y_scores = y_pred # 将多分类标签转换为二分类标签 y_true = np.argmax(y_test, axis=0) # 计算FPR和TPR fpr, tpr, thresholds = roc_curve(y_true, y_scores) # 计算AUC roc_auc = auc(fpr, tpr)

时间: 2024-02-23 19:57:06 浏览: 21
这段代码中,`y_scores` 变量是用 `y_pred` 赋值的,`y_pred` 应该是模型的预测结果,这个结果可能是多分类标签,需要将其转换为二分类标签。`y_true` 变量是通过 `np.argmax(y_test, axis=0)` 计算得到的,用于计算 FPR 和 TPR。`roc_curve` 函数用于计算二分类问题的 ROC 曲线,需要传入真实标签和预测得分。在这段代码中,`y_true` 和 `y_scores` 应该都是一维的数组。 由于出现了错误信息中提到的未知数据格式的问题,可能是 `y_true` 或 `y_scores` 的数据格式不正确,可以先检查一下这两个变量的数据类型和形状是否正确。
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将这段代码改为输出的AUC、f1_score、Accuracy是可重复的:# 定义模型参数 input_dim = X_train.shape[1] epochs = 100 batch_size = 32 learning_rate = 0.001 dropout_rate = 0.1 # 定义模型结构 def create_model(): model = Sequential() model.add(Dense(64, input_dim=input_dim, activation='relu')) model.add(Dropout(dropout_rate)) model.add(Dense(32, activation='relu')) model.add(Dropout(dropout_rate)) model.add(Dense(1, activation='sigmoid')) optimizer = Adam(learning_rate=learning_rate) model.compile(loss='binary_crossentropy', optimizer=optimizer, metrics=['accuracy']) return model # 5折交叉验证 kf = KFold(n_splits=5, shuffle=True, random_state=42) cv_scores = [] for train_index, test_index in kf.split(X_train): # 划分训练集和验证集 X_train_fold, X_val_fold = X_train.iloc[train_index], X_train.iloc[test_index] y_train_fold, y_val_fold = y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited.iloc[train_index], y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited.iloc[test_index] # 创建模型 model = create_model() # 定义早停策略 #early_stopping = EarlyStopping(monitor='val_loss', patience=10, verbose=1) # 训练模型 model.fit(X_train_fold, y_train_fold, validation_data=(X_val_fold, y_val_fold), epochs=epochs, batch_size=batch_size,verbose=1) # 预测验证集 y_pred = model.predict(X_val_fold) # 计算AUC指标 auc = roc_auc_score(y_val_fold, y_pred) cv_scores.append(auc) # 输出交叉验证结果 print('CV AUC:', np.mean(cv_scores)) # 在全量数据上重新训练模型 model = create_model() model.fit(X_train, y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, epochs=epochs, batch_size=batch_size, verbose=1) #测试集结果 test_pred = model.predict(X_test) test_auc = roc_auc_score(y_test_forced_turnover_nolimited, test_pred) test_f1_score = f1_score(y_test_forced_turnover_nolimited, np.round(test_pred)) test_accuracy = accuracy_score(y_test_forced_turnover_nolimited, np.round(test_pred)) print('Test AUC:', test_auc) print('Test F1 Score:', test_f1_score) print('Test Accuracy:', test_accuracy) #训练集结果 train_pred = model.predict(X_train) train_auc = roc_auc_score(y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, train_pred) train_f1_score = f1_score(y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, np.round(train_pred)) train_accuracy = accuracy_score(y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, np.round(train_pred)) print('Train AUC:', train_auc) print('Train F1 Score:', train_f1_score) print('Train Accuracy:', train_accuracy)

