"市场周期分析：高盛视角下的全球宏观观察"

需积分: 0 119 浏览量更新于2024-03-24 收藏 1.27MB PDF 举报

Goldman Sachs recently published a report titled "Where Are We in the Market Cycle?" in which they discuss the current position of the global macroeconomic landscape. The report highlights that risk assets have rebounded significantly from the losses experienced in the previous year. Despite this recovery, market sentiment appears to be less optimistic than it was a year ago. Investors are advised to consider the information provided in the report as just one of many factors when making investment decisions. It is important to take into account all available data and disclosures before making any investment choices. The report also includes a disclosure appendix for further reference. Overall, the report suggests that while risk assets have shown resilience and recovered from past losses, there is still some caution and restraint in market sentiment. The exact position in the market cycle is difficult to pinpoint, but it is clear that there is a degree of uncertainty and hesitation among investors. It is crucial for investors to remain vigilant and stay informed in order to navigate the current market landscape successfully.

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5

Top of Mind

Issue 75

But markets aren’t always about extreme ups and downs;

there are bull markets and bear markets, rises and corrections.

With that in mind, I don’t believe that we’re in a bubble, and I

don’t think we’re going to have a crash. Stock P/E ratios are

pretty much in line with the postwar average. Banks are not

highly levered. Most investing hasn’t taken place in vehicles as

highly levered as the mortgage and loan vehicles of 2006-07.

And I don’t see an analog for subprime mortgages today. So in

many ways, the current environment is less precarious than 11

or 12 years ago. But for an investor, I think the next five years

simply aren’t going to be as good as the last ten.

I don’t believe that we’re in a bubble and

I don’t think we’re going to have a crash.”

Allison Nathan: What late-cycle excesses worry you the

most?

Howard Marks: I worry about the amount of debt in the

system and about companies’ exposure to rising interest rates.

I recently wrote about what I call “the seven worst words in

the world”: too much money chasing too few deals. Demand

for credit instruments in the last few years has been very

strong, driving an influx of capital to the leveraged loan and

private lending markets. Such large capital inflows tend to drive

up prices, drive down credit standards, drive up risk, and drive

down prospective returns. I believe that generally has

happened in the credit markets. So I worry about the debt load

more than I do about, say, a collapse in stock prices.

Allison Nathan: Are credit markets the most likely cause of

the next downturn?

Howard Marks: “Cause” is a funny word. Yes, I would guess

that the next big problem in the economy will emanate from

the credit markets. But will that start the next recession? Not

necessarily. The problem might start because of a trade war or

for some other reason. One of my favorite oxymorons is that

“we’re not expecting any surprises.” But of course it’s

surprises that have the power to knock the market for a loop;

after all, very few people saw the subprime crisis coming.

I would guess that the next big problem

in the economy will emanate from the credit

markets. But will that start the next

recession? Not necessarily.”

When we learned about the Civil War, we learned about Fort

Sumter being the powder keg. Today, leverage in the system

seems to me like the area of greatest exposure, but I can’t be

sure what the powder keg will be. I’m not cavalier enough to

pretend that I know where the trouble will emerge.

Allison Nathan: The GFC was a key buying opportunity for

you. Would the limited firepower of monetary policy give

you pause before buying risky assets during the next major

downturn?

Howard Marks: It will matter if we have a severe recession. In

2007, I held five-year Treasuries that paid six-plus percent.

Today, the five-year pays two-plus percent. So by definition, the

Fed has less firepower with which to respond to a recession.

That’s bad. But the scenario that you’re describing would

otherwise probably be a good time to invest: pessimism up,

prices down, people pulling in their horns. Weighing those pros

and cons is what makes this a tough business, and that’s why

nobody gets it right all the time.

Allison Nathan: Considering the Q4 sell-off and the recent

rally, how would you rate investor optimism today? Do

expectations look more reasonable to you?

Howard Marks: I see the Q4 price action as a dash of cold

water that cooled off some enthusiasm. Credit spreads

widened and it was hard to raise money. These were positive

signs of prudence. That said, those losses have been recovered

to a large degree. So I would say that the market is chastened

but back to being somewhat optimistic.

I still see some optimism in the market

today. So I would want to be in stable, higher-

quality, and defensive assets more so than in

aggressive, optimism-oriented assets.”

Allison Nathan: So how should investors be positioned

today?

Howard Marks: To me, the key question is whether this a time

for aggressiveness or a time for caution. I believe it’s a time for

caution. Warren Buffett said it best: “The less prudence with

which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence

with which we should conduct our own affairs.” If investors are

scared, as they were in the fourth quarter of 2008 or early

2009, I believe you should be aggressive. But if investors look

like flaming optimists, then watch out. As I said, I still see

some optimism in the market today. So I would want to be in

stable, higher-quality and defensive assets more so than in

aggressive, optimism-oriented assets.

Of course, it's not all or none, buy or sell. For example, slower

growth would normally mean holding more US than non-US

assets, because the US is the more dependable economy. But

US securities are also the most expensive. Normally, caution

would call for holding more bonds than stocks. But long-term

fixed income instruments would suffer the most if rates rise.

And at least in the US, bonds are more expensive than stocks.

So the trouble is, things aren’t black and white. But overall, I

see absolutely zero reason to express the aggressiveness that

was appropriate ten years ago. The easy money has been

made for this cycle, and today's conditions call for a more

cautious portfolio.

剩余22页未读，继续阅读

qw_6918966011

粉丝: 26
资源: 6161

"市场周期分析：高盛视角下的全球宏观观察"

高盛-我们处在本轮周期的什么位置？（全球宏观）-20190204-23页.pdf

使用《高盛帝国》制作词云

大模型有哪些应用领域？

哪些公司需要算法工程师

阐述机器学习算法的应用前进

从筹资、投资、运营、分配四个方面分析北京奇虎有限公司

各种函数声明和定义模块

湖北工业大学在河南2021-2024各专业最低录取分数及位次表.pdf

1805.06605v2 DEFENSE-GAN.pdf

最新资源