巴克莱：美国生命科学与诊断行业Q3预览报告

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The document "Barclays - US Healthcare Sector - Q3 US Life Sciences and Diagnostic Industry Preview - 9-114 pages.pdf" provides a comprehensive overview of the Q3 outlook for the US life sciences and diagnostic industry. The report is issued by Barclays Capital Inc. and/or its affiliates, which may have conflicts of interest due to their business dealings with the companies covered in the report. Investors are advised to consider this potential conflict of interest when evaluating the objectivity of the report. The report delves into the various subsectors of the healthcare industry, including pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical technology, and diagnostics. It discusses the key drivers and challenges facing each subsector and provides insights into the potential investment opportunities and risks within the industry. The document highlights the projected performance of major companies within the life sciences and diagnostic industry and offers in-depth analysis of their financial standings, competitive positioning, and growth prospects. It also outlines the macroeconomic and regulatory factors that could impact the industry in the coming quarter. Investors are cautioned to use this report as just one of the many factors in their decision-making process and to consult with their financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The report also includes analyst certifications and important disclosures to provide transparency and ensure compliance with regulatory requirements. Overall, the "Barclays - US Healthcare Sector - Q3 US Life Sciences and Diagnostic Industry Preview" report offers a valuable and comprehensive analysis of the Q3 outlook for the US life sciences and diagnostic industry. However, investors are encouraged to exercise due diligence and consider potential conflicts of interest when using the information provided in the report.

Barclays | U.S. Life Science Tools & Diagnostics

9 October 2019 16

FIGURE 9

Agilent Income Statement

Source: Company Documents, Barclays Research

EST EST EST EST EST

Income Statement ($ Millions) 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 2019 2020 2021 2022

10/31/2017 1/31/2018 4/30/2018 7/31/2018 10/31/2018 10/31/2018 1/31/2019 4/30/2019 7/31/2019 10/31/2019 10/31/2019 10/31/2020 10/31/2021 10/31/2022

Products 3,410 930 918 907 991 3,746 980 921 949 1,019 3,869 4,160 4,375 4,607

% Growth Y/Y 5.7% 13.7% 9.0% 7.7% 9.1% 9.9% 5.4% 0.3% 4.6% 2.9% 3.3% 7.5% 5.2% 5.3%

% Growth Q/Q -72.7% -1.3% -1.2% 9.3% -73.8% -6.0% 3.0% 7.4%

Services and other 1,062 281 288 296 303 1,168 304 317 325 320 1,266 1,394 1,504 1,624

% Growth Y/Y 8.9% 12.9% 10.8% 8.8% 7.8% 10.0% 8.2% 10.1% 9.8% 5.5% 8.4% 10.2% 7.8% 8.0%

% Growth Q/Q -73.5% 2.5% 2.8% 2.4% -74.0% 4.3% 2.5% -1.7%

Net revenue $4,472 $1,211 $1,206 $1,203 $1,294 $4,914 $1,284 $1,238 $1,274 $1,339 $5,135 $5,555 $5,879 $6,231

% Growth Y/Y 6.4% 13.5% 9.4% 8.0% 8.8% 9.9% 6.0% 2.7% 5.9% 3.5% 4.5% 8.2% 5.8% 6.0%

% Growth Ex-FX 6.9% 10.1% 4.5% 6.4% 10.1% 7.8% 8.3% 5.8% 7.7% 4.8% 6.6% 9.0% 5.8% 6.0%

% Organic Growth 6.6% 9.7% 4.3% 5.9% 8.6% 7.1% 6.1% 3.9% 6.2% 2.3% 4.6% 5.7% 5.8% 6.0%

% Growth Q/Q 1.9% -0.4% -0.2% 7.6% -0.8% -3.6% 2.9% 5.1%

Cost of products ex-Dep./Comp 1,282 334 350 328 356 1,368 359 345 350 365 1,419 1,500 1,561 1,626

% of Product Revenue 37.6% 35.9% 38.1% 36.2% 35.9% 36.5% 36.6% 37.5% 36.9% 35.8% 36.7% 36.1% 35.7% 35.3%

% of Product Revenue inc. Dep./Comp 40.8% 39.5% 41.2% 39.5% 39.0% 39.7% 39.8% 40.8% 40.5% 38.9% 40.0% 39.3% 39.0% 38.6%