将这段代码改为输出的AUC、f1_score、Accuracy是可重复的: ```python # 定义模型参数 input_dim = X_train.shape[1] epochs = 100 batch_size = 32 learning_rate = 0.001 dropout_rate = 0.1 # 定义模型结构 def create_model(): model = Sequential() model.add(Dense(64, input_dim=input_dim, activation='relu')) model.add(Dropout(dropout_rate)) model.add(Dense(32, activation='relu')) model.add(Dropout(dropout_rate)) model.add(Dense(1, activation='sigmoid')) optimizer = Adam(learning_rate=learning_rate) model.compile(loss='binary_crossentropy', optimizer=optimizer, metrics=['accuracy']) return model # 5折交叉验证 kf = KFold(n_splits=5, shuffle=True, random_state=42) cv_scores = [] for train_index, test_index in kf.split(X_train): # 划分训练集和验证集 X_train_fold, X_val_fold = X_train.iloc[train_index], X_train.iloc[test_index] y_train_fold, y_val_fold = y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited.iloc[train_index], y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited.iloc[test_index] # 创建模型 model = create_model() # 训练模型 model.fit(X_train_fold, y_train_fold, validation_data=(X_val_fold, y_val_fold), epochs=epochs, batch_size=batch_size, verbose=1) # 预测验证集 y_pred = model.predict(X_val_fold) # 计算AUC指标 auc = roc_auc_score(y_val_fold, y_pred) cv_scores.append(auc) # 输出交叉验证结果 print('CV AUC:', np.mean(cv_scores)) # 在全量数据上重新训练模型 model = create_model() model.fit(X_train, y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, epochs=epochs, batch_size=batch_size, verbose=1) # 测试集结果 test_pred = model.predict(X_test) test_auc = roc_auc_score(y_test_forced_turnover_nolimited, test_pred) test_f1_score = f1_score(y_test_forced_turnover_nolimited, np.round(test_pred)) test_accuracy = accuracy_score(y_test_forced_turnover_nolimited, np.round(test_pred)) # 输出测试集结果 print('Test AUC:', test_auc) print('Test F1 Score:', test_f1_score) print('Test Accuracy:', test_accuracy) # 训练集结果 train_pred = model.predict(X_train) train_auc = roc_auc_score(y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, train_pred) train_f1_score = f1_score(y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, np.round(train_pred)) train_accuracy = accuracy_score(y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, np.round(train_pred)) # 输出训练集结果 print('Train AUC:', train_auc) print('Train F1 Score:', train_f1_score) print('Train Accuracy:', train_accuracy) ```

修改代码,使得输出结果是可重复的:# 定义模型参数 input_dim = X_train.shape[1] epochs = 100 batch_size = 32 learning_rate = 0.01 dropout_rate = 0.7 # 定义模型结构 def create_model(): model = Sequential() model.add(Dense(64, input_dim=input_dim, activation='relu')) model.add(Dropout(dropout_rate)) model.add(Dense(32, activation='relu')) model.add(Dropout(dropout_rate)) model.add(Dense(1, activation='sigmoid')) optimizer = Adam(learning_rate=learning_rate) model.compile(loss='binary_crossentropy', optimizer=optimizer, metrics=['accuracy']) return model # 5折交叉验证 kf = KFold(n_splits=5, shuffle=True, random_state=42) cv_scores = [] for train_index, test_index in kf.split(X_train): # 划分训练集和验证集 X_train_fold, X_val_fold = X_train.iloc[train_index], X_train.iloc[test_index] y_train_fold, y_val_fold = y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited.iloc[train_index], y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited.iloc[test_index] # 创建模型 model = create_model() # 定义早停策略 #early_stopping = EarlyStopping(monitor='val_loss', patience=10, verbose=1) # 训练模型 model.fit(X_train_fold, y_train_fold, validation_data=(X_val_fold, y_val_fold), epochs=epochs, batch_size=batch_size,verbose=1) # 预测验证集 y_pred = model.predict(X_val_fold) # 计算AUC指标 auc = roc_auc_score(y_val_fold, y_pred) cv_scores.append(auc) # 输出交叉验证结果 print('CV AUC:', np.mean(cv_scores)) # 在全量数据上重新训练模型 model = create_model() model.fit(X_train, y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, epochs=epochs, batch_size=batch_size, verbose=1) #测试集结果 test_pred = model.predict(X_test) test_auc = roc_auc_score(y_test_forced_turnover_nolimited, test_pred) test_f1_score = f1_score(y_test_forced_turnover_nolimited, np.round(test_pred)) test_accuracy = accuracy_score(y_test_forced_turnover_nolimited, np.round(test_pred)) print('Test AUC:', test_auc) print('Test F1 Score:', test_f1_score) print('Test Accuracy:', test_accuracy) #训练集结果 train_pred = model.predict(X_train) train_auc = roc_auc_score(y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, train_pred) train_f1_score = f1_score(y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, np.round(train_pred)) train_accuracy = accuracy_score(y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, np.round(train_pred)) print('Train AUC:', train_auc) print('Train F1 Score:', train_f1_score) print('Train Accuracy:', train_accuracy)

