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首页美国高收益信贷分析师关注名单
美国高收益信贷分析师关注名单
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更新于2023-11-23
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《JP摩根-美股-信贷策略-美国高收益信贷分析师关注名单-626-23页.pdf》是一份发布于2019年6月26日的北美信贷研究报告,主要关注美国高收益信贷市场。该报告是由JP摩根的信贷策略团队编制,其中包括分析师关注名单。 这份报告指出,JP摩根第49次连续发布的分析师关注名单,距离其“金钻纪念日”(发布第50份分析师关注名单)已经非常接近。这一连续的发布表明该报告具有独特的实力和持续性。 报告中提到,JP摩根在其研究报告中涵盖的公司中有可能进行业务往来。因此,投资者应该意识到该公司可能存在利益冲突,从而影响报告的客观性。投资者在做出投资决策时,应该将本报告仅视为一个因素。 该报告的主要撰写者是Tarek Hamid,他是JP摩根证券有限责任公司的高收益信贷研究分析师。他的联系方式为tarek.x.hamid@jpmorgan.com,电话为1-212-834-5468。 总的来说,这份报告主要围绕美国高收益信贷市场展开研究,通过分析师关注名单的方式提供投资者决策参考。然而,投资者需要注意报告中存在的利益冲突可能影响报告的客观性。投资者在做出决策时,应该综合考虑多种因素。详细内容可参考该报告的第21页。报告的更多信息可在www.jpmorganmarkets.com上获取。
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5
North America
Credit Research
26 June 2019
Tarek Hamid
(1-212) 834-5468
tarek.x.hamid@jpmorgan.com
CF Industries (CF)
LSB Industries (LXU)
Sell CF 3.45% Senior Unsecured Notes due 2023
Bid at $100.000 (3.45%); Target: $98.00 (4.00%)
Buy LXU 9.625% Sr. Secured Notes due 2023
Offered at $103.750 (8.11%); Target: $105.00 (7.63%)
Credit and Investment Highlights:
CF Industries is a leading, global manufacturer of fertilizers and chemicals. The
company’s products include ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate
solution, ammonium nitrate, diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor and others.
LSB Industries manufactures chemicals products for the agricultural, industrial
and mining markets. Its products include but are not limited to ammonia,
ammonium nitrate, urea ammonia nitrate, diesel exhaust fluid and others.
CF reported 1Q19 Adjusted EBITDA of $305 million, which was weaker than
the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $337 million. The company paid
$67 million in dividends and repurchased $87 million of stock. Lastly,
management guided to FY2019 capex of $400 - $450 million.
LSB Industries reported 1Q19 Adjusted EBITDA of $18.1 million, in line with
the Bloomberg consensus of $16 million, which consisted of only one estimate.
Management guided to FY2019 capital expenditures of $30-$35 million.
Why This Swap Should Outperform:
Reach for yield in Nitrogen: In exchange for 3.75 dollar points, accounts pick
up ~465bp of yield relative to CF and swap into well-covered, secured paper.
Additionally, LXU 9.625% Sr. Secured Notes due 2023 trade ~230bp wide to the
J.P. Morgan High Yield Chemicals Index trading at a YTW of 5.82% compared
to CF Notes trading more than 235bp tight to the index.
CF upside is limited. We rate CF Neutral and view bonds as a core holding in
any High Yield Chemicals portfolio. However, at current levels, we believe
bonds offer little upside for investors, as CF notes currently trade 90bp tight to
the JPM High Yield Split BBB Index despite the lack of a near-term IG-
migration catalyst and a continued focus on shareholders.
Stabilized operations should facilitate deleveraging: Over the last three
quarters, LSB Industries averaged an on-stream rate of 94% across its ammonia
plants vs. an average of 83% the three quarters prior. We expect LXU’s leverage
metrics and free cash flow profile to improve meaningfully as it implements
additional operational improvement measures.
Risks to our ratings: Both companies are largely dependent on the nitrogen
cycle; consequently pricing volatility for both raw materials and end products
represent risks to both the upside and the downside. At LXU, elevated leverage
would likely exacerbate any downside risk
Relative Value Swap
Description
Bid
Offer
∆
YTW
∆
STW
∆
Ratings
∆
YTW date
∆
SELL CF Industries INC (CF)
3.45% Sr Unsecured Nts due 6/1/2023
$100.00
3.45%
146
bp
Ba3/BB+
6/1/23
BUY LSB INDUSTRIES (LXU)
9.625
%
Secured Nts
due
5/1/2023
$103.75
8.12%
643 bp
Caa1/CCC
+
5/1/22
($3.75
)
4.66%
496
bp
-
4 /
-
6
(1.1)
Sources: J.P. Morgan, Moody’s, and S&P. Priced as of 25 June 2019.
Issuer Rating (CF)
Neutral
Moody’s: Ba3; Outlook: S
S&P: BB+; Outlook: S
Issuer Rating (LXU)
Overweight
Moody’s: Caa1; Outlook: S
S&P: CCC+; Outlook: S
Chemicals
Nathan Schubert
AC
(1-212) 270-7283
nathan.schubert@jpmorgan.com
Fred Pina
(1-212) 834-4836
fred.pina@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
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