Cost of services and other 594 155 160 163 161 639 163 169 171 176 679 767 827 893

% of Service Revenue 55.9% 55.2% 55.6% 55.1% 53.1% 54.7% 53.6% 53.3% 52.6% 55.0% 53.6% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0%

Gross Profit $2,596 $722 $696 $712 $777 $2,907 $762 $724 $753 $799 $3,037 $3,288 $3,491 $3,712

% of Revenue 58.0% 59.6% 57.7% 59.2% 60.0% 59.2% 59.3% 58.5% 59.1% 59.6% 59.1% 59.2% 59.4% 59.6%

% Gross Margin inc. Dep/Comp 55.6% 56.9% 55.4% 56.7% 57.7% 56.7% 56.9% 56.0% 56.4% 57.2% 56.7% 56.7% 56.9% 57.1%

R&D less Stock-Based Comp 333 89 91 96 100 376 100 95 98 105 398 429 450 473

% R&D of Revenue 7.4% 7.3% 7.5% 8.0% 7.7% 7.7% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 7.9% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 7.6%

% Growth Y/Y 4.7% 11.3% 11.0% 12.9% 16.3% 12.9% 12.4% 4.5% 2.2% 5.2% 6.0% 7.7% 5.0% 5.0%

% Growth Y/Y ex-FX 5.2% 7.9% 6.1% 11.3% 17.5% 10.8% 14.6% 7.6% 4.1% 6.5% 8.1% 8.5% 5.0% 5.0%

SG&A less Stock-Based Comp 1,133 307 307 307 312 1,233 315 315 317 323 1,270 1,352 1,406 1,462

% SG&A ex-comp Revenue 25.3% 25.4% 25.5% 25.5% 24.1% 25.1% 24.5% 25.4% 24.9% 24.2% 24.7% 24.3% 23.9% 23.5%

% Growth Y/Y 4.9% 13.7% 8.9% 8.1% 5.1% 8.8% 2.6% 2.5% 3.3% 3.7% 3.0% 6.4% 4.0% 4.0%

% Growth Y/Y ex-FX 5.4% 10.3% 4.0% 6.5% 6.3% 6.7% 4.8% 5.7% 5.1% 5.0% 5.1% 7.2% 4.0% 4.0%

Total Stock-Based Comp 61 31 12 13 15 71 24 16 18 15 73 80 85 90

% Stock Comp 1.4% 2.6% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% 1.9% 1.3% 1.4% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

Total SG&A 1,194 338 319 320 327 1,304 339 331 335 339 1,343 1,432 1,491 1,552

% SG&A of Revenue 26.7% 27.9% 26.5% 26.6% 25.3% 26.5% 26.4% 26.7% 26.3% 25.3% 26.2% 25.8% 25.4% 24.9%

% Growth Y/Y 4.7% 16.2% 7.4% 8.1% 5.5% 9.2% 0.3% 3.7% 4.5% 3.7% 3.0% 6.6% 4.1% 4.1%

Adj. EBITDA $1,069 $295 $286 $296 $350 $1,227 $323 $298 $320 $354 $1,295 $1,427 $1,550 $1,687

% EBITDA Margin 23.9% 24.4% 23.7% 24.6% 27.0% 25.0% 25.2% 24.1% 25.1% 26.5% 25.2% 25.7% 26.4% 27.1%

% Growth Y/Y 12.2% 19.4% 8.3% 13.8% 17.4% 14.8% 9.5% 4.2% 8.1% 1.3% 5.6% 10.1% 8.6% 8.9%

Depreciation 95 26 25 27 27 105 26 27 30 28 111 117 123 131

% of Net Revenue 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

Adj Operating Income (EBIT) $974 $269 $261 $269 $323 $1,122 $297 $271 $290 $326 $1,184 $1,310 $1,426 $1,557

% EBIT Margin 21.8% 22.2% 21.6% 22.4% 25.0% 22.8% 23.1% 21.9% 22.8% 24.4% 23.1% 23.6% 24.3% 25.0%

% Growth Y/Y 13.4% 20.6% 8.3% 14.0% 17.9% 15.2% 10.4% 3.8% 7.8% 1.0% 5.6% 10.6% 8.9% 9.1%

