经济复苏下的商品短缺：拜登6万亿预算的风险与10只股票的投资机会

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"Barron's - 31.05.2021.pdf" 这篇Barron's杂志的文章主要关注了2021年5月31日全球经济面临的一个重要问题——“万物短缺”（The Everything Shortage）。随着经济复苏，全球正面临着多种商品的供应短缺。这一现象不仅对市场，也对各行业和政策制定者带来了重大挑战。文章提到了拜登政府的6万亿美元预算计划，并讨论了其中的风险。在经济快速起飞之际，世界正在消耗大量商品，包括原材料、中间产品以及消费品。这种短缺情况可能会影响到供应链的稳定，推高价格，并可能导致通货膨胀压力上升。文章指出，投资者应该关注这一动态，并考虑投资那些可能从中受益的公司。在第20页，列出了10只股票作为应对短缺现象的投资选择。此外，文章还提及了能源行业的变化。Exxon Mobil的股价自去年12月一家激进对冲基金介入后大幅上涨，而欧洲的主要石油公司如BP和Royal Dutch Shell在2020年削减股息后表现落后。这反映了市场对能源公司的重新评估，以及在环保和可持续性方面日益增长的关注。 Barron's作为知名的财经杂志，其内容通常涵盖广泛，包括市场分析、投资策略、公司新闻等。此期杂志还包括了Review & Preview、Mailbag、Inside Scoop等常规栏目，提供读者深入洞察全球经济和市场的动态。通过Chartsing the Market和Market View，读者可以获取到最新的市场趋势和图表分析，帮助决策投资方向。同时，Research Reports和Winners and Losers则提供了个股的详细分析和表现评估。这篇文章提醒投资者注意全球经济复苏带来的供需不平衡问题，以及在特定行业中可能存在的投资机会。同时，能源行业的变化也为投资者提供了思考企业战略调整和行业发展趋势的重要线索。

12 BARRON’S May 31, 2021

FOLLOW-UP

ord Motor CEO Jim Farley

earns an “A” for his first seven-

plus months on the job.

The reason comes do wn to one

word: speed. Far ley has rolled out

new electric vehicles—and plans

for other EVs—faster than any one

expected. He rev ersed prior management’s

strategy for batteries and is pouring billions

into their production. He also plans new

way s to connect and service all of Ford’s

commercial vehicles.

While the pace of change is breathtak-

ing, Ford stock (ticker: F) has kept up,

making investors happy. Ford shares were

$6.75 on Farley’s first day. Now they’re

approaching $15, a gain of around 120%.

Barron’s recommended the stock in late

November 2020, believing new manage-

ment could improve margins and build a

credible EV strategy. Ford’s long-term op-

erating profit margin goal is 8%, about

double the level in 2019. Since our article

ran, Ford stock is up about 64%, while the

S&P 500 and Dow are both up roughly

15%. General Motors (GM), benefiting

from the same post-Covid auto-industry

recovery, has risen about 33%.

Ford has been particularly busy in the

past two weeks. It unveiled its all-electric

F-150 Lightning pickup on May 19, and

nailed it. The company recently said that

about 70,000 people had plunk ed do wn

refundable $100 deposits for the vehicle.

The truck’s killer app is its ability to provid e

three da ys of backup pow er for a house. The

front trunk—aka “frunk”—serving as a

giant cooler isn’t a bad idea either. Even

more important than tailgating potential is

CEO Revs Up

Ford’s Stock

And Prospects

Jim Farley quickly reshapes EV

strategy. Investors like what they see.

By AL ROOT

The Lightning could add voltage to Ford sales.

the price. The base tab for a Lightning

should be about $40,000—the same as for

the coming Tesla (TSLA) Cybertruck and

less than the Endurance picku p from start-

up Lordstown Motor (RIDE).

With that starting price, profit margins

could be a concern for investors. EVs cost

more upfront than gasoline-powered vehi-

cles because batteries and electric motors

are more expensive than an engine and gas

tank. Trucks are critical for Ford; they

generate most of its profits. The company,

however, contends that EVs can be more

profitable than conventional vehicles.

Manufacturing scale is the key to profit-

ability. Ford is targeting 40% of its sales to

be from battery-electric vehicles by 2030.

