6
North America
Equity Research
13 March 2020
Anne E. Samuel
(1-212) 622-4163
anne.e.samuel@jpmorgan.com
What Changed in Our Models Post 2020 Guides?
MDRX – Based on lower than expected 2020 guidance, we lowered our 2020
revenue estimate to $1.8B from $1.85B reflecting 1.6% YoY growth (in line
with $1.75-1.85B guidance), and we lowered our EPS estimate to $0.73 from
$0.75, in line with $0.70-75 guidance. For 1Q we model revenue of $426M (in
line with guidance for $420-430M) and EPS of $0.15.
EVH – We are lowering our 2020 revenue estimate to $965M from $975M due
to lower premium revenue in the guidance, with services revenue growth
guidance of >20% in line with our expectations. We are also lowering our 2020
EBITDA estimate to $26M from $42M as guidance was below our expectations.
Our model stands in line with guidance for revenue of $935-985M and EBITDA
of $24-32M. For 1Q we model revenue of $236M (vs. guidance of $233.5-
245.5M) and EBTIDA of $3.7M (vs. guidance of $2-5M).
HCAT – For 2020, our estimates are largely unchanged. We model revenue of
$187M (vs. $186M previously), in line with the guidance of $185M to $188M
and representing growth of 21% y/y. Our EBITDA estimate for the year
is -$22M, in line with guidance of -$23.5M to -$20.5M. For 1Q, we model
revenue of $42M, in line with guidance of $42-45M, and EBITDA of ($7M), in
line with guidance of -$8.5M to -$6.5M.
LVGO – Looking to 2020, given better than expected guidance, we are raising
our estimate for total revenue to $284M from $281M, equating to 67% YoY
growth. We see gross profit margins of 72.8% (flat YoY, in line with guidance)
and we estimate F2020 EBITDA of -$22M (-$25M previously). This stands in
line with 2020 guidance for revenue of $280M-290M and adjusted EBITDA of
($22M) to ($20M). For 1Q we estimate revenue of $61M and EBTIDA of -$5M,
which compares with the guide for revenue of $60-62M implying 87-93% YoY
growth and adjusted EBITDA of ($5.5M) to ($4.5M).
PGNY – For 2020, based on better than expected guidance, we raised our
estimate for total revenue growth to 77% to $410M (from 71% to $394M), and
we raised our F2020E EBITDA to $44M from $41M, equating to a 10.8%
margin. This is in line with guidance for revenue of $395M-415M equating to
72-81% growth, and EBITDA of $41.7-45.3M. For 1Q, we model revenue of
$89M and EBITDA of $9M, in line with guidance for revenue of $89-84M and
EBITDA of $8.4-9.3M.
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