Interest income 22 9 10 9 10 38 10 10 10 6 36 22 24 26

% of Invested Assets 0.84% 1.28% 1.32% 1.14% 1.82% 1.48% 1.73% 1.87% 1.78% 1.25% 1.78% 1.21% 1.27% 1.39%

% Interest Income 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

Interest expense (79) (20) (19) (18) (18) (75) (18) (17) (18) (19) (72) (100) (104) (108)

% of Debt Obligations 4.03% 3.98% 3.54% 3.40% 4.00% 3.94% 4.00% 3.78% 4.00% 4.20% 3.32% 3.95% 4.10% 4.25%

% Interest Expense -1.8% -1.7% -1.6% -1.5% -1.4% -1.5% -1.4% -1.4% -1.4% -1.4% -1.4% -1.8% -1.8% -1.7%

Gain on Sale 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other income (expense), net 21.0 5.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 17.0 6.0 9.0 6.0 7.5 28.5 30.0 30.0 30.0

Other Income % of Revs 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

Pre-Tax Income $938 $263 $258 $263 $318 $1,102 $295 $273 $288 $321 $1,177 $1,262 $1,377 $1,505

% Pre-Tax Margin 21.0% 21.7% 21.4% 21.9% 24.6% 22.4% 23.0% 22.1% 22.6% 24.0% 22.9% 22.7% 23.4% 24.2%

% Growth Y/Y 16.7% 24.1% 11.7% 15.4% 19.1% 17.5% 12.2% 5.8% 9.5% 0.9% 6.8% 7.2% 9.1% 9.3%

Provision for income taxes 169 48 46 47 57 198 50 45 48 54 197 214 234 256

% Tax Rate 18.0% 18.3% 17.8% 17.9% 17.9% 18.0% 16.9% 16.5% 16.7% 16.8% 16.7% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0%

Adj. Net Income $769 $215 $212 $216 $261 $904 $245 $228 $240 $267 $980 $1,047 $1,143 $1,250

% Net Margin 17.2% 17.8% 17.6% 18.0% 20.2% 18.4% 19.1% 18.4% 18.8% 19.9% 19.1% 18.9% 19.4% 20.1%

% Growth Y/Y 18.1% 25.0% 13.4% 13.1% 19.2% 17.6% 14.0% 7.5% 11.1% 2.3% 8.4% 6.9% 9.1% 9.3%

Weighted average shares:

Basic Shares 322 323 322 320 319 321 318 317 312 309 314 304 297 287

Diluted Shares 326 327 326 324 322 325 322 321 316 313 318 308 301 291

Adj. Net income per share:

Adj. Basic EPS $2.39 $0.67 $0.66 $0.68 $0.82 $2.82 $0.77 $0.72 $0.77 $0.86 $3.12 $3.44 $3.85 $4.36

Adj. Diluted EPS $2.36 $0.66 $0.65 $0.67 $0.81 $2.79 $0.76 $0.71 $0.76 $0.85 $3.08 $3.40 $3.80 $4.30

% Growth Y/Y 19.4% 24.6% 13.0% 13.8% 20.7% 17.8% 15.7% 9.2% 13.9% 5.2% 10.7% 10.2% 11.8% 13.2%

Source: Company Documents, Barclays Research

Barclays | U.S. Life Science Tools & Diagnostics

9 October 2019 17

U.S. Life Science Tools & Diagnostics

Industry View: NEUTRAL

Agilent Technologies (A)

Stock Rating: EQUAL WEIGHT

Income statement ($mn)

2018A

2019E

2020E

2021E

CAGR

Price (08-Oct-2019)

USD 72.49

Price Target

USD 76.00

Why Equal Weight? Agilent has built a strong track

record and reputation for its operating performance,

and has developed a diverse portfolio of businesses

across instruments and diagnostics. We are cautious

around the company's end market exposure to

chemical and energy customers, though see valuation

support for the thesis at current levels.

Upside case

USD 100.00

Sustained end market strength and improved

contributions from new product cycles lead to better

growth. Capital allocation also remains an

opportunity. Our upside case of $100 reflects 20x our

upside EBITDA of $1.55 billion.

Downside case

USD 55.00

Agilent has exposure to economic activity in its end

markets which could impact growth. Notably, 25% of

sales are generated from chemical & energy

customers. Our downside case of $55 reflects 14x our

downside EBITDA of $1.25 billion.

