"2019世界贸易报告：服务贸易未来变革"

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The 2019 World Trade Report delves into the future of services trade, exploring how this sector is expected to evolve in light of key trends such as demographic shifts and the increasing influence of digital technologies. The annual publication, issued by the World Trade Organization, aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of trade patterns, policy issues, and the multilateral trading system. This year's report sheds light on the growing importance of services trade, highlighting the potential opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. With a focus on how demographic changes and advancements in technology will shape the services trade landscape, the report offers valuable insights for policymakers, businesses, and other stakeholders. By examining these trends, the report aims to inform discussions and decision-making processes related to services trade, ultimately contributing to a more informed and effective global trading environment. For more information on the 2019 World Trade Report and other publications by the WTO, visit www.wto.org.

WORLD TRADE REPORT 2019

1. Globalization of services

The services sector is emerging as a key driver of

global trade.

Services have already transformed national economies

on a massive scale. Not only are services indispensable

to running our increasingly complex and sophisticated

industrial economies – from logistics, to finance, to

informatics – but the services sector is the fastest

growing economic segment in its own right – from

business services, to healthcare, to entertainment.

Services generate more than two-thirds of economic

output, attract over two-thirds of foreign direct

investment, and provide almost two-thirds of jobs in

developing countries and four-fifths in developed

ones.

Services now seem to be transforming international

trade in similar ways. Although they still only account

for one fifth of cross-border trade, they are the fastest

growing sector (WTO, 2017). While the value of

goods exports has increased at a modest 1 per cent

annually since 2011, the value of commercial services

exports has expanded at three times that rate, 3 per

cent (see Figure A.1). The services share of world

trade has grown from just 9 per cent in 1970 to over

20 per cent today – and this report forecasts that

services could account for up to one-third of world

trade by 2040.

This would represent a 50 per cent

increase in the share of services in global trade in just

two decades.

There is a common perception that globalization is

slowing down. But if the growing wave of services

trade is factored in – and not just the modest

increases in merchandise trade – then globalization

may be poised to speed up again.

2. Digitalized services: the non-

tradable becomes hyper-tradable

The main driver of this shift is technological change.

Thanks to digitalization, the internet and low-cost

telecommunications, many services sectors that

were once non-tradable – because they had to

be delivered face-to-face in a fixed location – have

become highly tradable – because they can now be

delivered remotely over long distances.

Of course, some services, such as taxis, hotels or

hair salons, will continue to be delivered locally and

require a physical presence (although companies

such as Uber and Airbnb demonstrate how even these

sectors can be radically transformed by new internet-

based business models). But other services, such

as retailing, software development, or outsourced

business processes, are now being “de-localized”

Figure A.1: Trade in goods has grown more slowly than trade in commercial services

Growth of world trade in goods and commercial services

100

150

200

250

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Value of world trade in goods

and commercial services

Index 2005=100

Goods Commercial services

Source

: WTO-UNCTAD-ITC estimates.

Note

: World trade is calculated as the average of world exports and world imports.

THE FUTURE OF SERVICES TRADE

A. INTRODUCTION

and “globalized” to an extent and on a scale that may

surpass the even most globe-spanning multinational

goods manufacturers.

Other services seem on the cusp of radical change.

Not too long ago, most medical services were

delivered by local doctors and hospitals to local

patients. Accessibility was limited, competition was

constrained, and quality could vary dramatically

across countries, regions, or even neighbourhoods.

Now, medical information is accessible to anyone

with an internet connection anywhere in the world;

medical procedures, such as diagnostics, analyses,

and even some types of surgery, are increasingly

performed remotely; and medical tourism is becoming

more common, as increasing numbers of patients

seek more affordable or advanced treatment abroad.

Similar trends can be seen in education, with the

proliferation of e-learning platforms such as Moodle

and Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), or in

entertainment, with the spread of streaming services

such as Netflix or Spotify. If services trade has yet to

realize its full growth potential, it is partly because

services industries are still catching up with the new

global business possibilities that technology has

created.

This seismic shift is in turn exposing many services

sectors to the same process of specialization,

competition and scale economies that previously

drove massive productivity gains in the manufacturing

sector. This helps to explain why information, finance

and telecommunications services have experienced

such fast productivity growth in recent decades –

faster even than many manufacturing industries.

