加速气候韧性基础设施建设：中国气候适应行动的重要机遇

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《加速气候韧性基础设施建设》一书旨在探讨中国在面临严峻气候风险的背景下，加强气候韧性基础设施建设的紧迫性和重要性。本书首先分析了全球亟需加强气候适应工作的现状，并强调了中国在此方面的行动刻不容缓。接着，通过对未来气候风险的发展趋势和典型案例地区气候风险的预测，揭示了中国基础设施面临的严峻气候风险。同时，本书也深入探讨了加强气候韧性基础设施建设所带来的三重红利，包括气候韧性基础设施成本效益评估方法学和代表性案例投资回报收益分析，以及推广气候韧性基础设施建设的重要意义。最后，本书针对气候韧性基础设施融资创新进行了探讨，包括对资金供需不匹配的问题的分析和探索气候韧性基础设施融资机制的建议。总之，本书通过对中国面临的气候风险和加强气候韧性基础设施建设的必要性进行深入分析，为中国在气候适应领域的发展提供了重要的参考和建议。在当前全球气候变化愈发严重的情况下，加强气候韧性基础设施建设已成为全球范围内的共识。本书指出，全球亟需加强气候适应工作，而中国作为全球最大的碳排放国之一，更是承受着巨大的气候风险压力，因此在加强气候韧性基础设施建设方面刻不容缓。同时，本书也指出了中国基础设施面临的严峻气候风险，通过对未来气候风险的发展趋势和对典型案例地区气候风险的预测，揭示了中国气候风险的严峻性和紧迫性。在这种背景下，加强气候韧性基础设施建设被认为是解决这些气候风险的有效途径。本书的另一个重要贡献在于深入探讨了加强气候韧性基础设施建设所带来的三重红利，包括气候韧性基础设施成本效益评估方法学和代表性案例投资回报收益分析，以及推广气候韧性基础设施建设的重要意义。通过对气候韧性基础设施成本效益的评估和代表性案例的投资回报收益分析，本书强调了加强气候韧性基础设施建设的经济效益和社会效益。同时，本书也分析了将气候韧性基础设施建设代表性案例推广到全国的重要意义，强调了这种推广对于中国全国范围内气候韧性基础设施建设的重要意义。最后，本书针对气候韧性基础设施融资创新进行了深入分析。气候韧性基础设施资金供需不匹配的问题是当前中国面临的一个重要挑战，本书对此进行了深入的分析。同时，本书也探索了气候韧性基础设施融资机制的建议，为解决这一问题提供了重要的参考和建议。总之，本书通过对中国面临的气候风险和加强气候韧性基础设施建设的必要性进行深入分析，为中国在气候适应领域的发展提供了重要的参考和建议。希望通过本书的出版，能够引起社会各界对于加强气候韧性基础设施建设的重视，并为中国在这一领域的发展提供有益的帮助。

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加速气候韧性基础设施建设

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ENGLISH HIGHLIGHTS

HIGHLIGHTS

▪

In August 2021, the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that the 1.5°C

global warming threshold is likely to be breached in the next 20 years. If such warming continues, it will result in

irreversible impacts on nature and ecosystems. While continuous eorts are essential to mitigate climate change, we

must simultaneously accelerate the investment in climate adaptation to build resilience to climate change and reduce

any associated damage.

▪

This report systematically defines and analyzes climate risks and the corresponding climate-resilient infrastructures

(CRI) in China. Building on three case studies, it evaluates future agricultural drought risks, urban waterlogging and

coastal storm surges faced respectively by three locations – Ningxia, Wuhan and Shenzhen – and discusses in depth

the necessity of promoting CRI.

▪

Based on a triple-dividend (i.e. avoid damage loss, economic benefit, and social and environmental benefit) framework,

this report systematically analyzes the return on investment of three types of CRI – namely water-saving irrigation

facilities, sponge city construction, and grey-green sea dike construction – in the three case study areas. Our estimate

suggests that every RMB 1 invested can generate RMB 2-20 of returns over a period of 30 years.

