-

itation along the western coasts of Scotland and Scandinavia (Prud-

homme and Reed, 1998; Tveito et al., 2000). In a similar way will

north-easterly advection most likely result in precipitation in Cen-

tral Europe (Ustrnul and Czekierda, 2001).

Norway is a country with large climate variations. The proxim-

ity to sea and the relief of the country induces large climatological

gradients. Mean annual precipitation varies between less than 300

and more than 4000 mm. The wettest zone in Norway is along the

western coasts were the dominating westerly airﬂow combined

with a strong orographic inﬂuence results in high precipitation

amounts. There are however large variations in the precipitation

patterns with respect to atmospheric circulation and small changes

in the large scale wind direction and wind force results in consid-

erable changes in the spatial distribution of both precipitation

occurrence and precipitation amounts (Hanssen-Bauer and

Førland, 2000; Tveito, 2002).

Due to the inﬂuence of the large scale atmospheric circulation

on the regional and local climate variability, classiﬁcation of the

large scale atmospheric circulation has frequently been used to as-

sess links between atmospheric circulation and climate. Such clas-

siﬁcations of the atmospheric circulation have a long history. There

is a large number of various weather and circulation type classiﬁ-

cations. Yarnal (1993) and Yarnal et al. (2001) gave an overview of

the main concepts of these methods. Manual (subjective) classiﬁ-

cations of weather and circulation types like the classiﬁcations of

Wangenheim (1938), Girs (1948), Hess and Brezowsky (1952,

1977), Lamb (1950, 1972) among several others were developed

in the ﬁrst half of the 20th century. The basic principle of such clas-

siﬁcations is to simplify the complex nature of the dynamic prop-

erties of the atmosphere into discrete categories (circulation types)

by a set of rules. Computer assisted (sometimes referred to as auto-

matic) weather and circulation types classiﬁcations have devel-

oped over the last few decades. This group of classiﬁcations

doi:10.1016/j.pce.2010.03.044

E-mail address: ole.einar.tveito@met.no

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 35 (2010) 395–402

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/pce

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