2016数学建模国赛精选论文集及解答点评

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资源摘要信息:"2016年数学建模国赛优秀论文.zip" 这份资源包含了2016年中国大学生数学建模竞赛中的优秀论文,覆盖了ABCD四个赛题。数学建模竞赛要求参赛队伍运用数学知识和技能解决实际问题,强调模型的建立、求解以及结果的解释与验证。优秀论文集是对比赛成果的总结,其中包含了30多篇在竞赛中表现突出的论文,每篇论文不仅有详尽的解答过程,还包括了赛事评委的点评。这为后来的研究者和参赛者提供了一个研究和学习的宝贵资料库。 以下是对资源中可能涉及的知识点的详细说明: 1. 数学建模基本概念:数学建模是指利用数学工具对实际问题进行抽象、简化和假设,形成数学结构,并通过数学计算和分析来研究问题、预测未来、辅助决策的过程。数学建模的主要步骤包括问题的提出、模型的假设、模型的建立、模型的求解、模型的检验与修正等。 2. 数学建模的分类:数学模型大致可以分为优化模型、动态系统模型、统计模型、概率模型等几大类。每种类型的模型解决的问题各有侧重,所使用的数学工具和方法也有所不同。 3. 模型的求解方法:数学模型求解通常需要借助各种数学工具,包括代数、微积分、差分方程、微分方程、线性规划、非线性规划、图论、概率论与数理统计等。对于复杂的模型,往往需要运用计算机编程实现数值求解。 4. 模型评价与优化:一个好的数学模型不仅要求有正确的求解过程,还需要对结果进行合理性和有效性评价。评价指标可能包括模型的精确度、稳定性和泛化能力等。优化过程可能涉及参数的调整或模型结构的改进。 5. 数学建模竞赛的组织形式:数学建模竞赛通常由组织方出题,给出一段时间让参赛者进行模型构建与求解。竞赛题型可能包括理论题、实际问题、开放性问题等。参赛者需要在规定时间内提交论文,阐述模型的建立过程、求解方法和结果分析。 6. 竞赛论文的撰写:数学建模论文通常需要有明确的格式,包括摘要、关键词、问题重述、模型假设、符号说明、模型建立和求解、模型验证、灵敏度分析、优缺点讨论、参考文献等部分。论文要求逻辑清晰、表达准确、格式规范。 7. 数学建模相关软件工具:在数学建模过程中,可能会使用到各类数学软件和编程语言,如MATLAB、Mathematica、R语言、Python等。这些工具可以提高模型求解的效率和准确性,对于图形的绘制、数据处理、算法实现等方面有着重要作用。 8. 数学建模的教育意义:数学建模不仅仅是一项竞赛活动,它在教育领域同样具有重要意义。它能培养学生的创新意识、实践能力、团队协作精神和科学思维方法,是理工科教育中不可或缺的一环。 这份资源为数学建模爱好者和学生提供了宝贵的学习材料,通过研究这些优秀论文,参赛者可以学习到如何将复杂的实际问题抽象成数学问题,并运用数学工具进行解决。同时,通过阅读评委的点评,参赛者可以了解到模型的优点和不足,从而在未来的竞赛中避免同样的错误,进一步提升自己的建模能力和水平。

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Our planet is getting thirstier and thirstier. Water scarcity has become an increasingly hard but urgent problem. To make contributions to solve the water problems, we proposed a metric model to identify the ability of each country to manage water scarcity, and offered solutions to a country considered water over-loaded. First we developed our metric, Total Scarcity Metric, and divided it into Physical Scarcity Metric (affected by environmental factors and population) and Economic Scarcity Metric (affected by social factors other than population) by the two causes of water scarcity. The detailed factors were selected to make a difference. We made some adjustments to an indicator we found widely-used in the literatures, and determine Physical Scarcity Metric based on it. For Economic Scarcity Metric, we built a factor model with its weight calculated by Grey Relational Analysis. To combine them, we introduced a parameter  revealing the relative emphasis between physical scarcity and economic scarcity of each country. Its value varies by countries, so it’s more proper to discuss it in the country level. Then we used data from 83 countries to verify our model, and found a similar water scarcity distribution compared to UN’s “World Scarcity Map”. By providing sensitivity analysis on  ,we indicated the importance of its selection for each country. Based on that result, we chose Pakistan for further analysis. First we discussed the possible factors accounting for its current water situation, including 2 environmental factors and 5 social factors. We made it clear how and what kind of scarcity they affect. To forecast the water situation in 2030 by our metric, we determined the predicted value of influential factors by Grey Forecasting Model and Regression Analysis with little error. We found Pakistan less susceptible to economic scarcity but more to physical scarcity at that time. Its total water scarcity will be alleviated. Next, we devised an intervention plan to improve the ability of Pakistan to deal with its water scarcity. The plan is made up of physical scarcity plan and economic scarcity plan. Considering the impact of each policy, we analyzed the overall strengths and weaknesses in a larger context. To see how our plan performs, we ran our model again under some hypothesized settings. Although Pakistan performed better with our plan and its economic scarcity can be alleviated, it will still face water scarcity, especially physical water scarcity. In conclusion, Pakistan still has a long way to go.
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