▪

Scaling up CRI more broadly in China is extremely important. For instance, the adoption of water-saving irrigation

facilities nationwide can ensure national food security; sponge city construction can protect inland cities against

storm water damage; green-grey sea dike protection can strengthen coastal resilience and protect coastal populations

against storm surges.

▪

China faces significant financial shortfalls for CRI. We must quickly fill the annual funding gap of nearly RMB 500 billion

over the next five years, by leveraging private capital and developing new financing mechanisms.

▪

The three case studies suggest that innovative financial instruments – such as Resilience Bonds (RB), Public

Private Partnerships (PPP) and Resilience Impact Bonds (RIB) – can create eective new finance streams to fund

CRI. Specific financing strategies developed by local governments and financial institutions must be informed by

cost-benefit analyses.

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Background

With the worrying increase in the global

average temperature, current climate

mitigation eorts are deemed insucient

to cope with the increasing climate risks.

To minimize the potential economic losses

from extreme weather events, the world

urgently needs to accelerate investment in

climate adaptation strategies, especially in

developing countries. If immediate action on

climate adaptation is not undertaken, constraints

will be placed on global agricultural production,

populations without access to drinking water will

rise, and force millions living in coastal cities to

migrate. Together, they will lead to approximately

US$1 trillion in economic losses every year. China

is among the countries that are most aected by

climate change. With the increased frequency of

extreme weather events, it is expected that climate

risks – mainly droughts, oods and storm surges –

will continue to intensify in the future, threatening

food security, as well as people’s lives and property.

In the face of this grim situation, China

needs to further strengthen its policies

and actions to adapt to climate change.

However, global action on adaptation is

lagging. Despite the long-standing notion,

the development of policy and a monitoring

system for climate adaptation in China is still

in its infancy. Since climate adaptation covers

a wide range of areas, we need sector specific

and localized action plans to advance national

climate adaptation efforts.

The window of opportunity for accelerating

CRI development in China is now. The

year 2021 marks the beginning of China’s 14th

Five-Year Plan. It also marks the start of eorts

to meet President Xi’s “dual carbon” goals of

peaking emissions by 2030 and becoming carbon

neutral before 2060. As the country starts to

implement its post-COVID-19 economic recovery

plan, the government could consider directing

more nancial resources to areas which can build

resilience to climate change. The 14th Five-Year

Plan and the Long-Term Goals for 2035 have set

a new infrastructure construction as a priority.

China must seize this opportunity. If climate-

adaptation measures can be integrated into the

design and construction of new infrastructure,

加速气候韧性基础设施建设

China will not only become resilient in the face

of future climate change, but also gain new

economic advantages and create new employment

opportunities that can benet its people.

About This Report

This report focuses on the three types of climate

risk – namely agricultural drought risk, urban

waterlogging and coastal storm surges – that

China is most likely to face in the future. We

assess the expected costs and benefits associated

with CRI investment and explore potential

financing instruments and mechanisms that

could help leverage finance for CRI projects.

The findings of this study are expected to inform

China’s National Climate Change Adaptation

Strategy 2035, accelerate climate adaptation

action across governments at all levels during

the 14th Five-Year Plan, and equip policymakers

and researchers with a concrete research base

and methodological framework to advance

climate adaptation actions.

This report is conducted by the World Resources

Institute (WRI), in collaboration with the

National Center for Climate Change Strategy

and International Cooperation (NCSC) and the

International Institute of Green Finance (IIGF)

from the Central University of Finance and

Economics. In particular, NCSC leads the analysis

of future climate risks, WRI pilots the cost-benet

analysis, and IIGF is responsible for the analysis of

potential nancial mechanisms for CRI projects.

Key Findings

China’s Infrastructure faces increasing

risks from climate change

Infrastructure that supports all sorts of

social activities and economic growth faces

increasing climate risks in the future.