Upside/Downside scenarios

Revenue

4,914

5,135

5,555

5,879

6.2%

EBITDA (adj)

1,227

1,295

1,427

1,550

8.1%

EBIT (adj)

1,122

1,184

1,310

1,426

8.3%

Pre-tax income (adj)

1,102

1,177

1,262

1,377

7.7%

Net income (adj)

904

980

1,047

1,143

8.1%

EPS (adj) ($)

2.79

3.08

3.40

3.80

10.9%

Diluted shares (mn)

324.8

318.0

308.4

301.0

-2.5%

DPS ($)

0.60

0.65

0.72

0.79

10.0%

Margin and return data

Average

Gross margin (%)

56.7

56.9

56.7

EBITDA (adj) margin (%)

25.0

25.2

25.7

26.4

25.6

EBIT (adj) margin (%)

22.8

23.1

23.6

24.3

23.4

Pre-tax (adj) margin (%)

22.4

22.9

22.7

23.4

22.9

Net (adj) margin (%)

18.4

19.1

18.9

19.4

18.9

ROIC (%)

22.4

20.1

18.4

20.0

20.2

ROA (%)

10.7

10.8

10.7

11.3

10.9

ROE (%)

19.9

19.8

21.0

22.3

20.7

Balance sheet and cash flow ($mn)

CAGR

Tangible fixed assets

822

833

797

765

-2.4%

Intangible fixed assets

491

511

1.3%

Cash and equivalents

2,247

1,613

1,759

1,882

-5.7%

Total assets

8,541

9,604

9,929

10,214

6.1%

Short and long-term debt

1,799

2,533

12.1%

Other long-term liabilities

N/A

Total liabilities

3,970

4,735

4,893

5,027

8.2%

Net debt/(funds)

-516

816

663

533

N/A

Shareholders' equity

4,567

4,869

5,036

5,187

4.3%

Change in working capital

455

-371

-59

-62

N/A

Cash flow from operations

1,087

1,041

1,144

1,248

4.7%

Capital expenditure

-177

-172

-181

-192

N/A

Free cash flow

910

869

963

1,056

5.1%

Valuation and leverage metrics

Average

P/E (adj) (x)

26.0

23.5

21.3

19.1

22.5

EV/sales (x)

4.5

4.6

4.2

3.9

4.3

EV/EBITDA (adj) (x)

18.1

16.4

15.0

16.9

EV/EBIT (adj) (x)

19.8

17.8

16.3

18.4

FCF yield (%)

4.1

3.7

4.1

4.6

4.1

Dividend yield (%)

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.0

Net debt/EBITDA (adj) (x)

-0.4

0.6

0.5

0.3

Selected operating metrics

Average

SG&A/sales (%)

26.5

26.2

25.8

25.4

26.0

R&D/sales (%)

7.7

7.8

7.7

R&D growth (%)

12.9

6.0

7.7

5.0

7.9

SG&A growth (%)

9.2

3.0

6.6

4.1

5.7

Source: Company data, Barclays Research

Note: FY End Oct

Barclays | U.S. Life Science Tools & Diagnostics

9 October 2019 18

2. Avantor (AVTR) – Overweight/Neutral, $22 PT

Shares of Avantor have been under a lot of pressure since the end of 2Q19, -24% since

6/30/2019 vs -7% for the Life Science Tools peer group (priced as of 10/4/2019). We

attribute the weakness to six factors which have created almost the perfect storm of

uncertainty for a new public company. Ultimately, given differentiated biopharma

exposure and a long runway for synergy capture, we view the thesis as attractive on the

pullback and reiterate our Overweight rating.

1) Commentary on Europe and Macro: At an industry conference on 9/10/2019, CFO Tom

Szlosek issued what was perceived to be cautionary commentary on the European end

market. Specifically, he said, “Asia has been double-digits for us and continues to be the

leader amongst the regions, but it's small, it's 5% of the business… I would say that putting

aside some comparability issues in the Americas, that growth continues to hold up nicely. I

think we have a bit of a moderation on the Europe side. I mean all of the issues in Europe are

well-chronicled. I think some of the macro factors are starting to show up a little bit. And so

you probably wouldn't expect 6% to continue over the second half of the year for us but

that's sort of the landscape that we're dealing with.” Ultimately, Europe is an important

end market at 36% of sales. That said, versus peers, we like Avantor’s outsized exposure

to the biopharma end market (almost 50% of sales) and diversified customer mix, which

we believe should enable the company to outperform vs peers.

