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首页Probability with Applications(概率论在工程、科学、技术中的应用,2017年第2版)
Probability with Applications(概率论在工程、科学、技术中的应用,2017年第2版)
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Probability with Applications in Engineering, Science, and Technology, 2ed(概率论在工程、科学、技术中的应用,2017年第2版)
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Springer Texts in Statistics
Probability with
Applications in
Engineering,
Science, and
Technology
Matthew A. Carlton
Jay L. Devore
Second Edition
Springer Texts in Statistics
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/417
Series Editors
R. DeVeaux
S.E. Fienberg
I. Olkin
Matthew A. Carlton • Jay L. Devore
Probability with Applications
in Engineering, Science,
and Technology
Second Edition
Editors
Matthew A. Carlton
Department of Statistics
California Polytechnic State University
San Luis Obispo, CA, USA
Jay L. Devore
Department of Statistics
California Polytechnic State University
San Luis Obispo, CA, USA
ISSN 1431-875X ISSN 2197-4136 (eBook)
Springer Texts in Statistics
ISBN 978-3-319-52400-9 ISBN 978-3-319-52401-6 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-52401-6
Library of Congress Control Number: 2017932278
# Springer International Publishing AG 2014, 2017
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or
part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of
illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way,
and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software,
or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are
exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in
this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor
the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material
contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made.
Printed on acid-free paper
This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature
The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Additional material to this book can be downloaded from http://extras.springer.com.
Preface
Purpose
Our objective is to provide a post-calculus introduction to the subject of probability that
• Has mathematical integrity and contains some underlying theory
• Shows students a broad range of applications involving real problem scenarios
• Is current in its selection of topics
• Is accessible to a wide audience, including mathematics and statistics majors (yes, there are a few
of the latter, and their numbers are growing), prospective engineers and scientists, and business
and social science majors interested in the quantitative aspects of their disciplines
• Illustrates the importance of software for carrying out simulations when answers to questions
cannot be obtained analytically
A number of currently available probability texts are heavily oriented toward a rigorous mathe-
matical development of probability, with much emphasis on theorems, proofs, and derivations. Even
when applied material is included, the scenarios are often contrived (many examples and exercises
involving dice, coins, cards, and widgets). So in our exposition we have tried to achieve a balance
between mathematical foundations and the application of probability to real-world problems. It is our
belief that the theory of probability by itself is often not enough of a “hook” to get students interested
in further work in the subject. We think that the best way to persuade students to continue their
probabilistic education beyond a first course is to show them how the methodology is used in practice.
Let’s first seduce them (figuratively speaking, of course) with intriguing problem scenarios and
applications. Opportunities for exposure to mathematical rigor will follow in due course.
Content
The book begins with an Introduction, which contains our attempt to address the followi ng question:
“Why study probability?” Here we are trying to tantalize students with a number of intriguing
problem scenarios—coupon collection, birth and death processes, reliability engineering, finance,
queuing models, and various conundrums involvi ng the misinterpretation of probabilistic information
(e.g., Benford’s Law and the detection of fraudulent data, birthday problems, and the likelihood of
having a rare disease when a diagnostic test result is positive). Most of the exposition contains
references to recently published results. It is not necessary or even desirable to cover very much of
this motivational material in the classroom. Instead, we suggest that instructors ask their students to
read selectively outside class (a bit of pleasure reading at the very beginning of the term should not be
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