为了使输出结果可重复,可以在代码开头设置随机种子。修改后的代码如下: ```python import numpy as np import pandas as pd from sklearn.metrics import roc_auc_score, f1_score, accuracy_score from sklearn.model_selection import KFold from keras.models import Sequential from keras.layers import Dense, Dropout from keras.optimizers import Adam from keras.callbacks import EarlyStopping # 设置随机种子 np.random.seed(42) # 定义模型参数 input_dim = X_train.shape[1] epochs = 100 batch_size = 32 learning_rate = 0.01 dropout_rate = 0.7 # 定义模型结构 def create_model(): model = Sequential() model.add(Dense(64, input_dim=input_dim, activation='relu')) model.add(Dropout(dropout_rate)) model.add(Dense(32, activation='relu')) model.add(Dropout(dropout_rate)) model.add(Dense(1, activation='sigmoid')) optimizer = Adam(learning_rate=learning_rate) model.compile(loss='binary_crossentropy', optimizer=optimizer, metrics=['accuracy']) return model # 5折交叉验证 kf = KFold(n_splits=5, shuffle=True, random_state=42) cv_scores = [] for train_index, test_index in kf.split(X_train): # 划分训练集和验证集 X_train_fold, X_val_fold = X_train.iloc[train_index], X_train.iloc[test_index] y_train_fold, y_val_fold = y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited.iloc[train_index], y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited.iloc[test_index] # 创建模型 model = create_model() # 定义早停策略 #early_stopping = EarlyStopping(monitor='val_loss', patience=10, verbose=1) # 训练模型 model.fit(X_train_fold, y_train_fold, validation_data=(X_val_fold, y_val_fold), epochs=epochs, batch_size=batch_size,verbose=1) # 预测验证集 y_pred = model.predict(X_val_fold) # 计算AUC指标 auc = roc_auc_score(y_val_fold, y_pred) cv_scores.append(auc) # 输出交叉验证结果 print('CV AUC:', np.mean(cv_scores)) # 在全量数据上重新训练模型 model = create_model() model.fit(X_train, y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, epochs=epochs, batch_size=batch_size, verbose=1) #测试集结果 test_pred = model.predict(X_test) test_auc = roc_auc_score(y_test_forced_turnover_nolimited, test_pred) test_f1_score = f1_score(y_test_forced_turnover_nolimited, np.round(test_pred)) test_accuracy = accuracy_score(y_test_forced_turnover_nolimited, np.round(test_pred)) print('Test AUC:', test_auc) print('Test F1 Score:', test_f1_score) print('Test Accuracy:', test_accuracy) #训练集结果 train_pred = model.predict(X_train) train_auc = roc_auc_score(y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, train_pred) train_f1_score = f1_score(y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, np.round(train_pred)) train_accuracy = accuracy_score(y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, np.round(train_pred)) print('Train AUC:', train_auc) print('Train F1 Score:', train_f1_score) print('Train Accuracy:', train_accuracy) ```

相关推荐

在以下这段代码后面继续添加输出测试集、训练集AUC、f1_score、准确率的代码:# 定义模型参数 input_dim = X_train.shape[1] epochs = 100 batch_size = 32 learning_rate = 0.1 dropout_rate = 0.5 # 定义模型结构 def create_model(): model = Sequential() model.add(Dense(128, input_dim=input_dim, activation='relu')) model.add(Dropout(dropout_rate)) model.add(Dense(32, activation='relu')) model.add(Dropout(dropout_rate)) model.add(Dense(1, activation='sigmoid')) optimizer = Adam(learning_rate=learning_rate) model.compile(loss='binary_crossentropy', optimizer=optimizer, metrics=['accuracy']) return model # 5折交叉验证 kf = KFold(n_splits=5, shuffle=True, random_state=42) cv_scores = [] for train_index, test_index in kf.split(X_train): # 划分训练集和验证集 X_train_fold, X_val_fold = X_train.iloc[train_index], X_train.iloc[test_index] y_train_fold, y_val_fold = y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited.iloc[train_index], y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited.iloc[test_index] # 创建模型 model = create_model() # 定义早停策略 early_stopping = EarlyStopping(monitor='val_loss', patience=10, verbose=1) # 训练模型 model.fit(X_train_fold, y_train_fold, validation_data=(X_val_fold, y_val_fold), epochs=epochs, batch_size=batch_size, callbacks=[early_stopping], verbose=1) # 预测验证集 y_pred = model.predict(X_val_fold) # 计算AUC指标 auc = roc_auc_score(y_val_fold, y_pred) cv_scores.append(auc) # 输出交叉验证结果 print('CV AUC:', np.mean(cv_scores)) # 在全量数据上重新训练模型 model = create_model() model.fit(X_train, y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, epochs=epochs, batch_size=batch_size, verbose=1)