2) Tough 3Q19 Comp: Avantor has a difficult comparison in 3Q19. The company posted

9% organic growth in 3Q18, which included some chunky orders with academic customers

and in the US. We have forecast 3.7% organic growth in 3Q19, and our revenue forecast

of $1.52bn is 1% below the Street.

8-K announcement from 9/24

: Avantor announced that COO Bjorn Hofman is

resigning, and his responsibilities will be transitioned to EVP Europe Frederic

Vanderhaegen and EVP of Ops & Supply Chain Tanya Foxe. While it is not a great look to

have the company’s COO resign so soon after the May 2019 IPO, the company clarified that

Hofman is joining private equity sponsor New Mountain Capital in an operating role.

4) Broader weakness amongst recent IPOs: Following some uncertainty in the capital

markets environment, several recent IPOs have come under pressure – and Avantor is no

different.

5) Leverage magnifying downside risk in market volatility: Avantor’s leverage was 5.0x at

2Q19 including run-rate synergies, which is higher than the peer group. In good times, that

leverage can magnify upside potential for the stock. Though with recent volatility, we

believe this leverage has magnified downside pressure.

6) Upcoming lock-up expiry: Following the May 2019 IPO, Avantor’s private equity

sponsors were restricted from selling shares for a 180-day period which expires in

November. We believe this overhang has weighed on recent share performance.

Turning to 3Q19, we forecast 3.7% organic growth and 2.0% total growth (inclusive of a

1.7% FX headwind). This represents a moderation from 8% organic growth in 1Q19 and

6% in 2Q19, due partially to a challenging comparison from order timing in 3Q18 (when the

company posted 9% organic growth). Avantor has diversified exposure across end

markets and products which improve visibility into quarterly trends. Notably, almost

50% of revenue is generated by pharmaceutical and biotech customers. Within that,

notably 10% of revenue is associated with bioproduction - where we see durable drivers of

growth for the foreseeable future. In the context of low-double digit growth in 1H19, we

view our 5% biopharma organic growth forecast for 3Q19 as potentially conservative. We

believe our forecasts across the remaining end markets also appear reasonable – with 4%

Earnings Date

: TBA

Please see from 8/7/2019,

“Avantor: Striking the Right

Chords in First Quarter Out of

the Gate”

Please see from 6/11/2019,

“Avantor: Leveraging Visibility

into Diversified Life Sciences

Growth, Initiate at OW”

Barclays | U.S. Life Science Tools & Diagnostics

9 October 2019 19

organic growth in Advanced Tech & Applied Materials (27% of sales), 1% growth in

Education & Government (17% of sales) and 2% growth in Healthcare (7% of sales). From

a product perspective, we are looking for continued traction for Avantor pushing

proprietary products relative to third party materials. Avantor’s ability to leverage the

VWR channel to capture share was a key rationale for the November 2017 merger.

Proprietary product margins are also healthier than third party goods, which should help

drive margin leverage for the company.

Working down the income statement, we forecast 100bp of operating margin expansion

to 16.1% in 3Q19. As a reminder, Avantor delivered 150bp of improvement in 1Q19 and

100bp in 2Q19. Below the line, we’re looking for updates on the company’s tax rate.

Avantor reported an adjusted tax rate of 29% in 2Q19, but management sees a path to

lower that to a range of 25-27% in 2020. Finally, using a diluted share count of 643mm,

we forecast adj. EPS of $0.16 in 3Q19 and $0.57 in 2019.

FIGURE 18

Avantor Revenue Assumptions

Source: Company Documents, Barclays Research

EST EST EST EST EST EST

Assumptions ($MM) 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 2019 2020 2021 2022

3/31/2018 6/30/2018 9/30/2018 12/31/2018 12/31/2018 3/31/2019 6/30/2019 9/30/2019 12/31/2019 12/31/2019 12/31/2020 12/31/2021 12/31/2022

Days in Period 90 91 92 92 365 90 91 92 92 365 366 365 365

Workdays in Period 65 65 65 66 261 64 65 66 66 261 262 261 260

Change in Workdays Y/Y -1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% -0.4% -0.4%