In the process, the global economy itself is

being transformed. Just as the transport and

communications revolution in the latter half of the

century drove down the cost of trading tangible

goods across borders, giving rise to globalized

manufacturing, so too is the digital revolution in

the early 21

century rapidly driving down the cost

of trading services across border, giving rise to a

globalized services market.

Indeed, the globalization of services could unfold

even more rapidly than expected, as new technologies

not only allow existing services increasingly to be

traded across borders, but also help to drive the

development and growth of new services sectors, as

well as new ways of delivering services, that have yet

to be imagined.

3. The evolution of trade:

from agriculture to manufacturing

to services

The way services are transforming the global economy

is a delayed reflection of the way services have already

transformed national economies. During the 19

century, agrarian economies gradually evolved into

increasingly industrial economies, a transformation so

profound that it is termed the “Industrial Revolution”.

Then, during the 20

century, industrial economies

evolved into increasingly services-based economies: an

equally profound – and even more rapid – transformation

that could be termed the “Services Revolution”. In the

United States, for example, the services sector, which

accounted for just 43 per cent of GDP in 1950, had

grown to 61 per cent by 1990, and has reached almost

80 per cent today (BEA, 2019).

This progression from farms to factories to urban

offices was driven largely by productivity-enhancing

innovations, skills and technologies. As economies

learned to produce more agricultural and industrial

output with less labour, human resources were

freed up to supply an expanding range of services

– from improved healthcare, to better schooling,

to more entertainment. Improved services, in turn,

fuelled further productivity increases in farming and

manufacturing – both through the services that enable

production (such as finance, logistics, and retailing)

and the services that are embedded in production

(such as design or research and development).

Services already accounted for 76 per cent of GDP in

advanced economies in 2015 – up from 61 per cent in

1980 – and this share seems likely to rise (UNCTAD,

2017). In Japan, for example, services represent 68

per cent of GDP; in New Zealand, 72 per cent; and in

the US, almost 80 per cent (OECD, 2019).

Emerging economies, too, are becoming more

services-based – in some cases, at an even faster

pace than advanced ones (see Figure A.2). Despite

emerging as the “world’s factory” in recent decades,

China’s economy is shifting dramatically into services.

Services now account for over 52 per cent of GDP –

a higher share than manufacturing – up from 41 per

cent in 2005. In India, services now make up almost

50 per cent of GDP, up from just 30 per cent in 1970.

In Brazil, the share of services in GDP is even higher,

at 63 per cent (World Bank, 2019). Between 1980

and 2015, the average share of services in GDP

across all developing countries grew from 42 to 55

per cent (UNCTAD, 2017).

Some developing countries seem to have by-passed

the industrialization phase altogether, leapfrogging

WORLD TRADE REPORT 2019

directly from agriculture to services. In the Bahamas,

for example, manufacturing accounts for just 5 per

cent of GDP while services – dominated by finance

and tourism – account for over 85 per cent. Similar

trends can be observed in economies as diverse

as Bermuda and Sri Lanka. Services industries can

offer many advantages for developing countries that

manufacturing industries do not: they are generally

less capital-intensive, more mobile, more accessible

for female workers, and they can be up and running

more quickly (The Economist, 2011).

Just because the services sector is playing a bigger

role in national economies, this does not mean that

the manufacturing sector is shrinking or declining.

Many advanced economies are “post-industrial” only

in the sense that a shrinking share of the workforce is

engaged in manufacturing. Even in the world’s most

deindustrialized, services-dominated economies,

manufacturing output continues to expand thanks to

mechanization and automation, made possible in no

small part by advanced services. For example, US

manufacturing output tripled between 1970 and 2014

even though its share of employment fell from over 25

per cent to less than 10 per cent (Baily and Bosworth,

2014). The same pattern of rising industrial output

and shrinking employment can be found in Germany,

Japan and many other advanced economies.

This is because an economy’s prosperity does not

depend on the relative size of its manufacturing

or services sectors but on the productivity of the

economy as a whole – which in turn depends on

efficiencies and innovations across all sectors, and

the extent to which they are mutually reinforcing.

