"2022年中期展望：投资繁荣后的选择-花旗全球财富投资"

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The Citi Global Wealth Investments Mid-Year Outlook for 2022 focuses on investing in the aftermath of a boom. The report highlights the need for cautious and strategic investment decisions in a market that may be facing uncertainty and potential risks. The document emphasizes that investment products are not FDIC insured, not CDIC insured, not government insured, and may lose value, underscoring the importance of understanding and managing investment risks. The report is structured into different sections, including an introduction to the Mid-Year Outlook for 2022, insights into the current market environment, key strategies for navigating potential challenges, and recommendations for investment opportunities. The content is designed to help investors make informed decisions and capitalize on emerging trends and opportunities. In an effort to provide accessibility to all readers, the document offers a contact number for visually impaired individuals who may need assistance in understanding the graphics included in the report. This demonstrates Citi's commitment to ensuring that all clients have access to relevant information and support. Overall, the Citi Global Wealth Investments Mid-Year Outlook for 2022 serves as a valuable resource for investors looking to navigate the evolving financial landscape. By offering insights, recommendations, and guidance, the report aims to empower individuals to make informed decisions that align with their unique financial goals and objectives.

OVERVIEW

MID-YEAR OUTLOOK 2022

CITI GLOBAL WEALTH INVESTMENTS

STEVEN WIETING

Chief Investment Strategist and Chief Economist

1.3

Investing in the

afterglow of a boom

The boom conditions of 2021 are over, but this

does not mean a recession will be forthcoming.

Amid economic uncertainty, positive actions for

portfolios are recommended.

 Following a the COVID economic collapse and boom, we now face

economic uncertainties amid geopolitical tensions, rising inflation

and slowing growth

 If the US Federal Reserve ceases tightening in time, we believe

economic expansion can be sustained, forestalling a recession

 Despite heavy declines in some technology equities, contracting

capital expenditure on technology seems improbable, unlike in the

early 2000s

 It is time to build resilient portfolios, with a focus on high-quality

investments across asset classes

OVERVIEW

MID-YEAR OUTLOOK 2022

CITI GLOBAL WEALTH INVESTMENTS

The earthquake and aftershocks that struck the

world economy in 2020 have yet to pass. An

unprecedented COVID collapse was followed by

a boom in economic activity, financial assets and

consumer prices. These rapid and exogenous

developments have left a confusing picture for

investors in 2022.

As David Bailin discusses in A new world order:

How should I invest now?, the tragedy of war

in Ukraine has intensified the challenges of a

pandemic-scarred global economy, particularly

shortages and supply chain disruption. Amid

the fading afterglow of last year’s boom, today’s

situation requires us to allocate capital differently

in a world of commodity and goods scarcity.

Jan 2022 = 100

Durable demandDiscretionary demand

Jan ‘21 Apr ‘21 Jul ‘21 Oct ‘21 Jan ‘22 Apr ‘22

135

105

120

Source: Haver and Office of the Chief Investment Strategist, as

of 18 May 2022. All forecasts are expressions of opinion, are

subject to change without notice, and are not intended to be a

guarantee of future events.

Chart shows performance of “discretionary” and “durable” demand industries. Discretionary demand industries are household

durables, specialty retail, textiles, apparel & luxury goods, residential REITs, hotels, restaurants & leisure, financials and airlines.

Durable demand industries are food, beverage & tobacco, energy, utilities, healthcare and telecommunication services. Source: Haver

Analytics and Bloomberg, as of 15 May 2022. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Real results may vary. Indices are

unmanaged. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. They are shown for illustrative purposes only.

Figure 1. Then and now:

Our real GDP forecasts (%)

Figure 2. Durable demand, equity resilence

During the first half of 2022, rapidly rising

interest rates left investors more uncertain as to

how to value financial assets. The rough doubling

in government bond yields in the past twelve

months has restored higher quality fixed income

to a more appropriate yield level for the first time

in several years.

Given a slowing cyclical backdrop, we see a much

more compelling opportunity in fixed income

assets for both overall portfolio construction and

to earn income on surplus cash – see Beat the

cash thief: Bonds are back and Our positioning.

exogenous shocks from the economy’s normal

business cycle. Policymakers have treated both

the COVID collapse and recovery with the same

medicine, excessive stimulus and potentially

excessive tightening. In our view, central bankers

are now running their enormous monetary

stimulus of 2020-2021 “in reverse.” Slower growth

is upon us even before the Fed raises rates again

this summer. We have revised our real global

GDP forecast about a full percentage point lower

for both 2022 and 2023 – FIGURE 1. Commodity

shortages have – and will – restrain growth and

raise inflation. But there are countervailing

factors at play, too.