Segment Revenues

Proprietary Materials & Consumables $458.2 $488.8 $493.1 $493.8 $1,933.9 $487.7 $519.0 $504.2 $526.1 $2,037.0 $2,160.3 $2,289.9 $2,427.3

% Growth Y/Y 6.4% 6.2% 2.3% 6.5% 5.3% 6.1% 6.0% 6.0%

% Growth Y/Y ex-FX 10.1% 8.5% 4.0% 9.0% 7.9% 6.5% 6.0% 6.0%

% of Total Revenue 32.3% 33.1% 33.0% 33.5% 33.0% 33.0% 33.9% 33.1% 33.7% 33.4% 33.7% 33.9% 34.1%

Third Party Materials & Consumables $599.2 $594.0 $575.3 $567.5 $2,336.0 $605.2 $594.8 $576.7 $598.9 $2,375.6 $2,483.5 $2,607.7 $2,738.0

% Growth Y/Y 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 5.5% 1.7% 4.5% 5.0% 5.0%

% Growth Y/Y ex-FX 4.6% 2.5% 2.0% 8.0% 4.3% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

% of Total Revenue 42.2% 40.2% 38.5% 38.5% 39.8% 40.9% 38.8% 37.9% 38.3% 39.0% 38.8% 38.6% 38.5%

Services & Specialty Procurement $153.9 $180.1 $179.3 $176.9 $690.2 $168.4 $198.4 $188.7 $190.2 $745.7 $779.7 $818.7 $859.6

% Growth Y/Y 9.4% 10.2% 5.3% 7.5% 8.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.0%

% Growth Y/Y ex-FX 13.1% 12.5% 7.0% 10.0% 10.6% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

% of Total Revenue 10.9% 12.2% 12.0% 12.0% 11.8% 11.4% 12.9% 12.4% 12.2% 12.2% 12.2% 12.1% 12.1%

Equipment & Instrumentation $207.0 $215.0 $246.5 $235.8 $904.3 $218.8 $220.2 $254.0 $246.5 $939.4 $982.3 $1,031.4 $1,082.9

% Growth Y/Y 5.7% 2.4% 3.0% 4.5% 3.9% 4.6% 5.0% 5.0%

% Growth Y/Y ex-FX 9.3% 4.8% 4.8% 7.0% 6.4% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

% of Total Revenue 14.6% 14.5% 16.5% 16.0% 15.4% 14.8% 14.4% 16.7% 15.8% 15.4% 15.3% 15.3% 15.2%

Total Revenues $1,418.3 $1,477.9 $1,494.2 $1,473.9 $5,864.3 $1,480.1 $1,532.4 $1,523.6 $1,561.6 $6,097.8 $6,405.7 $6,747.6 $7,107.9

% Growth Y/Y 370.1% 4.4% 3.7% 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.3% 5.3%

% FX Impact -3.6% -2.4% -1.7% -2.5% -2.5% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0%

% Growth Y/Y ex-FX 8.0% 6.0% 3.7% 8.4% 6.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3%

% Acquired Contribution 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

% Organic Growth Y/Y 9.0% 8.0% 6.0% 3.7% 8.4% 6.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3%

Revenue by End Market

Biopharma $695.0 $724.2 $732.2 $722.2 $2,873.5 $753.0 $779.5 $753.9 $779.6 $3,066.1 $3,266.8 $3,490.2 $3,728.9

% Growth Y/Y 8.4% 7.6% 3.0% 8.0% 6.7% 6.5% 6.8% 6.8%

% Growth Y/Y ex-FX 12.0% 10.0% 4.7% 10.4% 9.2% 7.0% 6.8% 6.8%

% of Total Revenue 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 49.0% 50.9% 50.9% 49.5% 49.9% 50.3% 51.0% 51.7% 52.5%

Healthcare $99.3 $103.5 $104.6 $103.2 $410.5 $98.6 $97.9 $104.6 $107.3 $408.4 $429.0 $451.9 $476.0

% Growth Y/Y -0.6% -5.4% 0.0% 4.0% -0.5% 5.1% 5.3% 5.3%

% Growth Y/Y ex-FX 3.0% -3.0% 1.7% 6.4% 2.0% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3%

% of Total Revenue 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 6.7% 6.4% 6.9% 6.9% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7%

Education & Government $241.1 $251.2 $254.0 $250.6 $996.9 $246.8 $262.9 $251.4 $260.5 $1,021.6 $1,047.6 $1,077.3 $1,107.9

