论文研究 - 在RCP场景4.5和8.5中使用CMIP5模型对巴西东南部的闪电进行气候投影

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巴西东南部

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American Journal of Climate Change, 2017, 6, 539-553

http://www.scirp.org/journal/ajcc

ISSN Online: 2167-9509

ISSN Print: 2167-9495

DOI:

10.4236/ajcc.2017.63027 Sep. 1, 2017 539 American Journal of Climate Change

Climatic Projections of Lightning in

Southeastern Brazil Using CMIP5 Models in

RCP’s Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5

Ana Paula Paes dos Santos

, Osmar Pinto Júnior

, Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos Santos

Francisco José Lopes de Lima

, Everaldo Barreiros de Souza

André Arruda Rodrigues de Morais

, Eldo E. Ávila

, Analía Pedernera

National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, Brazil

Vale Institute of Technology (ITV), Belém, Brazil

National University of Cordoba (UNC), Córdoba, Argentina

Abstract

Given the high and increasing lightning incidence over the Southeast of Brazil

and the various impacts that this phenomenon generates to

society, there is a

growing need in predicting its occurrence, in order to minimize its cons

quences. In this context, this work presents the development of a methodol

gy for the projection of lightning in the State of São Paulo (Southeastern Br

zil), using the HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-

Mk3.6 models in two IPCC climate

change scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Since lightning is not an output vari

ble of climate models, tests were carried out to evaluate the relationship b

tween the observed data of oceanic and atmo

spheric fields, which are known

as outputs of the models, and the lightning from the RINDAT and BrasilDAT

detection networks. As result, a correlation of 0.84 was obtained. In the pr

jections, it was verified that, while during a large portion of the current cl

mate we observed events of lightning below the average, the future climate

reveals the preponderance of anomalously above average events, both in the

scenario of intermediate-

low emissions (RCP4.5) and in the scenario of high

emissions (RCP8.5), suggesting a change in the pattern of the lightning inc

dence in the State of São Paulo.

Keywords

Lightning, Climatic Projections, Southeastern Brazil

1. Introduction

The State of São Paulo, in the Southeast of Brazil, has presented a history with

How to cite this paper:

Santos, A.P.P.,

Pinto

Júnior, O., Santos, S.R.Q., Lima, F.J.L.,

Souza, E

.B., Morais, A.A.R., Ávila, E.E. and

Pedernera

, A. (2017)

Climatic Projections

Lightning in Southeastern Brazil Using

CMIP5 Models in RCP’s Sc

narios 4.5 and

8.5

American Journal of Climate Change

, 539-553.

https:

//doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2017.63027

Received:

July 15, 2017

Accepted:

August 29, 2017

Published:

September 1, 2017

7 by authors and

Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

This work is licensed under the Creative

Commons Attribution

-NonCommercial

International License (

CC BY-NC 4.0).

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by

-nc/4.0/

Open Access

A. P. P. dos Santos et al.

DOI:

10.4236/ajcc.2017.63027 540 American Journal of Climate Change

high number of storms accompanied by lightning that causes several impacts to

the society. These storms are associated with the climatic characteristics of the

region, which has a large space-time variation in the lightning incidence, as well

as a continuous process of urbanization, which intensifies the development of

these storms [1] [2].

Over the years, several studies using different methodologies [3] [4] [5] [6],

have already shown that the Southeast Region of Brazil is inserted in the spatial

context of the regions of the world with the highest incidence of this phenome-

non. Only in the State of São Paulo, there are around 700,000 lightning per year

[1].

Due to this, there is currently great concern regarding the increase in the lightning

incidence, mainly due to the great power of destruction caused by this pheno-

menon that although much occurs inside the cloud, that is, without the contact

with the surface of the Earth [7], the portion that reaches the ground is numer-

ous enough to cause considerable damage to structures built by man, particular-

ly in large cities. These damages consist of electric systems failures, breakdowns

in telecommunications towers and buildings, burning of electronic equipment,

among others [1], causing damage to society estimated at 500 million dollars a

year in Brazil alone [4].

