全球机械与建筑行业投资策略分析26页pdf的瑞信研究报告

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根据所提供的信息，这段描述主要描述了一个名为瑞信的公司发布的一份关于全球机械与建筑行业投资策略分析报告。报告共有26页，并提供了以下四位研究分析师的联系方式：Jamie Cook、Themis Davris、Kevin Wilson和Alexander Khan。瑞信是一家全球性的金融服务公司，该公司为客户提供各类金融产品和服务。这份报告主要关注全球机械与建筑行业，并提供了该行业的投资策略分析。报告的作者是四位瑞信的研究分析师，他们分别是Jamie Cook、Themis Davris、Kevin Wilson和Alexander Khan。这四位分析师具备丰富的研究分析经验，并且在这个领域具有专业的CFA认证。通过提供联系方式，读者有机会与这四位分析师进一步交流或咨询。他们的联系方式分别是：Jamie Cook的电话号码是212-538-6098，电子邮件是jamie.cook@csg.com；Themis Davris的电话号码是44 207 888 1060，电子邮件是themis.davris@csg.com；Kevin Wilson的电话号码是212-325-5079，电子邮件是kevin.wilson@csg.com；Alexander Khan的电话号码是212-325-7714，电子邮件是alexander.khan@csg.com。此外，报告提到了“DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF”，这暗示了在报告的后面有一个附录，其中包含了重要的披露信息、分析师的资质认证、法律实体披露以及相关信息的状态。总之，这份报告是由瑞信公司的四位研究分析师撰写的一份关于全球机械与建筑行业投资策略分析的报告。通过提供联系方式，读者可以进一步了解和咨询这四位分析师，并且报告后面的附录包含了一些重要的披露信息和相关的认证。

5/3/2019

EME grew an impressive 13% organically benefiting from the timing of the production schedule and

strength in France the UK and Spain. Overall good margin performance was tied to higher

production which was up 1% (up in NA and the EU while in SA AGCO sold some transition stock),

pricing as well as timing of engineering expense. In SA, the segment posted losses as expected

and we are looking for breakeven performance in Q2 to gauge progress with the transition to Tier 3.

AGCO’s tractor order book at the end of Q1 was up in NA despite farmer concerns over the

lingering trade uncertainty and were down in the EU and SA. We would not that the EU order book

faced particularly tough comps given that last year it was overextended on supplier constraints and

carried several new product introductions. We tweak our FY’19-21 EPS to $5.00, $5.50 and $6.00

and increase our TP to $70. Risk: soft commodity prices. Details on Guide: AGCO raised its FY'19

EPS outlook to $4.90 (from $4.60 before) which is above the street at $4.64. Sales are now seen

slightly lower at $9.5B (vs. $9.6B before) though this is largely tied to FX which is seen as a 3.5

point headwind (vs. 2.5 points before) while price is still expected to contribute 2-2.5%. Engineering

is now seen up $10-15M on constant FX (vs. flat before) while tax rate is now lower at 31-32%

(from 32-33% before). Production is now expected up 3% (vs. up 2-3% before). The free cash flow

outlook was maintained at $275-300M, and so was the capex guide at ~$225M. By region AGCO

reaffirmed industry forecasts, still expecting NA industry retail sales up 0-5%, SA up 0-5%, and W.

Europe approximately flat y/y. Q2 sales and EPS growth rates are expected to match the growth

rates included in AGCO’s full year guidance. (Link to Note)

TRUCKS / TRANSPORTS

 CMI Q1’19 – All REaDy For This: Thoughts Post Call: CMI closed up 1% after beating Q1'19

consensus estimates by 11% on a better top line and margin print and raising FY’19 estimates on

an improved margin outlook. The improved margin forecast was largely driven by good execution

and lower mat costs. CMI assumes the 2019 revenue guide is unchanged with some minor tweak

across markets with NAFTA truck and Global construction forecast higher ($175M and $120M

respectively) offset in part by slightly softer Brazil Truck and Power Gen ($50M and $220M

respectively). For 2019, CMI assumes EBITDA margins are positively impacted by price at 80bps,

variable compensation a tailwind of 10bps and warranty helps by 140bps. Tariff and metals are now

less of a headwind in total at ~50bps tied largely to lower metal costs, compared to a 90bps

headwind before. Similar to last quarter, CMI has above average visibility in NA HD truck similar to

the OEs but assumes softer production in Q4'19. While CMI has not guided for 2020 NA HD truck,

we assume CMI is appropriately prepared for the well anticipated US HD downturn. Cash flow

generation continues to be very strong with 75% of OCF forecast to be returned to shareholders via

dividends and repurchases. CMI does not assume any potential impact from the review of the

emissions certification process and compliance in its forecast, which will likely be a slight overhang

on the stock. However more importantly, CMI can still generate ~$14.00 in earnings assuming the

NA truck downturn materializes in 2020 compared to prior trough EPS of $8.50 and screens cheap

in our view with a rock solid balance sheet. We increase our FY2019-2021 EPS to $16.20, $14.05

and $16.00 respectively and apply 15X on our 2021 EPS of $16.00 discounted back twice to derive

our TP of $198 (from $165), given our view that 2021 represents more normalized EPS for CMI.

Bottom line, Q1'19 was step in the right direction with CMI executing on the margin front vs just on

the top line more recently. We reiterate our Outperform. Risks include a NA down cycle as well as a

pullback in emerging markets. (Link to Note)

 PCAR Q1’19 – In Full Swing: Thoughts Post Call: PCAR closed slightly up after beating Q1'19

consensus estimates on better revenues and margin performance. Gross margins came in at

15.0%, at the high end of PCAR's guide. Price realization was 3% in the quarter, offset partially by

some material costs. For Q2'19 deliveries are forecast to be up 2-4% tied largely to North America

whereas Europe will be down based on the normal summer shutdowns expected at ~two weeks.

Gross margins are forecast 14.5-15.0%, again marginally better than estimates but slightly lower at

the mid-point than Q1'19 reflecting a higher mix of truck sales. For Q3'19, PCAR would expect NA

and European production to be more similar. PCAR's visibility in NA remains extended with

backlogs firm through year end, now taking orders for 2020. In Europe visibility remains

comparable with last year, but order intake is down similar to what other Euro OEs have reported.

Parts sales are expected up 5-8% y/y as PCAR executes against its strategic priorities to grow

parts contribution as a percent of total. Relative to industry forecasts and other OEs PCAR remains

fairly optimistic with regards to 2020 whereas most forecast a downturn. Still historically, PCAR is

very quick to react and cut prod. And streamline costs. We tweak our FY19-21 est. to $6.60, $5.50,

and $6.00, and raise our TP to $74. Risks: rollover of NA Class 8 & comp. pressures. Details on

Guide: For Q2'19, deliveries are forecast to be 2-4% higher versus last quarter tied to increased

production in North America and gross margins are forecast in the 14.5-15.0% range. Part sales

are forecast to grow 5-8% for the full year. PCAR slightly raised its 2019 guide for US/Canada

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