% Growth Y/Y 2.4% 4.6% -1.0% 4.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.8% 2.8%

% Growth Y/Y ex-FX 6.0% 7.0% 0.7% 6.4% 5.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8%

% of Total Revenue 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 16.7% 17.2% 16.5% 16.7% 16.8% 16.4% 16.0% 15.6%

Advanced Tech & Applied Materials $383.0 $399.0 $403.4 $398.0 $1,583.4 $381.6 $392.1 $413.8 $414.3 $1,601.8 $1,662.3 $1,728.2 $1,795.1

% Growth Y/Y -0.3% -1.7% 2.6% 4.1% 1.2% 3.8% 4.0% 3.9%

% Growth Y/Y ex-FX 3.3% 0.6% 4.3% 6.6% 3.7% 4.2% 4.0% 3.9%

% of Total Revenue 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 25.8% 25.6% 27.2% 26.5% 26.3% 26.0% 25.6% 25.3%

Barclays | U.S. Life Science Tools & Diagnostics

9 October 2019 20

FIGURE 19

Avantor Income Statement

Source: Company Documents, Barclays Research

EST EST EST EST EST EST EST EST EST EST

Income Statement ($MM) 2018 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 2019 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 2020 2021 2022

Revenue $5,864.3 $1,480.1 $1,532.4 $1,523.6 $1,561.6 $6,097.8 $1,547.6 $1,607.5 $1,603.0 $1,647.6 $6,405.7 $6,747.6 $7,107.9

% Growth Y/Y 370.1% 4.4% 3.7% 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.6% 4.9% 5.2% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.3%

% Growth Y/Y ex-FX 8.0% 6.0% 3.7% 8.4% 6.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3%

% Organic Growth Y/Y 8.0% 6.0% 3.7% 8.4% 6.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3%

% Growth Q/Q 0.4% 3.5% -0.6% 2.5% -0.9% 3.9% -0.3% 2.8%

Cost of Revenues (ex-Dep) 3,962.3 986.0 1,019.9 1,014.3 1,047.6 4,067.8 1,023.2 1,061.9 1,059.1 1,097.0 4,241.2 4,454.1 4,677.7

% of Revenue 67.6% 66.6% 66.6% 66.6% 67.1% 66.7% 66.1% 66.1% 66.1% 66.6% 66.2% 66.0% 65.8%

% of Revenue (inc. Dep) 69.0% 67.9% 68.2% 67.8% 68.3% 68.0% 67.3% 67.3% 67.3% 67.8% 67.4% 67.2% 67.0%

Gross Profit $1,902.1 $494.1 $512.5 $509.3 $514.1 $2,030.0 $524.4 $545.7 $543.8 $550.6 $2,164.5 $2,293.5 $2,430.2

% Gross Margin 32.4% 33.4% 33.4% 33.4% 32.9% 33.3% 33.9% 33.9% 33.9% 33.4% 33.8% 34.0% 34.2%

% Gross Margin (inc. Dep) 31.0% 32.1% 31.8% 32.2% 31.7% 32.0% 32.7% 32.7% 32.7% 32.2% 32.6% 32.8% 33.0%

SG&A Expenses 959.7 247.2 245.0 246.0 246.0 984.2 243.6 241.1 242.8 243.6 971.1 993.8 1,031.9

% of Revenue 16.4% 16.7% 16.0% 16.1% 15.8% 16.1% 15.7% 15.0% 15.1% 14.8% 15.2% 14.7% 14.5%

% Growth Y/Y 277.5% -2.6% 5.7% 2.0% 6.0% 2.6% -1.4% -1.6% -1.3% -1.0% -1.3% 2.3% 3.8%

Adj. EBITDA w/ Other Income $945.3 $248.0 $268.8 $263.3 $268.1 $1,048.2 $280.7 $304.6 $301.0 $307.1 $1,193.4 $1,299.7 $1,398.2

% EBITDA Margin 16.1% 16.8% 17.5% 17.3% 17.2% 17.2% 18.1% 18.9% 18.8% 18.6% 18.6% 19.3% 19.7%

% Growth Y/Y 14.3% 13.0% 3.3% 13.7% 10.9% 13.2% 13.3% 14.3% 14.5% 13.9% 8.9% 7.6%