Just as an efficient services sector helps to fuel

manufacturing growth, so too does an efficient

manufacturing sector help to fuel services growth. In

essence, all economies, whether agrarian-, resource-,

or manufacturing-based, are “service economies”,

to the extent that producing any good necessarily

involves a service. What matters is how productively

those services are applied.

This line between manufacturing and services

activities, which is already difficult to distinguish

clearly, is becoming even more blurred across many

industries. Automakers, for example, are now also

service providers, routinely offering financing, product

customization, and post-sales care. Likewise, on-line

retailers are now also manufacturers, producing not

only the computer hardware required to access their

services, but many of the goods they sell on-line.

Meanwhile, new processes, like 3D printing, result in

products that are difficult to classify as either goods

or services and are instead a hybrid of the two. This

creative intertwining of services and manufacturing is

one key reason why productivity continues to grow.

Figure A.2: Services account for an increasing share of GDP

Growth of value-added in services (% GDP)

Source

: WTO calculations based on World Bank Development Indicators.

Note

: In this report, the aggregate “developing economies” includes developing economies, least-developed countries (LDCs), and the

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Except for LDCs, this statistical grouping has no implications for any matter relating to the

level of development of WTO members.

100

105

110

115

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Index 2005=100

Developed economies Developing economies

THE FUTURE OF SERVICES TRADE

A. INTRODUCTION

4. More complex services trade

requires more coherent policies

Although technology is driving the expansion of

services trade, both within and among economies,

it is not the only factor. More open and enabling

national policies, as well as greater international

regulatory cooperation, are critical as well. But while

the world trading system has been highly successful

in opening up goods trade – thereby helping to drive

century globalization – it has so far proved less

successful at opening up (or keeping open) trade in

services, the driver of 21

century globalization. Over

six decades of bilateral, regional, and multilateral

trade negotiations have thus resulted in a global

economy in which trade in goods, broadly speaking,

is more open than trade in services.

This imbalance partly reflects the importance of

merchandise trade in the past, and the tendency of

negotiators to focus many of their efforts on lowering

barriers to agricultural and manufactured exports. But

it also reflects the reality that the measures affecting

the international supply of goods – such as tariffs,

quotas, or technical standards – are generally simpler

and easier to address than the equivalent measures

affecting the international supply of services – such

as professional standards, licensing requirements,

investment restrictions, or work visas – which are

more complex and politically sensitive, and are likely

to be linked to other policy concerns besides trade.

Arguably, no measures affecting services trade are

more controversial today than those related to labour

mobility; and yet none have a greater impact given

the central role that human resources, talent, and

ingenuity play in driving innovation and growth.

This need for new approaches to services trade

– as well as for greater policy coherence – was

recognized when the WTO’s General Agreement

on Trade in Services (GATS) was first negotiated

during the Uruguay Round between 1986 and 1995.

The GATS set out four ways (or “modes”) in which

a service can be supplied internationally: mode

1 describes “cross-border trade” (e.g. through

the internet); mode 2 describes “consumption

abroad” (e.g. through tourism); mode 3 describes

“commercial presence” of an enterprise (e.g. through

foreign direct investment); and mode 4 describes

the “movement of natural persons” (e.g. through

temporary labour mobility). This novel architecture

clearly reflected the insight that opening services

trade required a complex nexus of different but

related policies and regulations.

The GATS represented a major step towards

creating an open and secure global policy framework

for services – especially in the context of the

ground-breaking negotiations of the 1998 WTO

Agreement on Basic Telecommunications Services

and the 1999 WTO Financial Services Agreement,

which helped to lay the groundwork for the global

expansion of finance and telecommunications in

recent decades. But these major advances in global

services regulation took place over two decades

ago, when the internet was in its infancy and Google

had yet to be invented. There is a risk that multilateral

rules are falling behind the fast-globalizing services

market they helped to create, leading to uncertainty

about future progress.

5. Why it matters

The globalization of services has the potential to

scale up growth, deepen integration, and level

the economic playing field in ways that go beyond

the changes wrought by the globalization of

manufacturing in recent decades.

It holds out the promise of a major expansion not

just of trade, but of the essential enablers of trade,

development, and economic growth, from transport,

logistics and information technology, to finance,

healthcare and education. Where services were

once secondary to a country’s industrial strength,

they are now central determinants of productivity,

competitiveness, and rising living standards.

