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SPSS18.0 预测英文教程
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更新于2023-03-03
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SPSS18.0 预测 英文教程 其中包括如何使用专家模型编辑器,而且包括了几个实用的范例~很好滴说~免费下载呦
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i
PASW
®
Forecasting 18
For more information about SPSS Inc. software products, please visit our Web site at http://www.spss.com or co ntact
SPSS Inc.
233 South Wacker Drive, 11th Floor Chicago, IL 60606-6412
Tel: (312) 651-3000 Fax: (312) 651-3668
SPSS is a registered trademark.
PASW is a registered trademark of SPSS Inc.
The SOFTWARE and documentation are provided with RESTRICTED RIGHTS. Use, duplication, or disclosure by the
Government is subject to restrictions as set forth in subdivision (c) (1) (ii) of The Rights in Technical Data and Computer Software
clause at 52.227-7013. Contractor/manufacturer is SPSS Inc., 233 South Wacker Drive, 11th Floor, Chicago, IL 60606-6412.
Patent No. 7,023,453
General notice: Other product names mentioned herein are used for identification p urposes only and may be trademarks of
their respective companies.
Windows is a registered tra demark of Microsoft Corporation.
Apple, Mac, and the Mac logo are trademarks of Apple Computer, Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.
This product uses WinWrap Basic, Copyright 1993-2007, Polar Engineering and Consulting, h ttp: //www.winwrap.c om.
Printed in the United States of America.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, st or ed in a retrieval sy ste m, or transmitted, in any form or b y any means,
electronic, mechanical, ph otocopying, recording, o r oth erwise, without the prior written permission o f the publisher.
Preface
PASW Statistics 18 is a comprehensive system for analyzing data. The Forecasting optional
add-on module provides the additional analytic techniques described in this manual. The
Forecasting add-on module must be used with the PASW Statistics 18 Core system and is
completely integrated into that system.
Installation
To install the Forecasting add-on module, run the License Authorization Wizard using the
authorization code that you received from SPSS Inc. For more information, see the installation
instructions supplied with the Forecasting add-on module.
Compatibi lit y
PASW Statistics is designed to run on many computer systems. See the installation instructions
that came with your system for specific information on minimum and recommended requirements.
Serial Numbers
Your serial number is your identification number with SPSS Inc. You will need this serial number
when you contact SPSS Inc. for information regarding support, payment, or an upgraded system.
The serial number was provided with your Core system.
Customer Service
If you have any questions concerning your shi
pment or account, contact your local office, listed
on the Web site at http://www.spss.com/worldwide. Please have your serial number ready for
identification.
Training Seminars
SPSS Inc. provides both public and onsite training seminars. All seminars feature hands-on
workshops. Seminars will be offered in major cities on a regular basis. For more information on
these seminars, contact your local office, listed on the Web site at http://www.spss.com/worldwide.
Technical Support
Technical Support services are available to maintenance customers. Customers may
contact Technical Support for assistance in using PASW Statistics or for installation help
for one of the supported hardware environments. To reach Technical Support, see the
Web site at http://www.spss.com, or contact your local office,listedontheWebsiteat
iii
http://www.spss.com/worldwide. Be prepared to identify yourself, your organization, and the
serial number of your system.
Additional Publication s
The SPSS Statistics Statistical Procedures Companion, by Marija Norušis, has been published
by Prentice Hall. A new version of this book, updated for PASW Statistics 18, is planned. The
SPSS Statistics Advanced Statistical Procedures Companion, also based on PASW Statistics 18,
is forthcoming. The SPSS Statistics Guide to Data Analysis for PASW Statistics 18 is also in
development. Announcements of publications available exclusively through Prentice Hall will
be available on the Web site at http://www.spss.com/estore (select your home country, and then
click
Books).
iv
Contents
Part I: User’s Guide
1 Introduction to Time Series 1
TimeSeriesData ............................................................. 1
DataTransformations.......................................................... 2
EstimationandValidationPeriods................................................. 2
BuildingModelsandProducingForecasts .......................................... 2
2 Time Series Modeler 3
SpecifyingOptionsfortheExpertModeler .......................................... 6
ModelSelectionandEventSpecification........................................ 7
HandlingOutlierswiththeExpertModeler....................................... 8
CustomExponentialSmoothingModels ............................................ 9
CustomARIMAModels.........................................................10
ModelSpecificationforCustomARIMAModels...................................11
TransferFunctionsinCustomARIMAModels ....................................12
Outliers in Cu
stomARIMAModels.............................................14
Output .....................................................................15
StatisticsandForecastTables................................................16
Plots...................................................................18
LimitingOutputtotheBest-orPoorest-FittingModels..............................20
Saving Model P
redictionsandModelSpecifications...................................21
Options.....................................................................23
TSMODEL Comma
ndAdditionalFeatures...........................................24
3 Apply Time Ser
ies M odels 25
Output .....................................................................28
StatisticsandForecastTables................................................28
Plots...................................................................30
LimitingOutputtotheBest-orPoorest-FittingModels..............................32
SavingModelPredictionsandModelSpecifications...................................33
v
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