Executive Summary
The world is interconnected through global trade on the
basis of a transportation industry striving to be more and
more efcient. Every year 62.7 trillion tonne-miles of cargo
are transported around the world. At the same time, new
technologies and automation are displacing some jobs and
creating new ones, thereby impacting employment in general.
This has led to a wide discussion about the consequences
of automation and technology and the effects that this may
have for society at large. Governments, the business sector,
trade unions, regulatory bodies and other stakeholders have
a keen interest in the discussion of what the consequences
of the Fourth Industrial Revolution will be, and how society
at large can be prepared for the transformations that may
arise from further introduction of advanced technologies
and automation.
This report is intended to address the issue of how
transportation will change as a result of more technologies
and automation. The study that provided the data for this
report is the result of intensive research conducted by an
interdisciplinary team of experts with input from academia,
industry and regulatory bodies during the last 18 months.
The research undertaken forecasts and analyses trends and
developments in all four modes of transport up to 2040 with a
special emphasis on jobs and employment.
This report is based on four pillars: a forecast of technologies;
a forecast of global trade and transport; an analysis of the
labour force involved in transport; and the development of
country proles that can be used to illustrate the local context
for the introduction of technology and automation in a specic
country. In this report, we conclude that the introduction of
automation in global transport will be evolutionary, rather than
revolutionary. While it affects mainly medium- and low-skilled
groups, technological change is impacted by local factors.
Despite high levels of automation, qualied human resources
with the right skill sets will still be needed in the foreseeable
future. This conclusion is based on four key ndings.
Economic benets, demographic trends
and safety factors are catalysts for
automation; but in many areas of global
transport the pace in the introduction of
automation will be gradual.
With the gradual pace in the introduction
of technology and the increased volume
of trade, their effects on employment
are predictable. Low- and medium-
skilled workers will be exposed to the
high risk of automation. However, the
pace of introduction and diffusion of
technologies will depend on differences
in the development stage of countries
and their comparative advantages.
Automation and technology are
inuenced by the local context. The
assessment of individual country
proles shows that countries and
regions are not at the same level of
readiness to adopt new technologies
and automation. An analysis of relevant
key factors highlights the gap between
developed and developing countries.
The increasing volume of trade leads
to more demand for transportation in
the future, while regional changes
in transportation patterns are expected.
KEY FINDINGS
1
3
2
4
This study has been undertaken in furtherance of the
purposes and objectives of the United Nations Sustainable
Development Goals. It addresses the following Sustainable
Development Goals in particular:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
xv Transport 2040 – Automation, Technology and Employment – The Future of Work / World Maritime University
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3777849
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