CMS Collaboration / Physics Letters B 748 (2015) 255–277 259
Fig. 1. Observed distributions of m
ZH
for the all-leptonic channels along with the
corresponding MC expectations for signal and background, as well as background
estimation derived from data: (top) τ
e
τ
e
category; (middle) τ
e
τ
μ
category; (bottom)
τ
μ
τ
μ
category. Ten equal-size histogram bins cover the region from 0 to 2.5 TeV,
while a single bin is used at higher m
ZH
because of the limited number of MC and
data events. The signal cross section is scaled by a factor of 5.
small contributions from potential signal resonances. In the case
of the semileptonic channels, we show in Fig. 3 the distribution of
m
P
jet
for data and MC at the preselection level. The black line, rep-
resenting
the fit to data, is obtained by the sum of Eqs. (3) and
(4), with the tt shape as obtained from the control sample, the tt
normalization
is fixed to MC scaled by the two SFs, and the other
components are free in the sideband fit. An overall agreement be-
tween
data and prediction is observed. The background prediction
in the signal region is 156 ±26 events, with an observation of 151
events, for the τ
e
τ
h
channel and 204 ± 31 events, with an obser-
vation
of 203 events, for the τ
μ
τ
h
channel.
In the all-hadronic channel, for events where the leading jet
satisfies the requirement τ
21
< 0.75, a plane is defined using the
m
P
jet
and m
ττ
variables and four regions are considered, as shown
in Fig. 4. Most of the signal events are expected in region A, while
regions B, C, D are dominated by background events. Studies of the
correlation factors for simulated events and in regions orthogonal
Fig. 2. Observed distributions of m
ZH
for the semileptonic channels along with the
corresponding MC expectations for signal and background, as well as background
estimation derived from data: (top) τ
e
τ
h
category; (bottom) τ
μ
τ
h
category. Ten
equal-size histogram bins cover the region from 0 to 2.5 TeV, while a single bin
is used at higher m
ZH
because of the limited number of MC and data events. The
signal cross section is scaled by a factor of 5.
to the signal region show that the variables m
P
jet
and m
ττ
are es-
sentially
uncorrelated. In this case, the total number of background
events in the region A can be estimated as:
N
bkg
=(N
B
N
D
)/N
C
. (5)
The method described by Eq. (5), called “ABCD method”, gives a
background prediction in the signal region that has been checked
to be insensitive to possible signal contamination in the regions B,
C, D.
Fig. 5 shows the observed distributions of m
ZH
in the τ
h
τ
h
chan-
nel,
along with the corresponding MC expectations for signal and
background. The low number of events in regions B, C, D is not suf-
ficient
to derive the shape of the distribution in the signal region
using the ABCD method. We use the results from this method to
compute the cross section upper limits, which are obtained with-
out
assumptions about the shape of the distributions. The ABCD
method is checked using an alternative background estimation
technique, where tt, W + jets and Z + jets background contri-
butions
are given by Eq. (2), while the QCD multijet background
is estimated from a control sample of events where at least one τ
candidate fails the isolation requirement. The same control sample
is used to obtain the shape of the QCD distribution in the signal
region presented in Fig. 5.
8. Systematic uncertainties
The sources of systematic uncertainty in this analysis, which
affect either the background estimation or the signal efficiencies,
are described below.
For
the signal efficiency, the main uncertainties come from the
limited number of signal MC events (3–10%), the integrated lumi-