The CMS Collaboration / Physics Letters B 774 (2017) 533–558 537
Table 3
Correlation
across analyses of systematic uncertainties in the signal prediction affecting the event yield in the signal region and the reconstructed diboson invariant mass
distribution. A“yes” signifies 100% correlation, and “no” means uncorrelated.
Source Quantity 8 and 13 TeV e and μ HP and LP W-, Z-, and H-enriched
Lepton trigger yield no no yes yes
Lepton identification yield no no yes yes
Lepton momentum scale yield, shape no no yes yes
Jet energy scale yield, shape no yes yes yes
Jet energy resolution yield, shape no yes yes yes
Jet mass scale yield no yes yes yes
Jet mass resolution yield no yes yes yes
b tagging yield no yes yes yes
W tagging
τ
21
(HP/LP) yield no yes yes yes
Integrated luminosity yield no yes yes yes
Pileup yield no yes yes yes
PDF yield yes yes yes yes
μ
f
and μ
r
scales yield yes yes yes yes
previously obtained in the same models as those considered in this
letter and a reinterpretation is not needed.
4. Combination procedure
We search for a peak on top of a falling background spectrum
by means of a fit to the data. The likelihood function is con-
structed
using the diboson invariant mass distribution in data, the
background prediction, and the resonant line-shape, to assess the
presence of a potential diboson resonance. We define the likeli-
hood
function L as
L(data | μ s(θ) +b(θ)) = P (data | μ s(θ ) +b(θ )) p(
˜
θ|θ), (1)
where “data” stands for the observed data; θ represents the full
ensemble of nuisance parameters; s(θ ) and b(θ ) are the expected
signal and background yields; μ is a scale factor for the signal
strength; P(data | μ s(θ) + b (θ )) is the product of Poisson prob-
abilities
over all bins of diboson invariant mass distributions in
all channels (or over all events for channels with unbinned dis-
tributions);
and p(
˜
θ|θ) is the probability density function for all
nuisance parameters to measure a value
˜
θ
given its true value θ
[52]. After maximizing the likelihood function, the best-fit value
of μ = σ
best-fit
/σ
theory
corresponds therefore to the ratio of the
best-fit signal cross section σ
best-fit
to the predicted cross section
σ
theory
, assuming that all branching fractions are as predicted by
the relevant signal models.
The treatment of the background in the maximum likelihood
fit depends on the analysis channel. In the qqqq, qqbb, and 6q
analyses,
the parameters in the background function are left float-
ing
in the fit, such that the background prediction is obtained
simultaneously with μ, in each hypothesis [15]. In the remaining
analyses (νqq, qq, bb, νbb, ννbb), the background is esti-
mated
using sidebands in data, and the uncertainties related to
its parametrized distribution are treated as nuisance parameters
constrained through Gaussian probability density functions in the
fit [14]. The likelihoods from all analysis channels are combined.
The asymptotic approximation [53] of the CL
s
criterion [54,55]
is
used to obtain limits on the signal scale factor μ that take into
account the ratio of the theoretical predictions for the production
cross sections at 8 and 13 TeV.
Systematic
uncertainties in the signal and background yields
are treated as nuisance parameters constrained through log-normal
probability density functions. All such parameters are profiled (re-
fitted
as a function of the parameter of interest μ) in the maxi-
mization
of the likelihood function. When the likelihoods from dif-
ferent
analysis channels are combined, the correlation of system-
atic
effects across those channels is taken into account by treating
the uncertainties as fully correlated (associated with the same nui-
sance
parameter) or fully uncorrelated (associated with different
nuisance parameters). Table 3 summarizes which uncertainties are
treated as correlated among 8 and 13 TeV analyses, e and μ chan-
nels,
HP and LP categories, and mass categories enriched in W,
Z, and Higgs bosons in the combination. Additional categorization
within individual analyses is described in their corresponding pa-
pers.
The nuisance parameters treated as correlated between 8 and
13 TeV analyses are those related to the parton distribution func-
tions
(PDFs) and the choice of the factorization (μ
f
) and renormal-
ization
(μ
r
) scales used to estimate the signal cross sections. The
signal cross sections and their associated uncertainties are reevalu-
ated
for this combination at both 8 and 13 TeV, estimating thereby
their full impact on the expected signal yield rather than just the
impact on the signal acceptance. The PDF uncertainties are evalu-
ated
using the NNPDF 3.0 [56] PDFs. The uncertainty related to the
choice of μ
f
and μ
r
scales is evaluated following [57,58] by chang-
ing
the default choice of scales in six combinations of (μ
f
, μ
r
) by
factors of (0.5, 0.5), (0.5, 1), (1, 0.5), (2, 2), (2, 1), and (1, 2). The
experimental uncertainties are all treated as uncorrelated between
8 and 13 TeV analyses. The case where the most important uncer-
tainties
are treated as fully correlated among 8 and 13 TeV analyses
has been studied and found to have negligible impact on the re-
sults.
After the combined fit, no nuisance parameter was found to
differ significantly from its expectation and from the fit result in
individual analyses.
5. Results
We evaluate the combined significance of the 8 and 13 TeV
CMS
searches for all signal hypotheses. The ATLAS Collaboration
reported an excess in the all-jet VV → qqqqsearch, corresponding
to a local significance of 3.4 standard deviations (s.d.) for a W
res-
onance
with a mass of 2TeV [21]. Similarly, the CMS experiment
reported a local deviation of 2.2 s.d. in the lepton+jet WH →νbb
search
for a W
resonance with a mass of 1.8 TeV [16]. The present
combination does not confirm these small excesses (within the
context of the models considered), as the highest combined sig-
nificance
in the mass range of the reported excesses is found to
be for a W
resonance at 1.8 TeV with a local significance of 0.8
standard deviations.
In the following, we present for each channel 95% CL exclusion
limits on the signal strength μ in Eq. (1), expressed as the exclu-
sion
limit on the ratio σ
95%
/σ
theory
of the signal cross section to
the predicted cross section, assuming that all branching fractions
are as predicted by the relevant signal models.