That’s roughly two million EVs. The Dear-

born, Mich., manufacturer also plans to

capture recurring service sales by connect-

ing its commercial vehicles with software

and maintenance packages. In addition, a

rebate bill just cleared by a congressional

panel could be a boon for EVs, especially

those made in the U.S.

Ford believ es that controlling battery

production will help curb costs. It has an-

nounced a partnership with SK Innova tion

(096 77 0.Korea ) to build facili ties that could

satisfy all of its battery needs by 2030.

Still, a lot of hope is embedded in Ford’s

stock price. The company now plans to

spend a cumulative $30 billion on electric

vehicles by 2025—up from a prior target of

$22 billion. To justify that, Ford will have

to sell and service a lot of EVs through its

existing dealer networks, a major chal-

lenge for Farley & Co.

So, Ford has a long wa y to go before the

race is won. A CEO’s tenure isn ’t a sprint

do wn a quarter-mile drag strip. It’s more

lik e the 24 hours of Le Mans. Farley kno ws

it. He said this past Wednesday that it’s

“ show, not tell, time for the Ford team.”

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May 31, 2021 BARRON’S 13

implicated in climate change.

Gone are the days when oil compa-

nies could delay responding to calls

for change, or implementing it at a

slow and cautious pace. For Exxon, in

particular, the defeat could lead to a

reorientation. For years, the company

has behaved as though hydrocarbons

will remain the cornerstone of the

world’s energy plans indefinitely—and

it has spent accordingly, shelling out

enormous sums to find and develop

new oil and gas prospects around the

globe. Wednesday’s shareholder vote

suggests that Exxon will now begin

planning more seriously for a future

without oil, even if that future still

is a long way off.

Exxon’s capital expenditure

totaled $21.4 billion in 2020, down

nearly $10 billion from 2019’s, but

only $4 billion below 2018’s outlays.

Return on average capital, mean-

while, peaked in 2008 at more than

34%. Last year, as o il demand col-

lapsed amid the coronavirus pan-

demic and crude prices sank, it fell

to negative 9.3%.

Exxon also pays out about $15 bil-

lion a year in dividends. Last year,

cash flow was negative, and the com-

pany borrowed to cover the payout.

Long-term debt totaled some $47.2

billion at the end of 2020, more than

double the $20.5 billion on the books

at the end of 2018.

In the short term, preserving its

dividend yield—now almost 6%—has

looked like the right move for Exxon.

Its shares returned 27% in the past 12

months, while European supermajors,

such as Shell and BP (BP), saw their

shares sink after they cut their pay-

outs in 2020. Longer term, however,

Exxon has been no winner: The stock

has returned just 0.5% a year in the

past decade, including reinvested divi-

dends, lagging behind the S&P 500

index’s 14.5% average annual return

and rival Chevron’s 4.1%.

It is this sort of poor performance

that attracted Engine No. 1, which

was launched in December 2020 by

Chris James with roughly $250 mil-

lion. The fund bought 0.02% of

Exxon’s shares. In Februar y, it sent

a letter to Exxon’s board, stating that

the o il giant needs a “more disci-

plined capital allocation strategy, im-

proved long-term strategic planning,

more shareholder-aligned manage-

ment compensation, and a board of

directors with the skills, experience,

and independence to make these

goals a reality.” Additionally, it

sought to unseat four Exxon direc-

tors, arguing that the board needs

fresh voices to focus on the problems

posed by climate change.

Such demands from a little-known

firm would have been laughable just

a few years ago. But some of Engine’s

board nominees won the backing of

investment titans, such as the Califor-

nia State Teachers’ Retirement Sys-

tem, or Calstrs; the Church of Eng-

land’s investment fund; the California

Public Employees’ Retirement Sys-

tem; and the New York State Com-

mon Retirement Fund. Proxy advi-

sory firms also backed some of

Engine No. 1’s nominees, as did

BlackRock (BLK), the world’s largest

asset manager, which owns 6.6% of

Exxon’s shares.

