新加坡REITs：亚太房地产市场中的乐观之声——JP摩根报告 - CSDN文库

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6

Asia Pacific

Equity Research

31 January 2020

Mervin Song, CFA

(65) 6882-7829

mervin.song@jpmorgan.com

Industrial REITs best fit this criteria, in our view, as their earnings are relatively

immune due to their: (1) relatively long WALEs; (2) exposure to growing the e-

commerce (potential beneficiary of people not going out) and datacenter industries;

and (3) limited direct impact from tourism.

While there may be disruptions to global supply chains and manufacturing activities

arising from factories being closed in China over the next few weeks, and potentially

months, we expect most tenants to fulfill their rental obligations.

Furthermore, our bullish thesis on industrial REITs is not predicated on strong

organic rental growth, but rather on DPU growth coming from acquisitions. Our base

case remains that rents across the various industrial categories should be flattish

ahead, with potential pockets of pressure on rents and occupancy.

Additional catalyst from potential indexation

Beyond our view that the virtuous cycle should sustain the re-rating of industrial

REIT share prices and that investors should be attracted to exposure to e-commerce

and datacenter structural growth industries, we believe the potential inclusion and

anticipated inclusion of MLT into MSCI Singapore and MINT into STI and MSCI

Singapore, respectively, should act re-rating catalysts (see REITifying the Singapore

Index for an in-depth discussion).

There is potential for MLT to be included in the MSCI’s quarterly review in

February, though the J.P. Morgan index team believes there is a greater probability of

MLT’s being included in the May semi-annual review. This is because there is

usually a smaller amount of stocks added in the whole of the Asia-Pacific region in a

quarterly review, with a higher market cap threshold than in a semi-annual review.

AREIT’s lag over last three months is an opportunity

Factors driving underperformance

AREIT has underperformed its industrial REIT peers and the S-REIT index over the

last seven months due to the following factors:

1. Overhang from potential equity-raising to fund the acquisition of the U.S. office

portfolio from its sponsor.

2. Our discussions with investors indicate that some were frustrated over AREIT’s

acquisition of a U.S. office portfolio, which they had communicated was not

something they wanted before the acquisition announcement.

3. A negative surprise from AREIT’s conducting a rights issue with a 17% discount,

rather than a combination of placement and preferential offering, which was the

norm for S-REIT raisings, resulting in smaller-than-expected DPU accretion.

4. Our discussions with investors indicate that some were upset that investors were

forced to approve the U.S. acquisition, as the money was raised for the

acquisition via the rights issue before the vote at the EGM to approve the

transaction.

5. Other industrial REITs’ announcements of DPU-accretive acquisitions that drove

their share prices higher.

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