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DECISION MAKING IN

COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTS

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

for Decision Making

and

The Analytic Network Process (ANP)

for Decision Making with

Dependence and Feedback

Rozann W. Saaty

Software for Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback

SUPER DECISIONS

iii

FOREWORD

We want this book to help people be exemplary survivors, persistent and durable, creative

decision-makers and leaders, effective negotiators, doers and implementers of ideas and plans.

The Analytic Network Process (ANP) is the most comprehensive framework for the analysis of

societal, governmental and corporate decisions that is available today to the decision-maker. It

allows one to include all the factors and criteria, tangible and intangible that have bearing on

making a best decision. The Analytic Network Process allows both interaction and feedback

within clusters of elements (inner dependence) and between clusters (outer dependence). Such

feedback best captures the complex effects of interplay in human society, especially when risk

and uncertainty are involved.

The ANP, developed by Thomas L. Saaty, provides a way to input judgments and measurements

to derive ratio scale priorities for the distribution of influence among the factors and groups of

factors in the decision. Ratio scales make possible proportionate allocation of resources

according to derived priorities. The well-known decision theory, the Analytic Hierarchy Process

(AHP) is a special case of the ANP. Both the AHP and the ANP derive ratio scale priorities by

making paired comparisons of elements on a common property or criterion. Although many

decision problems are best studied through the ANP, one may wish to compare the results

obtained with it to those obtained using the AHP or any other decision approach with respect to

the time it took to obtain the results, the effort involved in making the judgments, and the

relevance and accuracy of the results.

ANP models have three parts: the first is a strategic criteria in terms of which a decision is

evaluated according to its merits of Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risk. Each merit provides

control criteria for the second part of the decision and with each control criterion there is

associated a network of influences that determine the priorities of the alternatives of the decision

for that control criterion. The priorities of the merits and those of the control criteria are then

used to synthesize the priorities of the alternatives to obtain the final best answer. The

supermatrix and its powers are the fundamental tools needed to lay out the workings of the ANP

The ANP has been applied to a large variety of decisions: marketing, medical, political, military,

social, forecasting and prediction and many others. Its accuracy of prediction is impressive in

applications that have been made to economic trends, sports and other events for which the

outcome later became known. Detailed case studies of applications are included in this book and

also in the book, The Analytic Network Process: Decision Making with Dependence and

Feedback, by Thomas L. Saaty.

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