Exxon said in a statement after

Wednesda y’s vote that it looks forward

to working with the new directors. It

also acknow ledged conversa tions it has

had with shareholders about finding

low-carbon solutions, improving costs,

and boosting earnings. The company

said that it has “significantl y reduced

emissions” and has further reductions

planned. “We heard from shareholders

toda y about their desire to further

these efforts, and we are well posi-

tioned to respond,” said Darren

Woods, Exxon’ s chairman and CEO.

Exxon didn’t respond to Bar ron’s

requests for comment. However, in

a Barron’s interview in early May,

Woods defended the qualifications of

Exxon’s current board members and

the company’s “long history” in car-

bon capture and storage and hydro-

gen technologies.

ow, Exxon—and Chevron and

Shell—have more motivation

to embrace the energy indus-

try’s coming transition. And

they will. While eco-friendly propos-

als were once perceived as costly dis-

tractions, investors now realize that

the cost of doing nothing in a decar-

bonizing world is potentially too

high. “We believe these events are

consistent with a pattern of increased

shareholder awareness and concern

regarding climate, [and] the potential

for inaction to raise companies’ cost

of capital and potentially inhibit or

slow value creation,” wrote James

West, an analyst at Evercore ISI,

on Thursday.

Exxon’ s shares have rallied 40%, to

$58.37, since Engine No. 1 wen t public

with its activist campaign, outpacing

a gain of 28% in the Energy Select

Sector SPDR fund (XLE). Sure, a

45% rally in crude prices has helped,

but the prospect of more capital disci-

pline and a greater focus on renewable-

energy sources also has enticed in-

vestors. Engine No. 1 won’t control

Exxon’s board, but its influence could

help the stock rise even more.

Exxon Key Data

Exxon Mobil / XOM

Recent Price $58.56

Market Value (bil) $248

52-Week Price Change 26.6%

2022E EPS $4.29

2022E P/E 13.7

2022E Return on Assets 7.4 %

Debt / Equity Ratio 0.4

Dividend Yield 5.9%

E=estimate. Source: Bloomber

Exxon’s

shares have

rallied 40%

since Engine

No.1went

public with

its activist

campaign.

Big Oil ’s Bad Week

Is Good for In vestors

By pushing Exxon Mobil and other oil giants toward more-sustainable

strategies, shareholders and regulators are strengthening the companies

ig Oil suffered a triple

setback on Wednesday,

but its defeat could move

the industry for ward in

ways that will benefit en-

ergy companies and their

shareholders.

Exxon Mobil (ticker: XOM) lost at

least two board seats to Engine No. 1,

an upstart investment fund bent on

improving the company’s financial

discipline and moving it toward a

net-zero emissions strategy by 2050.

On the same day, a Dutch court or-

dered European energy giant Royal

Dutch Shell (RDS.A) to slash its

carbon emissions by a net 45% by

2030. And, at Chevron’s (CVX)

annual meeting, shareholders sup-

ported a nonbinding proposal to ask

the company to cut carbon emissions

generated by the use of its products.

Carbon-dioxide emissions have been

By CARLETON ENGLISH

Photo illustration by Sarina Finkelstein; (reference) Getty Images (1); Dreamstime (1)

14 BARRON’S May 31, 2021

or two days, 100 years ago,

white mobs in Tulsa, Okla.,

burned down one of the

country’s most affluent

Black communities, killing

hundreds of people and

decimating the financial

center known as Black Wall Street.

That tragedy has left its mark on gen-

erations of Black people, including one

of the most prominent Black investors

on Wall Street today. John Rogers Jr.,

the founder of Chicago’s Ariel Invest-

ments, spoke with Barron’s about his

maternal great-grandfather, who saw

his business destroyed and narrowly

escaped with his life.

J.B. Stradford, a civil-rights leader

who owned the country’s largest

Black-owned hotel and an array of

other properties, managed to protect

his hotel on the first night with two

armed companions. But the next day,

June 1, 1921, a low-flying airplane shot

up the hotel, and mobs eventually

burned it to the ground. Other homes

and businesses were also leveled by

fire in the 35-block Greenwood dis-

trict that had thrived by being self-

sufficient in an era of segregation.

