"自动驾驶汽车对交通规划的预测与影响（英）2022"

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An article titled "Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions: Implications for Transport Planning" by Todd Alexander Litman explores the potential impact of self-driving cars on transportation systems. The author discusses how Waymo's self-driving taxis serve as a prominent example of this emerging technology and its implications for future planning and development. The article emphasizes the need for careful consideration of how autonomous vehicles will affect traffic patterns, infrastructure, and urban design. It also encourages collaboration between policymakers, transportation planners, and technology developers to ensure that self-driving cars are integrated effectively into existing transportation networks. Ultimately, the article highlights the importance of proactive planning and adaptation to maximize the benefits of autonomous vehicles while minimizing potential negative impacts on society as a whole.

Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions: Implications for Transport Planning

Victoria Transport Policy Institute

Benefits and Costs

This section describes autonomous vehicle benefits and costs.

Reduced Driver Stress, Improved Productivity and Mobility

Autonomous vehicles can reduce drivers’ stress and tedium, and increase their productivity.

They can be mobile offices and bedrooms, as illustrated below, allowing passengers to rest or

work while travelling (WSJ 2017). This reduces travel time unit costs (cost per hour). However,

for safety sake occupants should wear seatbelts, restricting use of in-vehicle beds, and like any

confined space, vehicle interiors are likely to become cluttered and dirty (Broussard 2018).

Exhibit 3 Productivity and Relaxation While Travelling

Autonomous vehicles can be mobile offices and bedrooms, allowing travelers to work and rest.

Self-driving vehicles can introduce new stresses and discomforts. Travelers may experience

“access anxiety” if vehicles are sometimes unable to reach desired destinations, for example,

due to heavy rain or snow, or if an area lacks the detailed maps required for autonomous

operation (Grush 2016). Self-driving taxi and micro-transit services will be cheaper than human-

operated taxis but offer lower service quality since there will be no drivers to help carry

packages or ensure passenger safety. To minimize cleaning and vandalism costs most surfaces

will be stainless steel and plastic, and security cameras will monitor passengers, yet they may

still encounter previous occupants’ garbage, stains and odors (Broussard 2018). Shared

autonomous rides (micro-transit) require passengers to share space with strangers, and each

additional pick-up or drop-off can impose delays, reducing speeds and reliability.

Autonomous vehicles can provide independent mobility for people who for any reason cannot

or should not drive. This directly benefits those travelers, and by improving their access to

education and employment opportunities, can increase their productivity, and reduce

chauffeuring burdens on their family members and friends. On the other hand, optimistic

predictions of autonomous vehicle benefits may cause some communities to reduce support

for public transit services which may reduce mobility options for non-drivers (Creger, Espino

and Sanchez 2019). Dedicating highway lanes for autonomous vehicle platooning may reduce

capacity for human-operated traffic, harming human-operated vehicle occupants.

Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions: Implications for Transport Planning

Victoria Transport Policy Institute

Ownership and Operating Costs

Autonomous vehicles require various equipment and services summarized in the box below.

Since failures could be deadly, autonomous vehicles will need robust and redundant

components, installed and maintained by specialists, increasing maintenance costs. Current

advanced driver assistance system sensors (cameras, radar and ultrasound) approximately

double minor collision damage costs, typically adding $3,000 to a repair bill (AAA 2018),

suggesting that autonomous vehicles will increase vehicle repair costs. Vehicle owners will

probably need to subscribe to frequent software update and navigation mapping services.

Currently, a set of optional vehicle accessories, such as remote starting, adaptive cruise control,

active lane assist and safety cameras, typically cost several thousand dollars, and subscriptions

to navigation and security services, such as OnStar and TomTom, cost $150-750 annually.

Exhibit 4 Autonomous Vehicle Equipment and Service Requirements

All Autonomous Vehicles

Shared Autonomous Vehicles

 Sensors (optical, infrared, radar, laser, etc.).

 Automated controls (steering, braking, signals, etc.)

 Software, servers and power supplies.

 Short range vehicle-to-vehicle communication

networks, plus Internet access for maps, software

upgrades and road reports.

 Software and navigation map update subscriptions.

 Critical component maintenance, repair and testing.

 Dispatching and fleet management.

 Business administration and insurance.

 Business profits.

 Security.

 Frequent cleaning and repairs.

 Delays and empty vehicle-miles for passenger

Autonomous vehicles, particularly those that are shared, will incur additional costs.

Some experts predict that electric autonomous vehicle will costs less than 5₵ per mile to

operate (ignoring all fixed costs), but this is probably an underestimate. Vehicle batteries must

be replaced approximately every 100,000 miles, which currently costs $3,000-15,000, or 3-10₵

per vehicle-mile. This may decline with production innovations, but probably not much since

future vehicles will require increasingly sophisticated batteries to maximize performance.

Electric vehicles currently pay no fuel taxes; cost-recovery road-user fees would add 5-10¢ per

vehicle-mile. Incorporating these factors increases electric vehicle operating costs to 10-25₵ per

mile, similar to fossil fuel vehicles.

What are Efficient Road User Fees?

Efficient road user fees recover roadway costs, with additional charges for congestion, crash and

pollution damages imposed on others. Government roadway expenditures total about $250 billion

annually which serves about 3,200 billion vehicle-miles, which averages about 8₵ per mile (FHWA 2016);

optimal fees are somewhat lower fees for automobiles and higher for heavy vehicles which impose

greater roadway costs. Under urban-peak conditions, decongested fees of 5-25₵ per mile are typically

required to reduce traffic volumes to roadway capacity. In addition, any electric vehicle emission fees

should be distance-based so drivers pay according to the amount they drive and the costs they impose.

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