In addition, the lightning can cause fatalities, being the second major cause of

death by meteorological phenomena on the planet, according to World statistics.

In Brazil alone, there are around 130 deaths per year, according to data from a

survey of lightning deaths between 2000 and 2009. In the last decade, 1321 people

died of being struck by lightning, with a higher number of fatalities, the South-

east Region, with 29% of the total [8]. In recent statistics, it was observed that,

between 2000 and 2014, there were 263 fatalities in the State of São Paulo [9].

These data reveal the great importance of understanding the behavior of this

phenomenon in the future climate. In the short-term forecast scale, studies have

been developed, based on meteorological parameters and/or cloud microphysics

[10] [11] [12] [13]. However, a complex obstacle that still requires several studies

and methodological techniques to be supplied, is in relation to the long-term

projection of this phenomenon, since it is not an output variable of the forecast-

ing numerical models, and still needs studies on the climatic parameters that

modulate their occurrence.

In view of this, the present study proposes to contribute with the advance in

the knowledge of the lightning incidence of the cloud-to-ground type (CG) in

the State of São Paulo, by means of future climatic projections of the occurrence

of this phenomenon.

The results obtained will serve as a basis for the construction and improve-

ment of alert systems, in the short and long term for the State of São Paulo, thus

allowing preventive measures to be taken to minimize the impacts caused by this

phenomenon.

Associated with this information, the alert in relation to increase of the fre-

A. P. P. dos Santos et al.

DOI:

10.4236/ajcc.2017.63027 541 American Journal of Climate Change

quency of the extreme climatic events caused by the intensification of the global

warming, divulged by the Intergovernmental Panel in Climate Change-IPCC [14]

[15] in its latest report, AR5, strengthens the development of research in the pre-

dictable scope, which may point to periods of higher lightning incidence.

Finally, one of the main justifications for this kind of evaluation is that studies

of this nature for this phenomenon in this region are still very incipient. How-

ever, it is of great relevance to several sectors of interest and can be used as a

subsidy for environmental interventions that minimize the impacts caused by

the lightning incidence.

2. Data and Methodology

Given the fact that the lightning is not an output variable of the climatic models,

to obtain the projections of this phenomenon, tests were carried out to evaluate the

relationship between ocean-atmospheric variables, which are outputs of the mod-

els, and lightning, using observed data (Reanalysis by National Centers for Envi-

ronmental Predictions/National Center for Atmospheric Research-NCEP/NCAR)

for the period of greatest occurrence of the phenomenon, summer. This was done

because, based on the knowledge of the mathematical function that describes the

behavior of a dependent variable (explained or predicted) as a function of the

dynamics of other independent variables (explanatory or predictive), it is possi-

ble to make future projections using model data.

2.1. Data

2.1.1. Observational Data

The CG lightning data used in this work for the State of São Paulo, in the

Southeast of Brazil (

Figure 1) come from the Integrated Network for the Detec-

tion of Atmospheric Discharges (RINDAT) and the Brazilian Network for the

Detection of Atmospheric Discharges (BrasilDAT).

Sixteen years of data were considered, corresponding to the austral summer

period from 1999 to 2014, of which the 1999-2010 data are from the RINDAT

network and the data from 2011-2014 are from the BrasilDAT network. For the

studied period, RINDAT showed detection efficiency above 80% and Brazil DAT

above 90% [16] [17]. These values indicate that both networks had full condi-

tions to use their data. The networks detect the electromagnetic pulse from a

lightning strike and calculate latitude and longitude of the point of incidence,

time of occurrence in UTC, among other characteristics.

Several tests were performed using oceanic-atmospheric parameters such as

sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation, air temperature, outgoing longwave

radiation (OLR) and the omega difference between the tropospheric levels of 850

and 500 hPa, to verify which of these variables presented the best relation with

the lightning. These tests were done for both simultaneous and lagged correla-

tions.

The data of the atmospheric variables were selected in the area on the State of

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