Meanwhile, social demographic changes also

expose infrastructure to natural hazards,

making it more vulnerable. Hazardous

events – such as continuous droughts, oods

and waterlogging, storm surges and typhoons,

hurricanes, strong snowfall, freezing, blizzards,

and high temperatures – will accelerate under

climate change and directly aect the operations

of infrastructure systems, such as energy,

transportation, communications, water supply and

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drainage. As a result of China’s rapid economic

growth, urbanization rates and population densities

continue to rise, meaning that infrastructure

becomes ever more exposed and vulnerable to

climate change. Therefore, it is important to clearly

identify specic climate risks faced by dierent key

infrastructure systems in order to develop plans that

can eectively protect these systems against climate

change and enhance climate resilience accordingly.

This report focuses on three case

study areas, namely Ningxia, Wuhan

and Shenzhen, and analyzes the most

frequent and widespread events – such as

droughts, waterlogging and storm surges

– that could affect Chinese infrastructure

in the future.

▪

Ningxia is a province in northwestern China.

With limited access to water, its inhabitants

suffer from chronic drought. Local crop ir-

rigation relies heavily on the Yellow River,

which has suffered serious runoff reduction

under climae change impacts. As a result, the

related irrigation systems are extremely vul-

nerable to climate change. Our research sug-

gests that in the next 30 years most areas in

Ningxia will face increased risks from drought

that could seriously impact crop yields. In

order to alleviate the problem, Ningxia needs

to strengthen the drought resistance of its

agricultural irrigation systems and improve

water-saving irrigation measures.

▪

Wuhan is a city in central China, located in the

transition zone between the southeast coast and

the inland. Situated on the Yangtze River, Wu-

han also gets abundant amounts of rainfall, char-

acterized by a long rainy season, heavy rainfall,

and frequent intensive rainstorms. During rainy

seasons, the surrounding rivers can easily surge,

which makes it dicult to discharge storm water

and increases the risk of urban waterlogging. By

simulating the changes during signicant rain-

storm days and the intensity of rainstorms, our

ndings indicate that the Wuhan metropolitan

areas and its surrounds will suer greatly from

continued rainstorms. As climate change intensi-

es, the frequency and intensity of these rain-

storms will also increase signicantly, leading to

increased threats from ooding. City authorities

need to improve the climate resilience of urban

drainage systems and enhance prevention mea-

sures for waterlogging.

▪

Shenzhen is a city on China’s southern

coast. Under the governance of Shenzhen

municipality, the Dapeng Peninsula is one

area which suffers greatly from frequent

typhoon landings and storm surges. Build-

ing off the existing research and statistics on

marine disasters in the area, this research

suggests that, from the impact of climate

change, the region will face accelerated

sea-level rises, high tide-level rises, and

more frequent, intensive and long-lasting

storm surges. This will consequently aggra-

vate the damage to coastal infrastructure,

disrupt economic activity, damage coastal

ecosystems, and threaten people’s safety.

Therefore, building a more climate-resilient

coastline is both urgent and necessary.

CRI projects are worth scaling up due to

the high return on investment

Investment in CRI can lead to triple

dividends, including avoided losses from

damage, economic benets, and social and

environmental benets. This report develops

two scenarios to better understand and quantify the

additionality of CRI (that is, the additional benets

brought by more resilient construction). More

specically, the scenarios distinguish between a

“Baseline Scenario”, which assumes that no action

will be undertaken by local governments towards

resilient construction; and a “Resilient Construction

Scenario”, which assumes that local governments

will proactively invest in climate resilient

infrastructure to mitigate future climate risks. By

comparing the costs and benets associated with

the two scenarios, we can assess the additional

benets generated by CRI investment.

Following the triple dividend analytical

framework, we apply dierent economic

evaluation methods to assess the specic

benets of CRI in each of the three case

study areas, namely the water-saving

irrigation facilities in Ningxia, the sponge

city infrastructure in Wuhan, and the

grey-green sea dikes in Shenzhen. We

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