纽约联储的公开市场操作：解读货币政策挑战与实施

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"《理解公开市场操作》是一本专门探讨计算机科学领域内货币政策实施的重要教材，特别是聚焦于美国联邦储备银行（Federal Reserve Bank of New York）在日常货币管理中的关键角色。该书的核心内容围绕公开市场操作展开，即通过在公开市场上买卖美国政府证券，来调节银行体系的准备金，从而影响金融市场的资金流动和状况，进而间接影响经济产出、就业和价格水平。在高度竞争的现代金融市场环境下，本书旨在揭示制定和执行美国货币政策所面临的挑战。它详尽地剖析了每日公开市场操作决策所涉及的广泛而复杂的因素，包括市场动态、利率预期、国际影响等。作者迈克尔·阿卡巴·阿赫塔尔（Michael Akbar Akhtar），作为纽约联邦储备银行的副总裁，以其丰富的经验和专业知识，引导读者——无论是学生、金融市场的专业人士还是对货币政策感兴趣的公众——深入理解货币政策决策过程及其对整体经济的影响路径。书中详细阐述了公开市场操作的步骤，从市场分析、目标设定、工具选择到策略执行，以及如何根据市场反馈调整政策，确保政策的有效传导。此外，读者还能了解到开放市场操作与其他宏观经济政策工具之间的协调配合，以及其在全球金融市场中的作用。《理解公开市场操作》是一部实用且富有深度的指南，对于理解现代经济中货币政策的复杂性和实际操作具有重要的参考价值，有助于提升读者对货币政策决策背后逻辑和实践的理解。"

trade rules and regulations and in economic policies

abroad can lower or raise the contribution of the exter-

nal sector to the U.S. economy.

The FOMC also must estimate when, and to

what extent, its own policy actions will affect money,

credit, interest rates, business developments and prices.

Since the state of knowledge about the way the econo-

my works is quite imperfect, policymakers’ understand-

ing of the effects of various influences, including the

effect of monetary policy, is far from certain. Moreover,

the working of the economy changes over time, leading

to changes in its response to policy and nonpolicy fac-

tors. On top of all these difficulties, policymakers do not

have up-to-the-minute, reliable information about the

economy, because of lags in the collection and publica-

tion of data. Even preliminary published data are fre-

quently subject to significant errors that become evident

in subsequent revisions.

In all of this, there is no escape from forecasting

and from using judgment to deal with the uncertainties

of data and the policy process. Indeed, monetary policy

formulation is not a simple technical matter; it is clearly

an art in that it greatly depends on experience, expertise

and judgment.

Operational Approaches

Determining the appropriate reserve market condi-

tions—that is, the desired degree of monetary policy

66 // UUnnddeerrssttaannddiinngg OOppeenn MMaarrkkeett OOppeerraattiioonnss

restraint—also is very complicated. In choosing an oper-

ating strategy, the FOMC attempts to achieve a desired

degree of monetary policy restraint, ease or tightness, by

focusing on the reserve supply relative to demand, and

the associated level of the federal funds rate. The

Domestic Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve

Bank of New York can come reasonably close to meet-

ing short-term objectives for nonborrowed reserves—

supply of reserves excluding discount window borrow-

ing. The contemplated reserve levels are based, of

course, on the FOMC’s desire to induce short-run mon-

etary and financial conditions that will help to achieve

policy goals for the economy.

In principle, the FOMC can aim for direct control

of the quantity of reserves by not accommodating

observed fluctuations in the demand for reserves.

However, this will result in free movements in the federal

funds rate. Alternatively, the FOMC can control the fed-

eral funds rate by adjusting the supply of reserves to

meet all changes in the demand for reserves; this will

allow the quantity of reserves to vary freely. Over the

years, the actual approach has been adapted to chang-

ing circumstances. Sometimes the emphasis has been

on controlling the quantity of reserves; other times, the

federal funds rate.

While the FOMC generally has not aimed at pre-

cise control of the quantity of reserves, the operating

strategy from October 1979 to late 1982 was closely

consistent with this approach. Concerned over rapidly

accelerating inflation in the late 1970s, the Committee

sought changes in its operating procedures in order to

control money stock growth more effectively. In October

1979, the Committee began targeting nonborrowed

reserves, allowing the federal funds rate to fluctuate

freely within a wide and flexible range. Under this

approach, the targeted path for nonborrowed reserves

was based on the FOMC’s growth objectives

for M1—currency, checkable deposits

and travelers checks of nonbank issuers.