def cv_model(clf, train_x, train_y, test_x, clf_name='lgb'): folds = 5 seed = 2021 kf = KFold(n_splits=folds, shuffle=True, random_state=seed) train = np.zeros(train_x.shape[0]) test = np.zeros(test_x.shape[0]) cv_scores = [] for i, (train_index, valid_index) in enumerate(kf.split(train_x, train_y)): print('************ {} *************'.format(str(i+1))) trn_x, trn_y, val_x, val_y = train_x.iloc[train_index], train_y[train_index], train_x.iloc[valid_index], train_y[valid_index] train_matrix = clf.Dataset(trn_x, label=trn_y) valid_matrix = clf.Dataset(val_x, label=val_y) params = { 'boosting_type': 'gbdt', 'objective': 'binary', 'metric': 'auc', 'min_child_weight': 5, 'num_leaves': 2**6, 'lambda_l2': 10, 'feature_fraction': 0.9, 'bagging_fraction': 0.9, 'bagging_freq': 4, 'learning_rate': 0.01, 'seed': 2021, 'nthread': 28, 'n_jobs':-1, 'silent': True, 'verbose': -1, } model = clf.train(params, train_matrix, 50000, valid_sets=[train_matrix, valid_matrix], #categorical_feature = categorical_feature, verbose_eval=500,early_stopping_rounds=200) val_pred = model.predict(val_x, num_iteration=model.best_iteration) test_pred = model.predict(test_x, num_iteration=model.best_iteration) train[valid_index] = val_pred test += test_pred / kf.n_splits cv_scores.append(roc_auc_score(val_y, val_pred)) print(cv_scores) print("%s_scotrainre_list:" % clf_name, cv_scores) print("%s_score_mean:" % clf_name, np.mean(cv_scores)) print("%s_score_std:" % clf_name, np.std(cv_scores)) return train, test lgb_train, lgb_test = cv_model(lgb, x_train, y_train, x_test)这段代码什么意思,分类标签为0和1,属于二分类,预测结果点击率的数值是怎么来的

x_train = train.drop(['id','label'], axis=1) y_train = train['label'] x_test=test.drop(['id'], axis=1) def abs_sum(y_pre,y_tru): y_pre=np.array(y_pre) y_tru=np.array(y_tru) loss=sum(sum(abs(y_pre-y_tru))) return loss def cv_model(clf, train_x, train_y, test_x, clf_name): folds = 5 seed = 2021 kf = KFold(n_splits=folds, shuffle=True, random_state=seed) test = np.zeros((test_x.shape[0],4)) cv_scores = [] onehot_encoder = OneHotEncoder(sparse=False) for i, (train_index, valid_index) in enumerate(kf.split(train_x, train_y)): print('************************************ {} ************************************'.format(str(i+1))) trn_x, trn_y, val_x, val_y = train_x.iloc[train_index], train_y[train_index], train_x.iloc[valid_index], train_y[valid_index] if clf_name == "lgb": train_matrix = clf.Dataset(trn_x, label=trn_y) valid_matrix = clf.Dataset(val_x, label=val_y) params = { 'boosting_type': 'gbdt', 'objective': 'multiclass', 'num_class': 4, 'num_leaves': 2 ** 5, 'feature_fraction': 0.8, 'bagging_fraction': 0.8, 'bagging_freq': 4, 'learning_rate': 0.1, 'seed': seed, 'nthread': 28, 'n_jobs':24, 'verbose': -1, } model = clf.train(params, train_set=train_matrix, valid_sets=valid_matrix, num_boost_round=2000, verbose_eval=100, early_stopping_rounds=200) val_pred = model.predict(val_x, num_iteration=model.best_iteration) test_pred = model.predict(test_x, num_iteration=model.best_iteration) val_y=np.array(val_y).reshape(-1, 1) val_y = onehot_encoder.fit_transform(val_y) print('预测的概率矩阵为:') print(test_pred) test += test_pred score=abs_sum(val_y, val_pred) cv_scores.append(score) print(cv_scores) print("%s_scotrainre_list:" % clf_name, cv_scores) print("%s_score_mean:" % clf_name, np.mean(cv_scores)) print("%s_score_std:" % clf_name, np.std(cv_scores)) test=test/kf.n_splits return test def lgb_model(x_train, y_train, x_test): lgb_test = cv_model(lgb, x_train, y_train, x_test, "lgb") return lgb_test lgb_test = lgb_model(x_train, y_train, x_test) 这段代码运用了什么学习模型