Adj. EBITDA $942.4 $246.9 $267.5 $263.3 $268.1 $1,045.8 $280.7 $304.6 $301.0 $307.1 $1,193.4 $1,299.7 $1,398.2

% EBITDA Margin 16.1% 16.7% 17.5% 17.3% 17.2% 17.2% 18.1% 18.9% 18.8% 18.6% 18.6% 19.3% 19.7%

% Growth Y/Y 13.8% 12.4% 6.4% 11.7% 11.0% 13.7% 13.9% 14.3% 14.5% 14.1% 8.9% 7.6%

Depreciation 83.2 19.7 24.7 18.3 18.7 81.4 18.6 19.3 19.2 19.8 76.9 81.0 85.3

% of Revenue 1.4% 1.3% 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%

Adj. Operating Income (EBIT) $859.2 $227.2 $242.8 $245.0 $249.3 $964.3 $262.2 $285.3 $281.8 $287.3 $1,116.5 $1,218.7 $1,312.9

% EBIT Margin 14.7% 15.4% 15.8% 16.1% 16.0% 15.8% 16.9% 17.7% 17.6% 17.4% 17.4% 18.1% 18.5%

% Growth Y/Y 14.9% 11.3% 8.7% 14.5% 12.2% 15.4% 17.5% 15.0% 15.2% 15.8% 9.2% 7.7%

Interest Expense, net (523.8) (128.6) (115.1) (99.1) (97.8) (440.7) (96.0) (94.1) (92.2) (90.4) (372.8) (339.1) (304.2)

% of Revenues 8.9% 8.7% 7.5% 6.5% 6.3% 7.2% 6.2% 5.9% 5.8% 5.5% 5.8% 5.0% 4.3%

% Annualized of Debt Obligations 7.46% 7.57% 8.65% 7.45% 7.45% 7.34% 7.55% 7.55% 7.55% 7.55% 7.63% 7.73% 7.93%

Other Income (Expense), net 2.9 1.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

% of Revenues 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

% Annualized of Investments 1.57% 3.06% 3.16% 0.00% 0.00% 1.52% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Pre-Tax Income $338.2 $99.7 $129.0 $145.9 $151.5 $526.1 $166.1 $191.1 $189.5 $196.9 $743.7 $879.6 $1,008.7

% Growth Y/Y 43.6% 47.0% 42.0% 93.5% 55.5% 66.7% 48.2% 29.9% 30.0% 41.4% 18.3% 14.7%

% Pre-Tax Margin 5.8% 6.7% 8.4% 9.6% 9.7% 8.6% 10.7% 11.9% 11.8% 12.0% 11.6% 13.0% 14.2%

Income Tax Benefit (Provision) (78.0) (31.5) (37.4) (45.2) (47.0) (161.1) (50.7) (58.3) (57.8) (60.1) (226.8) (263.9) (295.6)

% Tax Rate 23.1% 31.6% 29.0% 31.0% 31.0% 30.6% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.5% 30.0% 29.3%

Adj. Net Income $260.2 $68.2 $91.6 $100.7 $104.5 $365.0 $115.5 $132.8 $131.7 $136.9 $516.9 $615.7 $713.2

% Y/Y Growth 102.0% 43.8% 59.8% -9.8% 138.1% 40.3% 69.4% 45.0% 30.9% 30.9% 41.6% 19.1% 15.8%

% Net Margin 4.4% 4.6% 6.0% 6.6% 6.7% 6.0% 7.5% 8.3% 8.2% 8.3% 8.1% 9.1% 10.0%

Diluted Shares 642.7 642.7 643.0 643.2 642.9 645.2 645.5 645.7 646.0 645.6 648.3 651.1

Adj. EPS $0.11 $0.14 $0.16 $0.16 $0.57 $0.18 $0.21 $0.20 $0.21 $0.80 $0.95 $1.10

% Y/Y Growth 68.7% 44.4% 30.3% 30.4% 41.0% 18.6% 15.3%

GAAP Net Income ($87.3) ($6.2) $20.6 $23.1 $43.9 $81.4 $59.5 $76.9 $75.8 $80.9 $293.0 $396.5 $491.7

GAAP EPS ($0.01) $0.03 $0.04 $0.07 $0.13 $0.09 $0.12 $0.12 $0.13 $0.45 $0.61 $0.76

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