Services-led growth strategies are becoming as

important as manufacturing-led growth strategies –

indeed, they need to go hand-in-hand. The ability to

access and export efficient, affordable, and innovative

services will be a game-changer for development.

The globalization of services also holds out the

promise of creating a truly global marketplace for skills,

expertise and knowledge, irrespective of geography or

distance. If the globalization of manufacturing created

a level playing field for products, the globalization of

services can create a level playing field for people.

For developed countries, services trade will be key to

retaining global competitiveness and building on their

technological strengths. For developing countries,

services trade offers an opportunity to leap-frog into

more high-value-added exports and to diversify away

from resources or manufacturing.

But with these new opportunities come new

challenges. Not only is there a need to devote more

energy and attention to services liberalization; there

is also a need to develop new negotiating tools and

approaches. If past negotiations to open up good

trade were driven mainly by tariff bargaining – the

exchange of one market access “concession” for

another – future negotiations to liberalize services

WORLD TRADE REPORT 2019

trade will be driven more by regulatory cooperation

– the effort to develop common standards, improve

information exchanges, or advance shared policy

objectives.

Goods-centred trade negotiations will need

increasingly to become services-centred trade

negotiations as well. And since services cross over

into other policy areas beside trade, such as health,

education and immigration, advancing services

negotiations will also require deeper cooperation and

more policy coherence with non-trade actors. This is

particularly true in the area of investment, since over

two-thirds of global foreign direct investment flows

into services sectors.

The globalization of services raises domestic, as

well as international, policy challenges. The same

technological shifts that make it possible for services

suppliers to reach global markets more easily,

also leave previously protected services sectors

more exposed to new competitive and adjustment

pressures. There is a risk that, even as technology

opens up and integrates services markets,

government policies will restrict or fragment them.

Equipping workers with the skills needed for a more

services-oriented, knowledge-based global economy,

while simultaneously helping existing services sectors

to adjust to the coming wave of competition, will be

important. Domestic reform will need to go hand-in-

hand with global reform.

The core message in the World Trade Report 2019

is that cross-border trade will increasingly involve

services, not just goods, agricultural products or

raw materials, and that it will transform the global

economy in the process. Globalization is not slowing

or stalling. Rather, it is evolving, driven by trade in

human skills, knowledge and ingenuity. The report’s

other core message is that finding innovative ways

to advance global trade cooperation will be key to

realizing this potential – and to ensuring that trade

remains an engine of global growth, development and

poverty reduction.

6. Structure of the report

The World Trade Report 2019 discusses how

services, and services trade in particular, have

evolved since the establishment of the WTO in 1995

and the entry into force of the GATS, and how trade

in services is likely to evolve further in the years to

come. It also discusses the role of international

cooperation on trade in services.

The report is divided into four main parts:

Section B reviews recent trends in services trade. It

analyses the relative importance of the various modes

of supply and examines the sectoral evolution of trade

in services. It also discusses the participation of

micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs)

and of women in services trade. Section B ends with

a discussion of the content of services value-added

in international trade.

Section C examines the role of trade in services in

helping economies to achieve rapid and inclusive

growth. It reviews and attempts to quantify how

services trade benefits the economy and promotes

growth, and it discusses the role trade in services

plays in enhancing the competitiveness of domestic

firms. Finally, it considers how services trade

promotes inclusiveness, for example in terms of skills,

gender and the location of economic activity.

Section D reviews recent trends in services trade

costs and identifies the factors affecting these

costs. It looks at major future trends in technology,

demography, income and climate change to explain

how these trends can affect the choice of services

traded by economies, with whom they trade

these services, and how. The section ends with

a quantification of the potential impact that these

trends have on trade in services, using the WTO

Global Trade Model.

Section E discusses the motivations for international

cooperation in services policy-making. It outlines the

changing landscape of trade in services, the rationale

for and the design of governments’ interventions in

services markets, and the reasons why governments

may choose to collaborate on services trade policies.

It examines how economies engage in international

cooperation on services and describes how

cooperation has evolved and is evolving, both within

the WTO and in regional trade agreements. It also

provides an overview of the regulatory cooperation

activities of other international organizations that are

most relevant to services trade, and it considers the

prospects for further collaboration on services trade

policy.

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