828 DEVELOPMENT OF OIL PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHOD
In the proposed model, the objective of the CNN layer is to extract features, and LSTM layer is to perform
prediction. The main contributions of this work are:
1. The effectiveness of the Deep neural networks in the oil production forecasting is investigated;
2. The new architecture containing an improved Deep CNN and LSTM blocks is proposed for efficient
forecasting of the oil production in the wells;
3. Proposed model achieved high results in the forecasting process.
This paper consists of the following sections: Section 2 summarizes some of the methods used in the oil
production time series prediction. In section 3 an architecture of the proposed CNN-LSTM model is provided.
In section 4 dataset description is provided. In section 5 the results of the comparative analysis of the proposed
method with existing methods is described. In section 6 conclusion of this work is provided.
2. Related works
There are many methods involved in Deep Learning, [16, 17] which are divided into three groups: generative,
discriminative, and hybrid. Generative architectural methods include autoencoders [18], recurrent neural networks
(RNN) [19], Boltzmann machines.
Each layer of the deep network learns independently, bypassing previous pre-training procedure. It then allows
checking a good initial approach to run backpropagation algorithm. Depending on the selected model, each layer
may be RBM or CNN (Convolutional Neural Network) [20].
Boltzmann Machine (BM) is a network of symmetrically connected stochastic binary units. The units are divided
into two groups, describing visible and hidden states (analogy with hidden Markov models). The states of the visible
and the hidden neurons vary according to the probability activation functions.
Restricted BM (RBM) is a BM that has no relation between the hidden layer neurons. Due to the special bipartite
graph structure, it is possible to clearly find the probabilities of the hidden layers neurons. If a sufficient number of
neurons is used in the hidden layer, RBM can generate any discrete distribution.
RBM is a key structural unit for constructing the Deep Belief Network (DBN). DBN is a multilayer network
[21], in which the lower layers are sigmoid Belief network, and the upper layer is RBM.
Deep BM (DBM) is sometimes used in the pre-training step instead of the autoencoder. Multilayer architecture
of the DBM is the main difference from RBM.
CNN is a multilayered neural network with a special architecture to detect complex features in data. CNNs have
been used in image recognition, powering vision in robots, and for self-driving vehicles.
LSTM recurrent neural networks are capable of learning and remembering over long sequences of inputs. LSTMs
work very well if the problem has one output for every input, like time series forecasting. But LSTMs can be
challenging to use when the problem has very long input sequences and only one or a lot of outputs.
Hybrid DL architecture integrates the generative and discriminative architectures. Deep Neural Network (DNN)
can be given as an example of hybrid architecture. In [22] DNN is a cascade of fully-connected hidden layers and
often uses the RBM stack as a pre-training stage.
The main purpose of this work is to develop a method that can predict the oil production with high accuracy
using the Deep neural networks based on the debt data of wells.
The oil and gas supply chain consists of three streams: upstream, which covers the exploration, development, and
production of oil and gas; midstream, which includes the transportation of oil and gas by tanker; and downstream,
which includes the refinement and sales processes.
This paper researches the upstream level of the oil industry. The oil production processes are modeled on the
basis of hydrodynamic numerical evaluation of the processes in the reservoir, a dataset containing history data on
the creation of the oil fields, equipment characteristics, the time-varying geological characteristics of the reservoir,
well operation modes, well operation and break time.
The data required to predict oil production are divided into the following groups:
1. Time and periodicity of information recording. Determined by the recording time of the measurements.
Stat., Optim. Inf. Comput. Vol. 7, December 2019