帮我纠正这段代码# 定义模型参数 input_dim = X_train.shape[1] epochs = 100 batch_size = 32 lr = 0.001 dropout_rate = 0.5 # 定义模型结构 def create_model(): model = Sequential() model.add(Dense(64, input_dim=input_dim, activation='relu')) model.add(Dropout(dropout_rate)) model.add(Dense(32, activation='relu')) model.add(Dropout(dropout_rate)) model.add(Dense(1, activation='sigmoid')) optimizer = Adam(lr=lr) model.compile(loss='binary_crossentropy', optimizer=optimizer, metrics=['accuracy']) return model # 5折交叉验证 kf = KFold(n_splits=5, shuffle=True, random_state=42) cv_scores = [] for train_index, test_index in kf.split(X_train): # 划分训练集和验证集 X_train_fold, X_val_fold = X_train.iloc[train_index], X_train.iloc[test_index] y_train_fold, y_val_fold = y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited.iloc[train_index], y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited.iloc[test_index] # 创建模型 model = create_model() # 定义早停策略 early_stopping = EarlyStopping(monitor='val_loss', patience=10, verbose=1) # 训练模型 model.fit(X_train_fold, y_train_fold, validation_data=(X_val_fold, y_val_fold), epochs=epochs, batch_size=batch_size, callbacks=[early_stopping], verbose=1) # 预测验证集 y_pred = model.predict(X_val_fold) # 计算AUC指标 auc = roc_auc_score(y_val_fold, y_pred) cv_scores.append(auc) # 输出交叉验证结果 print('CV AUC:', np.mean(cv_scores)) # 在全量数据上重新训练模型 model = create_model() model.fit(X_train, y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited, epochs=epochs, batch_size=batch_size, verbose=1)

for each class class_names = np.unique(y_train) y_scores = tree.predict_proba(X_test) y_pred = tree.predict(X_test) macro_auc = roc_auc_score(y_test, y_scores, multi_class='ovo', average='macro') y_test = label_binarize(y_test, classes=range(3)) y_pred = label_binarize(y_pred, classes=range(3)) micro_auc = roc_auc_score(y_test, y_scores, average='micro') #micro_auc = roc_auc_score(y_test, y_scores, multi_class='ovr', average='micro') # calculate ROC curve fpr = dict() tpr = dict() roc_auc = dict() for i in range(3): # 遍历三个类别 fpr[i], tpr[i], _ = roc_curve(y_test[:, i], y_pred[:, i]) roc_auc[i] = auc(fpr[i], tpr[i]) return reports, matrices, micro_auc, macro_auc, fpr, tpr, roc_auc根据上述代码怎么调整下列代码fpr["micro"], tpr["micro"], _ = roc_curve(y_test.ravel(), y_pred.ravel()) roc_auc["micro"] = auc(fpr["micro"], tpr["micro"]) # Compute macro-average ROC curve and ROC area(方法一) # First aggregate all false positive rates all_fpr = np.unique(np.concatenate([fpr_avg[i] for i in range(3)])) # Then interpolate all ROC curves at this points mean_tpr = np.zeros_like(all_fpr) for i in range(3): mean_tpr += interp(all_fpr, fpr_avg[i], tpr_avg[i]) # Finally average it and compute AUC mean_tpr /= 3 fpr_avg["macro"] = all_fpr tpr_avg["macro"] = mean_tpr macro_auc_avg["macro"] = macro_auc_avg # Plot all ROC curves lw = 2 plt.figure() plt.plot(fpr_avg["micro"], tpr_avg["micro"], label='micro-average ROC curve (area = {0:0.2f})' ''.format(micro_auc_avg["micro"]), color='deeppink', linestyle=':', linewidth=4) plt.plot(fpr_avg["macro"], tpr_avg["macro"], label='macro-average ROC curve (area = {0:0.2f})' ''.format(macro_auc_avg["macro"]), color='navy', linestyle=':', linewidth=4) colors = cycle(['aqua', 'darkorange', 'cornflowerblue']) for i, color in zip(range(3), colors): plt.plot(fpr_avg[i], tpr_avg[i], color=color, lw=lw, label='ROC curve of class {0} (area = {1:0.2f})' ''.format(i, roc_auc_avg[i])) plt.plot([0, 1], [0, 1], 'k--', lw=lw) plt.xlim([0.0, 1.0]) plt.ylim([0.0, 1.05]) plt.xlabel('False Positive Rate') plt.ylabel('True Positive Rate') plt.title('DF') plt.legend(loc="lower right") plt.show()