M1 growth in excess of the Committee’s

objectives would cause the depository

institutions’ demand for reserves to out-

strip the nonborrowed reserves target,

putting upward pressures on the funds

rate and other short-term rates. The rise

in interest rates, in turn, would reduce

the growth in checkable deposits and

other low-yielding instruments, bringing money stock

growth back toward the Committee’s objectives.

The reserve targeting procedure from 1979 to

1982 gradually came to provide assurance to financial

markets and the public at large that the Federal Reserve

would not underwrite a continuation of high and acceler-

ating inflation. Reinforcing this procedure’s built-in effects

on money market conditions were judgmental changes

in nonborrowed reserve objectives and in the discount

rate. Monetary policy contributed importantly to lowering

the inflation rate sharply, albeit not without a significant

increase in interest rate volatility and a period of marked

decline in output.

The historical relationship between M1 and the

economy broke down in the early 1980s, leading the

FOMC to de-emphasize its control of M1 during 1982. In

late 1982, the Committee abandoned the formal reserve

targeting procedure and moved toward accommodating

short-run fluctuations in the demand for

reserves, while limiting their effects

on the federal funds rate.

Subsequently, ongoing deregulation

and financial innovation precluded a

return to the use of numerical objec-

tives for M1 and the nonborrowed

reserve targeting procedure.

As a consequence, since 1982,

the Federal Reserve’s operating proce-

dures have focused on achieving a particu-

lar degree of tightness or ease in reserve market condi-

tions rather than on the quantity of reserves. Specifically,

the FOMC expresses its operating directives in terms of

a desired degree of reserve pressure—that is, the costs

and other conditions for the availability of reserves to the

banking system—which is associated with an average

level of the federal funds rate. The approach for evaluat-

ing the degree of reserve pressure, however, has

UUnnddeerrssttaannddiinngg OOppeenn MMaarrkkeett OOppeerraattiioonnss // 77

Monetary policy

formulation is not a

simple technical matter;

it is clearly an art in

that it greatly depends

on experience, expertise

and judgment.

changed over time. As discussed in detail in Chapter 5,

discount window borrowing targets were used as the

main factor for assessing reserve availability conditions

during 1983-87, but they have not played a significant

role through much of the subsequent period.

Under the current approach, the FOMC uses the

federal funds rate as the principal guide for evaluating

reserve availability conditions and indicates a desired

level of the federal funds rate. This judgmental approach

involves estimating the demand for and supply of

reserves, and accommodating all significant changes in

the demand for reserves through adjustments in the sup-

ply of nonborrowed reserves. It allows for only modest

day-to-day variations in the funds rate around the level

intended by the Committee.

Financial Markets

The money market—which includes the federal funds

market—provides the natural point of contact between

the Federal Reserve and the financial system. The money

market is a term used for wholesale markets in short-

term credit or IOUs, comprising debt instruments matur-

ing within one year. The market is international in scope

and helps in economizing on the use of cash or money.

Borrowers who are the issuers of short-term IOUs—gen-

erally, the U.S. Treasury, banks, business corporations

and finance companies—can bridge differences in the

timing of receipts and payments or can defer long-term

borrowing to a more propitious time. The market allows

the lenders—businesses, households or governmental

units—to offset uneven flows of funds by allowing them

to invest in short-term interest-earning assets that can

be readily converted into cash with little risk of loss. They

can also time their purchases of bonds and stocks to

their particular views of long-term interest rates and

stock prices.

The main instruments of the money market are

federal funds, Treasury bills, repurchase agreements

(RPs), Eurodollar deposits, certificates of deposits (CDs),

bankers acceptances, commercial paper, municipal

notes and federal agency short-term securities (see

Figure 2-2 for definitions of instruments). The stock-in-

trade of the market includes a large portion of the U.S.

Treasury debt and federal agency securities. The daily

dollar volume in this market is very large, several times

that of the most active trading days on the New York

Stock Exchange.

Banks are at the center of the money market,

with their customer deposits and their own reserve bal-

ances at the Federal Reserve serving as the core ele-

ment in the flow of funds. Large banks borrow and lend

huge sums of money, on a daily basis, through the fed-

eral funds market. They are also particularly active in the

markets for RPs, Eurodollars and bankers acceptances.

Many banks act as dealers in money market securities,

while many others offer short-term investment services.

88 // UUnnddeerrssttaannddiinngg OOppeenn MMaarrkkeett OOppeerraattiioonnss

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纽约联储的公开市场操作：解读货币政策挑战与实施

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