中国武汉大学：空间垃圾清理盈利模型与评估

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本篇文档主要关注于"Will We Survive in the Space Junk?"的问题，这是2016年Mathematical Contest in Modeling (MCM/ICM)竞赛中的一项挑战，由武汉大学的团队B48573所提交。该研究的目标是设计一个评估轨道碎片清除(ODR)系统性能的模型，并探讨这个领域是否存在盈利的可能性。首先，团队构建了一个基于普通微分方程的模型来模拟碎片清除过程，作为盈利模型的基础。他们通过比较ODR系统的成本与通过清理活动获得的总收入，计算净收益。研究发现，私营企业想要在这个行业中实现经济利益，需要超过50年的投资期，目前来看，这一行业的利润空间并不明显。进一步的研究还考虑了碎片的回收利用。尽管回收活动具有潜在的环保价值，但结果表明，由于回收过程中的高成本，与不进行回收的模式相比，回收模式带来的经济效益更小。因此，结论是，在当前的技术和经济条件下，ODR系统作为一个商业机遇可能并不具备即时的盈利前景。文档还提到了采用层次分析法(AHP)进行综合评估，这种方法被用来确定不同因素对整体ODR性能的影响权重，从而在制定策略时考虑到所有相关因素。同时，团队被要求开发新的碰撞避免方法，以提高系统的安全性。这份报告不仅提供了关于空间垃圾问题的数学模型分析，还深入探讨了商业可行性、技术挑战以及成本效益分析，为未来该领域的研究和实践提供了有价值的参考。然而，对于寻求短期投资回报的投资者来说，ODR系统目前可能不是一个理想的投资选择。

Team # 48573 Page 5 of 28

1.3 Literature Review

Donald Kessler advanced a mathematical model in 1978 to predict the rate at

which the debris belt might form. It was concluded that the debris ﬂux would in-

crease exponentially with time even though zero net input rate were maintained

[4], which is referred to as the ”Kessler Syndrome” [5].This could be traced back

as the ﬁrst notion to address the space debris problem.

Ever since the concept has been put forward, numerous solutions have been

proposed to deal with this issue. These technologies are mainly categorized as

follows: the ground-based approaches to active debris removal and the passive

de-orbit systems which are deployed at the end of life. For the ground based ap-

proaches, high powered laser systems can remove debris in the low earth orbit.

In the passive de-orbit systems, inﬂatable balloons, inﬂatable tube membranes,

suspendable tethers etc. are all simple and easily deployable drag systems that

can hasten the speed of debris de-orbiting process [6].

1.4 Results

We use a system of ordinary differential equations to simulate the environ-

ment of the space from qualitative and quantitative perspectives, with ODR

present or not. The results of modeling generate approximate amounts of debris

and remaining spacecraft based on their initial numbers. We concluded that O-

DR can help eliminate the debris while protecting the spacecraft effectively. The

proﬁts of different methods are calculated by subtracting the ODR systems’ cost

from the total value of protected satellites. Next we use AHP (Analytic Hierar-

chy Process) to evaluate the performance of different ODR systems in regards

to our pre-set essential factors. The result indicates the SpaDE ODR system to

be the most favorable one. Our results show that given the best model, the de-

bris removal industry will not make money in the current situation, but will be

proﬁtable in more than 50 years from now on.

2 Models

2.1 Overview

The space debris removal problem encompasses a multitude of factors. To

simplify the description, we concentrate on the numerical perspective and study

dynamics of the number of satellites and space debris orbiting the earth.

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中国武汉大学：空间垃圾清理盈利模型与评估

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