纠正代码:trainsets = pd.read_csv('/Users/zhangxinyu/Desktop/trainsets82.csv') testsets = pd.read_csv('/Users/zhangxinyu/Desktop/testsets82.csv') y_train_forced_turnover_nolimited = trainsets['m3_forced_turnover_nolimited'] X_train = trainsets.drop(['m3_P_perf_ind_all_1','m3_P_perf_ind_all_2','m3_P_perf_ind_all_3','m3_P_perf_ind_allind_1',\ 'm3_P_perf_ind_allind_2','m3_P_perf_ind_allind_3','m3_P_perf_ind_year_1','m3_P_perf_ind_year_2',\ 'm3_P_perf_ind_year_3','m3_forced_turnover_nolimited','m3_forced_turnover_3mon',\ 'm3_forced_turnover_6mon','m3_forced_turnover_1year','m3_forced_turnover_3year',\ 'm3_forced_turnover_5year','m3_forced_turnover_10year',\ 'CEOid','CEO_turnover_N','year','Firmid','appo_year'],axis=1) y_test_forced_turnover_nolimited = testsets['m3_forced_turnover_nolimited'] X_test = testsets.drop(['m3_P_perf_ind_all_1','m3_P_perf_ind_all_2','m3_P_perf_ind_all_3','m3_P_perf_ind_allind_1',\ 'm3_P_perf_ind_allind_2','m3_P_perf_ind_allind_3','m3_P_perf_ind_year_1','m3_P_perf_ind_year_2',\ 'm3_P_perf_ind_year_3','m3_forced_turnover_nolimited','m3_forced_turnover_3mon',\ 'm3_forced_turnover_6mon','m3_forced_turnover_1year','m3_forced_turnover_3year',\ 'm3_forced_turnover_5year','m3_forced_turnover_10year',\ 'CEOid','CEO_turnover_N','year','Firmid','appo_year'],axis=1) # 定义模型参数 input_dim = X.shape[1] epochs = 100 batch_size = 32 lr = 0.001 dropout_rate = 0.5 # 定义模型结构 def create_model(): model = Sequential() model.add(Dense(64, input_dim=input_dim, activation='relu')) model.add(Dropout(dropout_rate)) model.add(Dense(32, activation='relu')) model.add(Dropout(dropout_rate)) model.add(Dense(1, activation='sigmoid')) optimizer = Adam(lr=lr) model.compile(loss='binary_crossentropy', optimizer=optimizer, metrics=['accuracy']) return model # 5折交叉验证 kf = KFold(n_splits=5, shuffle=True, random_state=42) cv_scores = [] for train_index, test_index in kf.split(X): # 划分训练集和验证集 X_train, X_val = X[train_index], X[test_index] y_train, y_val = y[train_index], y[test_index] # 创建模型 model = create_model() # 定义早停策略 early_stopping = EarlyStopping(monitor='val_loss', patience=10, verbose=1) # 训练模型 model.fit(X_train, y_train, validation_data=(X_val, y_val), epochs=epochs, batch_size=batch_size, callbacks=[early_stopping], verbose=1) # 预测验证集 y_pred = model.predict(X_val) # 计算AUC指标 auc = roc_auc_score(y_val, y_pred) cv_scores.append(auc) # 输出交叉验证结果 print('CV AUC:', np.mean(cv_scores)) # 在全量数据上重新训练模型 model = create_model() model.fit(X, y, epochs=epochs, batch_size=batch_size, verbose=1)