Unintended side-effects

The Federal Reserve’s macroeconomic strategy

has, so far, failed to differentiate a series of large

2020 2021 2022 2023

PREV. REVIS. PREV. REVIS.

CHINA 2.4 8.0 4.5 4.0 5.0 5.0

US -3.4 5.5 3.5 1.9 2.6 2.0

EU -5.9 4.8 3.9 2.3 2.4 1.8

UK -9.7 6.0 4.2 3.0 2.5 2.0

GLOBAL -3.2 5.6 3.8 2.6 3.5 2.7

We see an ongoing supply recovery and

incipient demand slowdown leading to a gradual

deceleration of inflation over the coming year.

OVERVIEW

MID-YEAR OUTLOOK 2022

CITI GLOBAL WEALTH INVESTMENTS

In time, slowing consumer demand, inflation and

employment argue for central banks to swerve

from a path of excessive tightening that leads to

recession. With significant risks in mind, we have

altered portfolio allocations over the past year to

focus on higher quality income-generating assets

and the economy’s essential needs – see Our

positioning and FIGURE 2.

Too much 2020-21 stimulus,

withdrawal symptoms now

In response to the deep but short-lived economic

effects of the pandemic, fiscal and monetary

policymakers applied unprecedented stimulus.

Targeted financial support, say, for the airline and

hospitality industry and its workers would not

have generated the unsustainable demand boom

that the massive support for nearly all consumers

did. Now, in fighting pandemic-impacted

shortages – mismatches in supply or demand

that need to be resolved at a sectoral level –

policymakers are applying macro-level economic

restraints – FIGURE3.

History suggests that monetary policy has

never resolved supply shocks. The Fed regulates

demand, but does not produce goods and

services. The demand support provided to

economies in 2020-2021 is waning fast. In the first

quarter of 2022, US federal spending fell 33%.

A 250-basis point rise in mortgage rates is just

one example of the Fed’s blunt force to slow the

housing sector – FIGURE 4. Consumer spending is

likewise decelerating over the course of the first

Level of government transfer payments in $bn

Monthly change in retail sales in $bn

Recession

8000

6000

4000

2000

120

-30

-80

Jan ‘19 Jan ‘20 Jan ‘21 Jan ‘22Jul ‘19 Jul ‘20 Jul ‘21

Chart shows the inverted 30-year US mortgage rate and home loan applications. Source: Haver, as of 15 May 2022.

Figure 3. Declining stimulus, fading boom

Chart shows month-on-month changes in US government transfer payments of income and retail sales. Source: Haver, as of 15 May 2022.

Figure 4. Surging mortgage rates, sinking home loan applications

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

-40

-3

-2

-1

Loan applications (year-on-year % change)

30-year mortgage rate, inverted (year-on-year change)

OVERVIEW

MID-YEAR OUTLOOK 2022

CITI GLOBAL WEALTH INVESTMENTS

quarter. In time, we expect these actions to slow

employment and inflation - FIGURE 5.

The Fed was previously unmoved by the argument

that monetary easing was excessive in the boom

year of 2021. But the central bank’s views have

changed markedly in 2022. As the Fed begins a

period of more rapid monetary tightening, we

recall Chairman Powell’s words of last August: “The

main influence of monetary policy on inflation can

come after a lag of a year or more. If a central

bank tightens policy in response to factors that

turn out to be temporary, the main policy effects

are likely to arrive after the need has passed.”

At some point – ideally during 2022 – we would

hope the Fed will recognize the future impact of

its rate hikes and reduced lending (“quantitative

tightening”). If recognized early enough, this would

preserve the chance of continued expansion and

perhaps not require a policy reversal from the Fed.

Conversely, the US and global economy are unlikely

to sustain growth through another year if the

Fed continues with its projected rapid monetary

tightening deep into 2023.

The Fed has not managed to end recessions quickly

once underway. However, it does have a history

of frequent policy reversals. In the past 45 years,

the Fed has sustained its maximum policy rate for

only seven months on average before cutting rates.

In 2019, the Fed cut rates 75 basis points when it

expected to raise rates 75 basis points that year.

(It also ended quantitative tightening early at an

emergency meeting.)

If the Fed can soon strike a balance between the

excessive easing of 2021 and the rapid tightening

Chart shows the year-on-year percentage change in employment costs as measured by the Employment Cost Index: Civilian Workers,

and the year-on-year percentage change in the CPI-U; All Items inflation index. Source: Haver, as of 15 May 2022.

Figure 5. Where consumer spending goes, labor follows

Chart shows real percentage change in consumer spending pushed forward six months, with percentage change in private employment.

Source: Haver, as of 15 May 2022.

Figure 6. Inflation surged largely on goods shortages, not wages

Private employmentReal consumer spending, leading 6 months

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

-8

-4

Year-on-year % change

Employment compensationCPI

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

-2

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