Growing up on Greenwood Avenue

in Chicago, Rogers, who founded the

first minority-owned fund firm in

1983, recalls his mother often talking

about how her father used his legal

skills to help her grandfather. The

businessman had been taken, along

with other Black Tulsans, to a deten-

tion center. He escaped by car and

eventually hopped on a train to Kan-

sas. Tulsa charged him as an instiga-

tor of the riot. He was exonerated 25

years ago.

The Tulsa Race Massacre was part

of a wave of violence that destroyed

prosperous Black communities,

thwarting wealth creation for genera-

tions. Throughout history, Rogers

says, there have been periods when

white Americans have tried to destroy

Black entrepreneurial success. “Often,

we move ahead and get pulled back

down under. We don’t have multigen-

erational wealth in our community, so

we don’t get exposed to the magic of

compound interest or learn the impor-

tance of the stock market.”

It’s a story that has play ed out across

genera tions of Black families. Rebuild-

ing the Black business ecosys tem that

made Tulsa’s Greenw ood so prosper-

ous a century ago has been difficult,

contri buting to a stubborn racial wealth

gap that is getting more attention from

policy makers, inves tors, and execu-

ti ves in the wake of the murder of

Georg e Flo yd and the disparate impact

of the pandemic.

The median net worth of a Black

household in the U.S. is $23,000, com-

pared with $184,000 for the typical

whi te family, according to the Federal

Reserv e Bank of St. Louis. Roughly

80% of Black households ha ve less

wealth than their white counterparts—

a proportion that has barely budged

since 1989, even amid progress in clos-

ing gaps in homeownership and edu-

By RE SHMA KAPADIA

The Tulsa Massacre Left a

Lasting Impact on Wealth

For fund manager John Rogers Jr., the 100-year-old tragedy remains

a vivid reminder of generations left behind. It’s also personal.

J.B. Stradford, the

great-grandfather

of Ariel Investments’

John Rogers,

was a successful

businessman whose

ventures included

the largest

Black-owned hotel

in the country.

J.B. Stradford had

his hotel burned to

the ground during

the two-day Tulsa

Race Massacre.

cation, says Ana Hernandez Kent,

senior researcher for the Institute for

Economic Equity at the Federal Re-

serve Bank of St. Louis.

A key element in building wealth

is inheritance, but the latest Ariel-

Schwab survey of Black investors

found that less than a quarter of Black

Americans said they had received an

inheritance, compared with more than

half of white Americans.

Structural inequities, from the

inability of Black Americans to get

mortgages in the past, difficulty in

getting access to capital, or the out-

right destruction of wealth in places

like Tulsa, have compounded over

generations, contributing to the

wealth gap, says Dana Peterson, chief

economist at The Conference Board.

Stradford’s wealth, had it been al-

lowed to compound over the past 100

years, Rogers says, would amount to

$100 million today for his extended

family.

here’s a growing recognition

among policy makers, business

leaders, and in vestors that such

inequities require attention—

for the health of the economy and

corporate profits, not just society. In

a report last year, Citigroup estimated

that closing racial gaps in wag es, edu-

cation, housing, and inves tmen t could

contri bute $5 trillion to U.S. gross do-

mestic product over the next fiv e years.

When thinking about how to use

the recent focus on diversity to drive

the biggest change, Rogers draws from

his great-grandfather, who tried to

hire Black Americans whenever possi-

ble, to create a virtuous wealth cycle.

That’s one reason, Rogers says, it’s

critical to build more-sustainable

Black-owned businesses.

Rogers, who sits on an array of

boards, is pushing peers to do more.

He encourages business leaders to go

beyond funding scholarships and

think about diversity when picking

financial advisors or legal counsel. He

wants executives to think about diver-

sity in more-lucrativ e professional

services, like consulting or advertis-

ing. That, he says, will go much fur-

ther in creating the type of ecosystem

that helped Black Wall Street thrive—

and will help tackle the gaps in health-

care, housing, and schools.

“All of the challeng es we continue

to face are tied to wealth,” he says.

“You can’t fix the core problems with-

out creating new vehicles to build

multigenerational wealth.”

From top, clockwise: Photograph by Kevin Serna; Courtesy of Ariel Investments; Alvin C. Krupnick Co./Library of Congress

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