final_valid_predictions = {} final_test_predictions = [] scores = [] log_losses = [] balanced_log_losses = [] weights = [] for fold in range(5): train_df = df[df['fold'] != fold] valid_df = df[df['fold'] == fold] valid_ids = valid_df.Id.values.tolist() X_train, y_train = train_df.drop(['Id', 'Class', 'fold'], axis=1), train_df['Class'] X_valid, y_valid = valid_df.drop(['Id', 'Class', 'fold'], axis=1), valid_df['Class'] lgb = LGBMClassifier(boosting_type='goss', learning_rate=0.06733232950390658, n_estimators = 50000, early_stopping_round = 300, random_state=42, subsample=0.6970532011679706, colsample_bytree=0.6055755840633003, class_weight='balanced', metric='none', is_unbalance=True, max_depth=8) lgb.fit(X_train, y_train, eval_set=(X_valid, y_valid), verbose=1000, eval_metric=lgb_metric) y_pred = lgb.predict_proba(X_valid) preds_test = lgb.predict_proba(test_df.drop(['Id'], axis=1).values) final_test_predictions.append(preds_test) final_valid_predictions.update(dict(zip(valid_ids, y_pred))) logloss = log_loss(y_valid, y_pred) balanced_logloss = balanced_log_loss(y_valid, y_pred[:, 1]) log_losses.append(logloss) balanced_log_losses.append(balanced_logloss) weights.append(1/balanced_logloss) print(f"Fold: {fold}, log loss: {round(logloss, 3)}, balanced los loss: {round(balanced_logloss, 3)}") print() print("Log Loss") print(log_losses) print(np.mean(log_losses), np.std(log_losses)) print() print("Balanced Log Loss") print(balanced_log_losses) print(np.mean(balanced_log_losses), np.std(balanced_log_losses)) print() print("Weights") print(weights)

#预测因子(海温) #nino3.4赤道东太平洋(190-220,-5-5) a22=sst_djf.sel(lon=slice(190,220),lat=slice(5,-5)).mean(axis=1).mean(axis=1) a2=(a22-a22.mean())/a22.std() #赤道印度洋(50-80,-5-5) a33=sst_djf.sel(lon=slice(50,100),lat=slice(5,-5)).mean(axis=1).mean(axis=1) a3=(a33-a33.mean())/a33.std() #预测因子(环流场) #南欧(30-40,35-45) b11=hgt_djf.sel(lon=slice(30,40),lat=slice(45,35)).mean(axis=1).mean(axis=1) b1=(b11-b11.mean())/b11.std() #太平洋副高(120-180,-10-10) b22=hgt_djf.sel(lon=slice(120,180),lat=slice(10,-10)).mean(axis=1).mean(axis=1) b2=(b22-b22.mean())/b22.std() #印度洋(60-80,-10-10) b33=hgt_djf.sel(lon=slice(60,80),lat=slice(10,-10)).mean(axis=1).mean(axis=1) b3=(b33-b33.mean())/b33.std() x=np.vstack([(a2,a3,b1,b2,b3)]).T x2=np.vstack([(a2,b1)]).T y=pre_standard #多元线性回归 res=np.linalg.lstsq(x,y,rcond=None) n=res[0] ##各项系数 y_fit=(n.T*x).sum(axis=1) #拟合数据 res2=np.linalg.lstsq(x2,y,rcond=None) n2=res2[0] ##各项系数 y_fit2=(n2.T*x2).sum(axis=1) #拟合数据 #可视化 time=np.arange(1961,2017,1) fig = plt.figure(figsize=[16, 5]) ax = fig.add_subplot() ax.plot(time, y,marker='o', color='gray', markersize=5) ax.plot(time, y_fit,marker='*', color='b', markersize=5) ax.plot(time, y_fit2,marker='^', color='r', markersize=5) ax.set_title('model',fontsize=20,fontweight='bold') ax.set_xlabel('Time') ax.set_ylabel('Pre') plt.legend(['Source data','Fitted1','Fitted2'],frameon=False,loc='best') plt.show()选做剔除一年的交叉检验,独立试报

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